PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate looks back at the Mustangs' last-second victory over Louisiana Tech and previews SMU's game Saturday at Fort Worth.

Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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Nate says that if the Mustangs want to hang on to the Iron Skillet with a win Saturday in Fort Worth, they must apply considerable pressure to TCU quarterback Max Duggan (photo by gofrogs.com).

SMU is (somehow) 3-0 after a complete miracle win over Louisiana Tech in Ruston. The 39-37 win over the Bulldogs is certainly the most memorable win for SMU in years, as the Ponies prevailed on a Reggie Roberson tip drill touchdown catch as time expired. Tanner Mordecai’s 33-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass was indeed a miracle, but perhaps a scripted miracle.

It was revealed after the game that the Mustangs call that play “Big Ben” and practice it every Friday. Mordecai buys time to get his receivers down in the end zone and throws the ball up, and one receiver is supposed to leak off to the side while one receiver jumps up and tries to tip it over to his teammate. Rashee Rice and Reggie Roberson executed it to perfection, and if a statistic existed for assists in football, Rice would get one.

The Mustangs were able to escape LaTech with a miracle win and preserve their undefeated record despite a very sloppy performance. But winning in that fashion must be an incredible boost in morale and momentum for the team as they head into the Battle for the Iron Skillet.

The annual matchup with TCU is by far the game in which SMU seems to bring the most juice and intensity, and the quotes coming out of SMU this week would indicate as much. Rice provided some bulletin board material for the rival Frogs. “After we won that [Iron] Skillet, they were scared to play us,” Rice said. “I’m going to say that again: they were scared to play us.” Rice is referencing the controversy on the 2020 matchup between the two schools being cancelled and not rescheduled.

Rice also took a jab at Fort Worth, saying, “It’s always going to be Dallas vs. Fort Worth, but no one comes to Texas for Fort Worth. They come for Dallas. And the fact that a bunch of us are waiting for them — they’re ranked, I don’t know why, but they’re ranked — and we’re just ready to go take them.”

You can debate all you want about how smart or immature it may have been of Rice to poke the bear like that and provide bulletin board material for the Frogs, but things like that are what make rivalries great. SMU has significantly closed the gap between itself and TCU and that is good for the rivalry and good for the DFW area. This is a great local rivalry and local college football is better when these two teams compete.

Both teams are coming off sloppy wins. TCU routed Duquesne and followed it up with a sloppy two-point win over California in a game in which the Frogs were heavily favored. TCU is again heavily favored in this matchup as the spread currently has SMU as nine-point underdogs.

(photo by gofrogs.com).

Max Duggan is still the Frogs’ signal-caller and is off to a decent start. He is coming off a four-touchdown performance against Cal in which he threw for 234 yards and rushed for 71 yards. There are some very interesting numbers on him through two games, per Pro Football Focus. His average depth of target on non-screen passes has increased each year since 2019 from 12.4 yards to 14.0 yards to 17.4 yards so far this season. His average depth of target from a clean pocket is the highest in the Big 12 and the 10th-highest in the country. This tells me that as Duggan has matured as a quarterback, has Gary Patterson’s trust and is utilizing play action more (more on the play action in a moment).

Duggan’s favorite target at the end of 2020 has not changed in 2021. After capping the 2020 season with a pair of 100-yard games, Quentin Johnson has blossomed into a strong receiver who is capable of making an explosive play. Over 40 percent of his career receiving yards have come after the catch, per PFF. In 2020, he averaged 8.9 yards after the catch per reception, which ranked first in the Big 12 and 12th in the country. He is off to a hot start in 2021 after catching five balls for 95 yards and two scores against Cal. The rest of Duggan’s weapons have all been explosive, as his top three targets each average more than 14 yards per catch. For an SMU defense that struggled with tackling last week, that will need to improve Saturday.

Part of what has improved TCU’s passing game so much is a fantastic running game. Once committed to — and then released by — Georgia, Zach Evans has blossomed into a really nice running back. He is coming off of a 22-carry, 190-yard performance against Cal. TCU’s offensive line has been very good in the run game as Evans has averaged eight yards per carry but the unit has struggled to protect Duggan as he has been pressured 15 times in two games. That is certainly an area in which SMU defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt will look to attack TCU.

While TCU’s offense appears to be humming for the first time in a few years, the defense always will be solid under Patterson. The unit lost significant amounts of talent but still returrned some stars. The Frogs return two All-Big 12 players. Tre-Vius Hodges-Tomlinson is coming off a First Team All Big 12 selection and is one of the best corners in the country. Hodges-Tomlinson had the second-highest PFF coverage grade among all returning DBs this season.

TCU also has defensive end Ochaun Mathis, who is coming off a nine-sack 2020 season, was Second Team All-Big 12 in 2020 and is one of the best pass rushers in the country. SMU’s offensive tackles will have their hands full Saturday. Mathis was on ESPN’s preseason All-America Team and is preseason All-Big 12. Mathis has one sack through two games and was very effective against Cal. He voiced his feelings on Saturday’s matchup, saying, “That last loss we had two years back — we still got a nasty taste in our mouth and we’re just ready to come out there and ball out.”

The status of two key starters, cornerback Noah Daniels and defensive lineman Khari Coleman, is in doubt. Daniels and Coleman have yet to play this season and Patterson did not provide an update on them in Tuesday’s press conference. Coleman was the 2020 Big 12 Co-Defensive Freshman of the Year.

Cal had a lot of success against the TCU defense, racking up over 440 total yards, with 309 of those yards coming through the air. Cal averaged a bit under five yards per carry. TCU’s defense is still very talented, so it will still be a difficult task, but I imagine Sonny Dykes and Garrett Riley will be going over exactly what Cal did.

There are many keys to the game for SMU to pull off a second straight upset over TCU. There are a few that stick out to me the most. The Mustangs will need to be much better in the red zone than they were in Ruston, as those margins are much tighter against better competition and any time a team gets in to the red zone against a good defense, it has to cash in. SMU is talented enough offensively to move the ball; it will just come down to cashing in red zone chances for seven points.

Defensively it will be about limiting the big plays and tackling. One weakness TCU has that can be exploited is pass protection, so it will be very important for the SMU defensive front to put heat on Duggan and force some mistakes.

This game will be a lot of fun and it will be a welcome sight to see the two rivals going at it on the gridiron again. The juice is clearly there for this matchup from both sides. SMU has always brought some extra intensity for the TCU game but now that SMU won the most recent matchup and has not been shy about it on social media and in the media, the Mustangs have the Horned Frogs’ attention. I think this one will come down to the wire, but it will be tough for SMU’s defense to get enough stops on the Frogs. The Ponies keep it close, but the Skillet will go back to Fort Worth.

Nate’s take: TCU 35, SMU 31

Nate says the SMU offensive line will have its hands full against a talented TCU defensive line, which is led by defensive end Ochaun Mathis, who had nine sacks last season (photo by gofrogs.com).