Pony NATE-tion: Will SMU remain unbeaten against resurgent Navy team?
Mustangs, Midshipmen kick off at 2:30 Saturday
Posted on 10/06/2021 by PonyFans.com
PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate looks back at the Mustangs' victory over USF and previews SMU's game in Annapolis, Md., against the Naval Academy.

Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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Navy quarterback Tai Lavatai ran for a pair of scores and helped the Navy offense rush for 348 rushing yards against UCF (photo by navysports.com).
The No. 24 SMU Mustangs are back in the top 25 for the third consecutive season, a feat that has not been achieved since the Pony Express days. This new ranking comes after the Ponies took care of South Florida, 41-17, in a game that was closer than that score would indicate. SMU was able to pull away in the third quarter after USF closed the lead to 17-10. From there the Mustangs went on a 24-7 run and the game was on ice by the early fourth quarter.

The impressive part about this outing was that the Ponies ran for 162 yards and averaged 4.1 yards per carry without leading rusher and workhorse Ulysses Bentley. Tre Siggers ran for 86 yards and a score in place of Bentley, as Siggers has been a welcome addition behind Bentley. Siggers has rushed for more than 50 yards in four straight games and is averaging 98 yards per game over the last two weeks. Not only did the offensive line put out a great run-blocking output, but quarterback Tanner Mordecai was not sacked … again.

It was a quiet afternoon for tight end Grant Calcaterra, but Mordecai continued his torrid pace to start the season as he is now up to 24 passing touchdowns through five weeks. Mordecai threw four touchdowns to Danny Gray (twice), Rashee Rice and Reggie Roberson. Gray and Rice both have scored each week and have scored a combined 13 touchdowns so far.

Jim Leavitt’s defense continued its early success; SMU held the Bulls to 336 total yards, and allowed USF to convert just two of its 11 third downs. The SMU defense has been greatly improved on many fronts so far, especially in the red zone. The Mustangs rank 20th in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) in red zone efficiency. “Club Takeaway” also has been quite active through five weeks as SMU ranks seventh in takeaways.

(photo by navysports.com).
The Mustangs now take their undefeated record and top-25 ranking to Annapolis to take on Navy. SMU has won two of the last three matchups with the Midshipmen, but generally has struggled against Navy, which has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the two schools.

Navy is riding high after an upset victory over UCF. It was Navy’s first victory of the season after getting blown out by Marshall and Air Force and dropping a close one to Houston. With the momentum of a big-time comeback victory over UCF, this is not a game that should be taken lightly, especially given SMU’s general struggles against Navy.

Offensively, Navy has been a bit of a quarterback carousel, but Tai Lavatai returned from injury against UCF and presumably will be keeping the job after the win. Lavatai only threw four passes but rushed for two touchdowns and orchestrated the triple-option attack to the tune of 348 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry.

Lavatai’s top three runners that flank him are Isaac Ruoss, James Harris II and Carlinos Acie. Ruoss leads the team in rushing with 211 yards and two scores. Harris is not far behind with 196 yards, and Acie only has 114 yards but has been the most explosive back with 7.1 yards per carry. Mychal Cooper is still Navy’s leading receiver with 128 yards on just six catches.

Navy’s offense has struggled mightily so far apart from the nice performance against UCF. The Mids rank 99th in points (just 16 points per game) and 112th in yards per play, and have been horrid in the red zone, ranking 128th in red zone efficiency (five touchdowns in 15 attempts). Club Takeaway may be in session Saturday as well, given that Navy has turned the ball over to the tune of ranking 102nd in giveaways, with six giveaways through four games.

Defensively, Navy is still led by linebacker Diego Fagot, who leads the team in tackles, tackles for loss, sacks and quarterback hits. For context, Fagot leads with 39 tackles and the second-leading tackler has 21 tackles. Fagot was on many outlets’ preseason First Team All-American Athletic Conference teas.

Despite another good season from Fagot, the Navy defense has struggled. The Mids rank 55th in total defense, but are 110th in scoring defense, surrendering 32.5 points per game. The defense ranks 89th in third down conversion rate as opponents are converting around 41 percent of their third downs.

Navy head coach Ken Niuamatalolo’s team always will be ready and competitive, but Navy does not have the talent to beat SMU. The Mustangs offense is humming too much and is on enough of a scoring roll to the point that Navy can not keep up.

One key area in which there is a big mismatch is SMU’s third down defense against Navy’s poor third down offense. If SMU is able to continuously get off the field on third down, this game won’t be terribly close.

This just feels like a mismatch all the way around and the Mids don’t have nearly enough firepower to keep up. I like the Ponies by a couple scores here.

Nate’s take: SMU 38, Navy 24

Linebacker Diego Fagot leads the Navy defense in tackles, tackles for loss, sacks and quarterback hits (photo by navysports.com).

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