PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate looks back at the Mustangs' loss at Memphis and previews Saturday's home game against UCF.

Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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Mikey Keene has led the UCF offense ever since starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel went down with a shoulder injury (photo by ucfknights.com).

The SMU Mustangs now sit at 7-2 and are all but eliminated from American Athletic Conference championship contention. Not only are the Mustangs all but eliminated from the race for the AAC crown, they are also without a win over a team that is above .500 on the season. The TCU win was impressive, but the Frogs have not been good, and SMU has yet to beat a good team. This season has unfortunately followed the similar trend of 2019 and 2020, with a strong start against lesser competition was followed by the team stumbling once the competition stiffened.

After the brutal loss to Houston, the Mustangs again were derailed by a slow start against Memphis and the deficit was too much to overcome. The defense gave SMU one last chance as the offense got the ball back down three points with plenty of time, but Tanner Mordecai threw an untimely interception. The biggest problem for SMU Saturday was the offensive line, as Mordecai was under fire all afternoon. Mordecai was sacked five times after being sacked five times total all season long. Alan Ali’s absence due to injury was clearly impactful on the offense.

After two straight losses knocked SMU out of the Associated Press top 25, the Mustangs still have an opportunity to finish strong and get to double-digit wins on the season. The schedule certainly isn’t easy with home games against UCF and Tulsa and a trip to Cincinnati, which is ranked No. 2 in the AP top 25, No. 3 in the coaches’ poll and No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but the Mustangs definitely can play spoiler on Cincy’s dream season next week.

But the task at hand is head coach Gus Malzahn’s UCF team that has been incredibly banged up throughout the season but comes in with a 6-3 record. After a sluggish 3-3 start, the Golden Knights are playing good ball again and are riding a three-game winning streak with wins over Memphis, Tulane and Temple.

(photo by ucfknights.com).

Offensively, UCF has been solid, ranking fourth in the AAC in scoring, and it has come primarily on the heels of a very strong rushing attack. UCF’s 187 rushing yards per game ranks third in the AAC. With quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s injury, Mikey Keene has been UCF’s signal-caller and has been competent. Keene is completing 65 percent of his passes and has thrown 12 touchdowns to just six interceptions. The ground game has been led by Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson, who have combined for 974 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Richardson has been more explosive, averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

Keene primarily leans on leading wideouts Ryan O’Keefe and Brandon Johnson, as O’Keefe leads the team by a longshot in receptions (58) and yards (582). Johnson leads the team in touchdowns with nine. UCF has also had some turnover struggles, turning the ball over 13 times this year. The Knights are converting a middling 38 percent of their third-down attempts as well.

UCF has thrived primarily on its defense, which ranks third in the AAC in total defense, third in passing defense and fourth in scoring defense. The Knights have a knack for taking the ball away with 16 takeaways this season. UCF has been solid on third down as well, with opponents converting just 38 percent of their third downs. UCF’s defense has surrendered just three touchdowns in three weeks.

The leaders of UCF’s defense are linebackers Bryson Armstrong and Tatum Bethune, who lead the team in tackles with 77 and 66, respectively. Defensive back Quadric Bullard is quite versatile, ranking third on the team in tackles, second in passes defended, has a forced fumble, and has two sacks. Defensive back Davonte Brown leads the defense in passes defended with seven and also has an interception to his name. The star of the defense is defensive tackle Big Kat Bryant, who was a stud at Auburn and followed his coach to UCF. Bryant leads the team with 4.5 sacks and is a massive concern for SMU’s offensive line after a rough outing against Memphis.

One thing to keep an eye on: SMU head coach Sonny Dykes indicated to the media that we will potentially see the first significant Preston Stone action. Stone is an incredibly highly-touted recruit and expectations are high for him. “I think as the season rolls on and we're kind of where we are now, I think we're going to try to figure out ways to get him in the game,” Dykes said, “and if we think there's something that he can do to help us win, we're certainly not afraid to put him in a football game.”

This is a significant gut-check game for the Mustangs. Dykes’ name has been mentioned in other coaching searches, the team is a bit banged up and pretty much out of any significant postseason contention, has lost two straight, is dealing with an early kickoff and is dealing with the proposition of faltering late in the season for the third year in a row. These last three weeks will show a lot about this program and the direction it is headed.

I think the Mustangs get it done Saturday but in a closer fashion than some expect. UCF’s defense can exploit some of the weaknesses that the offensive line displayed against Memphis enough to keep the game close. I anticipate a bit of a sloppy game given UCF’s playing style. This will be a fun early afternoon game at Ford Stadium. I’ve got the Ponies in a close one.

Nate’s take: SMU 27, UCF 24