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Pony NATE-tion: Can SMU slow down hot Navy squad?
Mustangs, Midshipmen face off Saturday in Annapolis
Posted on 11/10/2015 by PonyFans.com
PonyFans.com is proud to welcome back, for his third season as a columnist, Nate, who is 15 years old, in ninth grade, might want to be a sports writer and knows more about football than a lot of people who already make their living covering sports. He will offer his thoughts and will preview each game throughout the season, looking at a key player, matchup or statistic that could prove relevant in each upcoming game … and explain why it will impact the outcome. Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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The Navy option offense is steered by all-everything quarterback, who is tied with former Wisconsin running back Montee Ball for the most rushing touchdowns in FBS history (photo by navysports.com).
This Mustang team is close — oh, so close.

SMU fell to 1-8 after a fantastic game under the Friday night lights, in what was probably the best game the Mustangs have played all season. Unfortunately, a late “pick six” and an unnecessary two-point conversion distorted the score into a 20-point Temple win. The game was not that way at all, as SMU had the ball trailing 45-40 with about five minutes to go. SMU got a first down and seemed to be moving the ball, but on fourth down, Tyler Matakevich made an outstanding play by batting down a ball intended for a wide-open Jeremiah Gaines.

The most remarkable part of this game was this little fact: the most points the fantastic Temple defense had surrendered all season was 26. SMU easily scored 40 points Friday night (31 of which came from the offense, with a Braeden West touchdown on special teams and a safety when the SMU defense forced a holding penalty in the Temple end zone). So the Mustangs can’t let the fact that they lost blind them from the fact that they played a great game, and their future is very bright.

Things don’t get any easier for the 1-8 Mustangs, now heading to Annapolis to face one of the best Navy teams in years. The Midshipmen sit at 7-1 and come into the game off of a really impressive win 45-20 over then-No. 13 Memphis. This game spoke volumes — not about Navy’s offense, as it was well known that Memphis didn’t have a very good defense, but about the Navy defense, which shut down what is a very potent and very hot Memphis offense led by the quarterback some are projecting to be the top passer chosen in next year’s NFL draft: Paxton Lynch. The Midshipmen forced three turnovers and dominated the ground game, outgaining their adversaries, 374-133.

Stemming from that, SMU has not been able to slow down the ground game this year, and the Navy triple option attack just might run through the SMU defense. It has been the option run, not the power run, that has given the Mustangs trouble this year, which could make for a tough Saturday for SMU, a team that is 125th in the country in points against, surrendering 45.4 points per game.

One weak spot that SMU might attack is Navy’s lack of pass defense. I expect a slow day for the likes of Xavier Jones and Prescott Line against a Navy defense that allows just 135.5 rushing yards (third in the American Athletic Conference) and third in points allowed (19.0) per game. That means the burden will shift to guys like Matt Davis and Courtland Sutton. Last week, Davis repeatedly lobbed the ball up for Sutton, drawing lots of defensive attention. Sutton did haul in a couple, which was one less than the number of pass interference flags he drew against the Temple defense. Also, the use of Jeremiah Gaines has continued to increase and his production has really picked up. Gaines has started to turn into a security blanket for Davis when he’s not blowing open holes as a fullback. Gaines had a solid night. He had only two catches but made them count with 50 receiving yards and a touchdown. Gaines led SMU in receiving yards. Davis will have to rely on his arm more and will have a tougher time running the ball. My guess is he likely won’t match his ground game production he had last week, when he ran for 102 yards and a touchdown and SMU will need more than 167 yards and an interception in the passing game from Davis.

The Midshipmen have lost just two games in their last 15 games played, both to Notre Dame. They’ll have another large home-field advantage, especially coming off of a statement win. The rest of the games are all must-wins for Navy as the home stretch of the race for the American Athletic Conference title begins, locked in its race with undefeated Houston. Both teams are undefeated in AAC play, and the games become more and more important. SMU won’t get much offense going, and Navy’s triple option will pick apart SMU’s defense. Make it just two losses in their last 16 for the Midshipmen.

Nate’s take: Navy 45, SMU 17

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