Realignment Update

[Topper]

Memphis would fit perfectly in the Big 12 - backwater market, low academics, singular sports success, secondary appeal in their market….but, it will [deleted] me off if they get some sort of invite before us, really [deleted] me off. Memphis is a JC on roids , at best.

They already took Houston so what is one more JUCO? Yeah it sucks to be not invited to the party but, hopefully, we'll get invited to the prom and won't have mourn over not going to the sock hop. The diminished Pac12>>>the diminished Big12. The Big12 fans and admins know this. That is why they are praying (preying?) to snatch a PAC12 member or two. Any existing PAC12 member would likely be favored to win the Big12 conference their first year. Don't know if that is incentive enough to make any of the schools jump to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

The Big 12 has lost 5 flagship state schools plus A&M. Of course it would strengthen their conference to add any of the PACs remaining 6 flagships.

[EastStang]

Whatever happens, we have to win the conference we’re in. It’s the best positioned G5 conference. Schools in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Birmingham, Memphis, Tampa, South Florida, Charlotte, DC area, Philly. Some big media markets there. We win and go into those markets it will generate hype in the eastern press. So, right now, let’s make ourselves so attractive that we can flip the bird at conferences who offer us a breadcrumb deal or who shunned us. Let’s just win.

[SMUstang]

True, second or third place in the conference in football will not only not get it. It would help if we had a basketball team too if we aspire to a P5 conference.

[mtrout]

True, second or third place in the conference in football will not only not get it. It would help if we had a basketball team too if we aspire to a P5 conference.

Winning helps but we think we might make a P5 off of a decade of being 5th in the AAC.

[Statler]

Looks like story originated from Canzano but is now out there. Keep your fingers crossed.

https://theathletic.com/4597841/2023/06/09/pac-12-media-rights-washington-state/?amp=1

[GHammond]

It’s now being reported that the Big 12 commish DID NOT visit Memphis.

[Arkpony]

I just cannot envision even the B12 stooping so low as to go after the likes of that school in Memphis.

[Topper]

I just cannot envision even the B12 stooping so low as to go after the likes of that school in Memphis.

They have Baylor with their shameful Title IX violations and history of rape and murder. They have TCU with its unethical interference with our head coach halfway into the season. They have Tech and OSU who are academic bottom feeders. What do you really expect?

[max the wonder dog]

Sports Illustrated Update from CardinalCountry.com (Stanford) reporter:

1. Canzanzo says PAC 12 TV package will top Big 12 deal.

2. Vegas odds maker sets hypothetical line on expansion. SDSU the favorite, SMU in the 2 slot.

https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/ranking-the-eight-pac-12-expansion-candidates-based-off-their-odds-to-join-the-conference#gid=ci02c1cebeb005256b&pid=boise-state

[mtrout]

Are there actual odds on this anywhere that I can bet? Dude puts SMU at +400 and SDSU at +200? Is he basically saying it's likely no teams get added?

[EastStang]

Go to your local sports book and see. You can pretty much bet on anything these days. We have a casino in Maryland right across the river from where I live and work.

[Topper]

Boise, Colorado State, UNLV and Fresno will only be considered for the PAC if they decide to make the jump to 14 teams. It would make a lot of sense to have a presence in Las Vegas, but UNLV is not a highly selective school and I don't get the impression that Stanford, Cal or Washington in particular would care to be in the same conference. The kid who does the Locked on PAC 12 podcast is fairly savvy. He says that there is a 10% chance that there will be no expansion, an 80% chance that the PAC will expand to 12, and a 10% chance that they will go to 14 teams. SDSU and SMU are the only schools that he sees realistically being invited if the league goes to 12 and Colorado and/or Arizona don't bolt for some reason.

[WordUpBU]

Boise, Colorado State, UNLV and Fresno will only be considered for the PAC if they decide to make the jump to 14 teams. It would make a lot of sense to have a presence in Las Vegas, but UNLV is not a highly selective school and I don't get the impression that Stanford, Cal or Washington in particular would care to be in the same conference. The kid who does the Locked on PAC 12 podcast is fairly savvy. He says that there is a 10% chance that there will be no expansion, an 80% chance that the PAC will expand to 12, and a 10% chance that they will go to 14 teams. SDSU and SMU are the only schools that he sees realistically being invited if the league goes to 12 and Colorado and/or Arizona don't bolt for some reason.

If there's questions on the media deal as-is I don't see an appetite for 14. Those other two would only be if they lost 4-6 IMO. Boise makes tv rating sense but the others really don't and the Bronco's come with academics that Stanford & Cal would puke at. UNLV & CSU are among the worst MWC teams in tv ratings so I struggle to see them making sense. Nevada isn't a huge state and they already get Denver as an in-footprint negotiation for network carriage fees on the cable revenue side. I don't see how those make expansion money work unless the PAC has been hit again.


I realistically see only 2 scenarios if they lose nobody.

Stay at ten because the financials say to- like the Big 12 in 2016 which I think is more likely based on who's been reported to be bidding still.

Go to 12 because giving SMU/SDSU lesser shares makes the financials work with the added 13-14 games added to the inventory being monetized efficiently enough. If they have a tv partner paying above X per game for those it makes sense. If they don't and it's a streamer who's trying to push subscriptions or a network who can't give a good enough rate that the inventory isn't assured $X per game they'll likely stand at ten.

SMU's ideal scenario is all ten stay and expand by two.

SMU's greatest odds of an invite IMO is if they lose 2 or more although the destination would lose some of the luster.

[dickey1331]

Looks like SD St is going

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... plans-exit


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[mtrout]

yesss...power move. literally.

SDSU and Yormack are on the same page (yolo / lfg). SMU and Kliavkoff wait.