PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

[SMUstang]

As I said, we'll see but at a minimum I think the PAC will target Kansas and Oklahoma State. The way I see it: B1G>SEC>PAC>ACC>Big XII>AAC>MWC>Sunbelt>MAC>C-USA. Although it's a toss-up between the top two. Realignment tends to surprise even the experts.

[Dukie]

As I said, we'll see but at a minimum I think the PAC will target Kansas and Oklahoma State. The way I see it: B1G>SEC>PAC>ACC>Big XII>AAC>MWC>Sunbelt>MAC>C-USA. Although it's a toss-up between the top two. Realignment tends to surprise even the experts.

The ACC is better than the PAC, probably today and certainly after the LA schools leave. If you’re trying to bake in Clemson and others leaving the ACC a decade or more from now, well, that’s not a terrible prediction but who knows.

[crispy_taco]

Dukie, to each his own, but I think that the PAC is better than ACC right now. Although I would prefer SMU to join the ACC but that doesn’t look possible. PAC you’ve got several teams who have put together highly successful seasons since that Jameis Jimbo Florida State team. Oregon, Washington, Utah have all had great seasons recently. ACC you’ve got Clemson obviously doing well and Florida state treading water in that time frame. Miami is honestly becoming an afterthought at this point, they’re downright embarrassing sometimes

[JasonB]

As I said, we'll see but at a minimum I think the PAC will target Kansas and Oklahoma State. The way I see it: B1G>SEC>PAC>ACC>Big XII>AAC>MWC>Sunbelt>MAC>C-USA. Although it's a toss-up between the top two. Realignment tends to surprise even the experts.

The Big 12 announced their TV contract. That TV contract extension does not exist unless the schools sign. ALL of the Big 12 schools are locked in. They don't have the ability to go anywhere. I recognize there is a lot of of speculation as to who signed what, but the conference can't sign a media package without schools signing onto it.

[CA Mustang]

As I said, we'll see but at a minimum I think the PAC will target Kansas and Oklahoma State. The way I see it: B1G>SEC>PAC>ACC>Big XII>AAC>MWC>Sunbelt>MAC>C-USA. Although it's a toss-up between the top two. Realignment tends to surprise even the experts.

The Big 12 announced their TV contract. That TV contract extension does not exist unless the schools sign. ALL of the Big 12 schools are locked in. They don't have the ability to go anywhere. I recognize there is a lot of of speculation as to who signed what, but the conference can't sign a media package without schools signing onto it.

You can announce the parties have reached agreement on a deal. Nothing wrong with that. But until all parties sign, it isn't official. Sure the commissioner may have signed, but every school in full agreement and with their own legal approval? That's doubtful.

[3rdGenPony]

As I said, we'll see but at a minimum I think the PAC will target Kansas and Oklahoma State. The way I see it: B1G>SEC>PAC>ACC>Big XII>AAC>MWC>Sunbelt>MAC>C-USA. Although it's a toss-up between the top two. Realignment tends to surprise even the experts.

The Big 12 announced their TV contract. That TV contract extension does not exist unless the schools sign. ALL of the Big 12 schools are locked in. They don't have the ability to go anywhere. I recognize there is a lot of of speculation as to who signed what, but the conference can't sign a media package without schools signing onto it.

Not positive, but I believe the Big 12 agreement was reported by the media, but I don’t think the Big 12 ever made an announcement, which would lead me to think the ink is not dry.

[ponyboy]

What do we think is going to happen? Houston is backing out? Lol. No.

[tristatecoog]

https://twitter.com/big12conference/sta ... aKh6SFWtgA

[SMUstang]

If I'm not mistaken, the only conference with a GOR that actually keeps teams from moving is the ACC's. Obviously not the PAC or the Big 12 or the AAC as demonstrated recently. The AAC tried unsuccessfully for a binding GOR last contract negotiation. It's still open season for realignment and it is based unfortunately mostly on money and the PAC's new contract value is TBD.

[JasonB]

The Big 12 deal was announced in the same manner and language as the Big 10 deal. It's done.

[SMUstang]

Granted that the Big 12 extension makes it less likely that they will be poached by another conference, but it doesn't preclude further realignment. And if they are, ESPN and Fox can re-negotiate their contract. I still think that they are behind the PAC and the ACC in the pecking order. The PAC is in the process of negotiating their contract, and it is very unlikely that they will add any school that doesn't add significant value, given that they just lost USC and UCLA. Expect 4 or 5 or more additions, including some surprises.

[3rdGenPony]

If the new Big 12 GOR deal that runs from July 2025 through 2031 is signed, none of those teams are leaving anytime soon. They are locked in for the foreseeable future.

[Nedward]

Yes. Stop the mental masturbation. Big 12 teams are not going anywhere outside those two guys the world knows about.

Things going well with PAC. But speculate freely if it makes you happy. Or wait another 45 days or so.

[Topper]

Has anyone actually seen any of these media contracts? I am guessing that they are the size of the old Dallas telephone book and probably cover all sorts of evantualities, including many that none of us have ever thought about. If there is enough money involved all bets are off.

[SMUstang]

According to CBSsports.com:
The current Big 12 deal isn't finalized until the partners sign what is called the long-form contract. That includes the final grant of rights that secures schools TV rights to the conference for the term of the deal. However Big 12 sources say it is safe to assume the league wouldn't have done a deal with ESPN and Fox without the "commitment" of the conference's board of directors (school presidents).

So in my view, realignment is still on the table. However it is an open question as to who raids who. The Big 12 or the Pac 12 or neither. It will probably come down to which conference has the highest contract value or visibility. Or if the Pac 12 chooses to remain at 10 and lose the value of USC and UCLA. Or expand from the G5 ranks and loses value. In either of these cases, in which they lose value, the Pac 12 would likely lose additional members, and their placement in the pecking order of FBS conferences.