EA Sports NCAA Football 2006 Predicts...

[BrianTinBigD]

A Mustang victory over Baylor!

I ran several different scenarios on the game. I used 5,7, and 15 minute quarters on the system. 5 minute quarters are the closest to real games based on the number of plays that occur in that time frame.

Only the Xbox played both sides. There was no cheating by using special players. It was strictly this years roster for both teams. No injuries were involved before the game started. I ran 3 5minute quarter games. SMU won all 3. 28-17, 28-10, 31-13.

I ran one 7 minute quarter game and SMU won 52-34.

Finally I ran 2 15minute quarter games. These games are rather interesting in that they really are like playing 3 games to one 1 real game. SMU won the first game 93-45 and the second game was SMU 103-58. So it appears that the longer the teams play the better SMU does.

SMU Highlight Stats for the final game played that SMU won 103-58 were:
987 yards of total offense from 120 total plays.
155 Rushing yards
832 passing yards
Both Teams had 4 turnovers
Baylor had the ball for 30:42 and 29:18 for SMU.

SMU v Baylor Points by Qtr.
1st-35 to 6
2nd-28 to 7
3rd-24 to 31
4th-16 to 14

SMU Top Performers
Passing
Eckert - 33 of 47 for 539 yards and 6 TD's and 1 rushing TD
Romo - 20 of 41 for 239 yards and 2 TD's

Rushing
Dorsey - 9 carries for 72 yards and 1 TD
Massey - 12 carries for 63 yards

Receiving
Pellerin - 16 catches for 282 yards
Foster - 4 catches for 147 yards and 1 TD
Bobby Chase - 9 catches for 91 yards and 4 TD's
Kennedy - 6 catches for 79 yards
Vincent Chase - 6 catches for 43 yards and 1 TD
Dorsey - 2 catches for 39 yards

Defensive
Sturdevant - 8 tackles
Carrington - 8 tackles
Ieremia-Stansbury - 2 sacks and 2 tackles for a loss

Kicking
McMurtray - 4 of 4 on field goals with a long of 50. 13 of 13 on PAT's.

The game was rather interesting for Baylor as well.

#17 had 31 carries for 84 yards and 10 receptions for 108 yards.
#7 - 11 receptions for 190 yards and 3 TD's
#4 - 10 receptions for 160yards and 1 TD

Baylor's problem was not being able to run the ball effectively. Is this scientific? Heck no. Is it an interesting way to evaluate 2 teams before the game is played? Yes. Am I betting on the game because of this? Nope. Will I get heckled by our Baylor friends? You bet! Will Dooby change his avatar because of the info I am presenting? We can only hope!

[robo98564BU]

A Mustang victory over Baylor!

I ran several different scenarios on the game. I used 5,7, and 15 minute quarters on the system. 5 minute quarters are the closest to real games based on the number of plays that occur in that time frame.

Only the Xbox played both sides. There was no cheating by using special players. It was strictly this years roster for both teams. No injuries were involved before the game started. I ran 3 5minute quarter games. SMU won all 3. 28-17, 28-10, 31-13.

I ran one 7 minute quarter game and SMU won 52-34.

Finally I ran 2 15minute quarter games. These games are rather interesting in that they really are like playing 3 games to one 1 real game. SMU won the first game 93-45 and the second game was SMU 103-58. So it appears that the longer the teams play the better SMU does.

SMU Highlight Stats for the final game played that SMU won 103-58 were:
987 yards of total offense from 120 total plays.
155 Rushing yards
832 passing yards
Both Teams had 4 turnovers
Baylor had the ball for 30:42 and 29:18 for SMU.

SMU v Baylor Points by Qtr.
1st-35 to 6
2nd-28 to 7
3rd-24 to 31
4th-16 to 14

SMU Top Performers
Passing
Eckert - 33 of 47 for 539 yards and 6 TD's and 1 rushing TD
Romo - 20 of 41 for 239 yards and 2 TD's

Rushing
Dorsey - 9 carries for 72 yards and 1 TD
Massey - 12 carries for 63 yards

Receiving
Pellerin - 16 catches for 282 yards
Foster - 4 catches for 147 yards and 1 TD
Bobby Chase - 9 catches for 91 yards and 4 TD's
Kennedy - 6 catches for 79 yards
Vincent Chase - 6 catches for 43 yards and 1 TD
Dorsey - 2 catches for 39 yards

Defensive
Sturdevant - 8 tackles
Carrington - 8 tackles
Ieremia-Stansbury - 2 sacks and 2 tackles for a loss

Kicking
McMurtray - 4 of 4 on field goals with a long of 50. 13 of 13 on PAT's.

The game was rather interesting for Baylor as well.

#17 had 31 carries for 84 yards and 10 receptions for 108 yards.
#7 - 11 receptions for 190 yards and 3 TD's
#4 - 10 receptions for 160yards and 1 TD

Baylor's problem was not being able to run the ball effectively. Is this scientific? Heck no. Is it an interesting way to evaluate 2 teams before the game is played? Yes. Am I betting on the game because of this? Nope. Will I get heckled by our Baylor friends? You bet! Will Dooby change his avatar because of the info I am presenting? We can only hope!

Every time Ive seen it simulated, Baylor wins... Therefore who gives a [deleted]

[BrianTinBigD]

Is every pathetic Baylor Troll reply 14 words or less? Please tell me the parameters of your simulations. Did you track scores? How many times have you played the simulation? Was it a true simulation or were you watching your buddies play? Do we have stats to back this up? Other than your glorious word that you saw the Baylor wins simulated did you actually watching the Xbox play it out for an hour or three? Reminder in that it is posted at Ponyfans.com, not Baylorbears.com or whatever your board is called. I don't troll so you will not see this on your board.

I admit that I would kick it off and then come back later on and track the stats and scores. I just could not watch it play out for hours on end with no interaction on my part. My son was getting a little annoyed with me and my wife is convinced that I play the Xbox to much. Of course I have been doing this since the days of XOR football on the IBM PC back in the 80's and I have always found it a rather good way to determine what the game will be like. NCAA 2005 accurately predicted all the SMU wins last year and picked all of our losses. I know that the Madden Game has accurately predicted the Superbowl winner for as long as it has been around. This is just a simulation. Both teams look to be pretty evenly matched statistically(they both suck). Turnovers and red zone performance were the big differences. This is no measure of what the game will really be like it is just a simulation. I would love to see what would happen if a Baylor Xbox ran the standard simulation over 15 minute quarters. All plays are called by the computer. Run it twice and post the results. Since you have seen it done before I assume you have an Xbox. We patiently wait your results.

[ThadFilms]

I agree with you Brian... EA does a very good job, and the simulations do give you an interesting insight into the game...

What the BU fan did is probably chose the zip-zap simulate game function, which I have found, in years past, to be a less acurate "predictor" than allowing the computer to fully play the game.

[tmustangp]

I like the perspective... I don't know how legit it is but I will definately do that more this season just for the hell of it..

[ThadFilms]

I like the perspective... I don't know how legit it is but I will definately do that more this season just for the hell of it..

Be very aware to actually let the system play the game. Otherwise it will just "award" the game to the higher ranked team 9 times our of 10. Or, perhaps, 99 times our of 100.

Also, the "in season" predicting is tougher on the computer.... because, say you allow the computer to play the Baylor game in season, SMU is playing in front of an empty stadium. If, however, you play the game in the "play game" mode... Ford is packed. And yes, that does make a difference.

[robo98564BU]

Is every pathetic Baylor Troll reply 14 words or less? Please tell me the parameters of your simulations. Did you track scores? How many times have you played the simulation? Was it a true simulation or were you watching your buddies play? Do we have stats to back this up? Other than your glorious word that you saw the Baylor wins simulated did you actually watching the Xbox play it out for an hour or three? Reminder in that it is posted at Ponyfans.com, not Baylorbears.com or whatever your board is called. I don't troll so you will not see this on your board.

I admit that I would kick it off and then come back later on and track the stats and scores. I just could not watch it play out for hours on end with no interaction on my part. My son was getting a little annoyed with me and my wife is convinced that I play the Xbox to much. Of course I have been doing this since the days of XOR football on the IBM PC back in the 80's and I have always found it a rather good way to determine what the game will be like. NCAA 2005 accurately predicted all the SMU wins last year and picked all of our losses. I know that the Madden Game has accurately predicted the Superbowl winner for as long as it has been around. This is just a simulation. Both teams look to be pretty evenly matched statistically(they both suck). Turnovers and red zone performance were the big differences. This is no measure of what the game will really be like it is just a simulation. I would love to see what would happen if a Baylor Xbox ran the standard simulation over 15 minute quarters. All plays are called by the computer. Run it twice and post the results. Since you have seen it done before I assume you have an Xbox. We patiently wait your results.

Im pathetic cause i dont track stats from a video game? riiiight.

[BrianTinBigD]

***Warning Baylor Fans*** The Following post contains a word with 15 Letters in it. Read at your own risk!

I admit that I have a sickness. I track stats on computer football simulations and then post them for others to see. Now that we have this out of the way let's talk about you.

Actually, I am going to first talk about me talking about you. It appears that I am incredibly accurate in my prognostication of the pathetic response you gave. I asked the question of whether every Baylor Troll reply is 15 words or less. I never called you personally pathetic. However, lets go look at the body of evidence:

robo98564BU wrote:

"Im pathetic cause i dont track stats from a video game? riiiight."

English translation is "I am pathetic because I do not track statitstics from a video game?Right!"

The translated version that uses proper punctuation and does not use contractions is actually what proves that you meet the qualifications for being classified as pathetic. 14 words is your count. I feel that I am being generous since your original statement is actually 2 words shorter.The best part is that I never actually had to call you pathetic. You managed to misunderstand the original response and then set out to prove the criteria that would then make you pathetic.

robo98564BU, I find you rather amusing. Not funny, not sad, but amusing. Please perform some more for our amusement. I am sure the rest of us would love to be amused again with another well thought out response.

[robo98564BU]

English translation is "I am pathetic because I do not track statitstics from a video game?Right!"

you have a misspelling

[robo98564BU]

And if you would like a response with more than 15 words, I will gladly talk about REAL FOOTBALL with you. I will gladly talk about FACTS instead of a VIDEO GAME. I'm sorry if I do not feel the need to spend more than 15 of my precious words analyzing the statistics from a video game and explaining why I think they mean Baylor is superior to SMU. I am also sorry that I use shorthand occasionally when I am posting on a message board.

Feel free to "Translate" my post... get back at me when you wanna talk football instead of videogames....

[abezontar]

Well, obviously you felt that it was worth enough of your time to read and reply to it the first time. Now that you have read, and replied twice more I assume that you care a great deal about it. At least that is was your continued use of this thread and board would indicate. My advice to you, would be that if you really don't care about SMU, or tracking statistics on a computer game, or what we say about you, or whether we think you are pathetic then leave. I seriously doubt a single person will mourn your departure.

[BrianTinBigD]

Actually, it was a freudian slip.
sta[deleted]tics

Okay, bring on the sound FACTS that will support a Baylor victory.

[robo98564BU]

Actually, it was a freudian slip.
sta[deleted]tics

Okay, bring on the sound FACTS that will support a Baylor victory.

I tell you what. I will tell you why I think my team will win, and you will tell me why your team will win. Don't throw insults, or I wont talk....

Quarterback
We have a proven quarterback with game experience in Shawn Bell. He started 3 games and played in 9 and had 113 attempts with 68 completions and 0 interceptions and 6 touchdowns. He is not the fastest, strongest, or most athletic quarterback, but he is smart and accurate. He is a winner.

Running backs
Our running back situation is also much better this year. Our starter is Paul Mosley (a 6'3 230 pounder) that is built like a brick house. He average 4.6 yards a carry last year and had a team high 582 yards behind a sorry O-line. We also have Whitaker, who did not play last year because of injury. However, i have watched him play in practice and he is QUICK. If used correctly, our running backs are dangerous.

Offensive Line
Our offensive line should be 1000 times better this year. We get Nick Pace back, who was arguably our best lineman his freshman year. We also have Blaylock available to us this year who is a transfer that had to sit out last year and a stud. Add these to to Lequalan McDonald and we have a pretty stout O-line.

Receivers
Dominique Zeigler, Trent Shelton, Shaun Rochon... These guys are studs, especially Ziggy. If you have not watched him play, you will not understand. I went to 4 different practices this summer and saw Ziggy drop MAYBE 2 catches. He has great hands and elusive speed. He will be a huge factor in the SMU game because he is Bell's favorite target.

D-line
Our D-line was supposed to be the dissapointment of this team. They were supposed to be out weekest link, and they were supposed to be the downfall of our defense. Instead, Morriss has named them the "Surprise" of the summer. We are still not real deep in the position, but our starters have really stepped up their game. Tackles M.T. Robinson and Gary have been very impressive plugging the middle (which was our biggest weakness last year---way too much running on us). We also have a monster of an end with Montez Murphy (6'6 263) who should have a breakout year. With this improved D-line, that leads to our improved....

Secondary
Our secondary was good last year, just young and hindered by they fact that we had no pass rush. They were hung out to dry almost every play. Our safeties are arguably the best in the Big XII with Maurice Lane and Willie Andrews. Both are arguable All-Big XII players. Our cornerbacks took a hit when they lost Braelon Davis, but should be fine with the return of Anthony Arline and C.J Wilson, as well as the addition of transfer Alton Widemon who from what I have seen is gonna be a stud.

Linebackers
Colin Allred and Jamal Harper arent your prototype linebackers, but they are both athletic and quick. I dont know a lot about them because neither one of them were huge last year. They were both in the shadow of Justin Crooks. However, I believe the linebacker position was the strength of our defense last year, and our coaching staff thinks this group is better. Thats all I need.

Special Teams
Willie Andrews- All-Big XII returner
Daniel Sepulveda- Ray Guy Award winner
'Nuff Said

the only question is how our kicker will do. Havens has looked good in practice and can make them from 50 yards. He has a great leg. The only question is accuracy and how he will perform when its a real game situation. He has the potential though.

Coach
Morriss is the man. I believe it was Sports Illustrated that said he is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. I like him, and I believe in him. He is a no nonsense, tell-it-how-it-is kinda guy and he thinks we can and will go bowling. If it was Kevin Steele, I would call BS. But I believe Mossiss when he says we have the potential to get to a bowl this year, I wont call him a liar.

SIC 'EM BEARS

[me@smu]

I love statements like "Our safeties are arguably the best in the Big XII with Maurice Lane and Willie Andrews. Both are arguable All-Big XII players."

Let me explain how it works...they either are All-Big XII or not. It is like saying a DIII undefeated team is arguably better than UT because they had a better record.

And as for the prediction of a bowl team by your coach...don't you think it might be a slight conflict of interest? Seems strange for him to suggest a bowl game when every major publication and independent "expert" has baylor either dead last in the Big 12 or second to last ahead of Kansas!

[SMU Football Blog]

What a bunch of drivel. This is the kind of stuff I abhore: "We are a better team because we are a better team. I have at least heard of the guys on my team; I haven't heard of the players on your team." It is an incredible waste of time. No doubt you posted almost the exact thing on the Baylor board and will do so on the A&M board and the Texas board and yada yada yada. The same post is posted every year by some guy that is a fan of every other college and pro team in america; only the names change. Hell, I think I posted basically the same thing after the Spring Game in 2004.

You are optimistic. You won a big game last year. You caught an A&M team at home looking ahead. Great. I fully concede it is a better win than just about any SMU win in the past few years. But other than A&M, the only I-A team you beat was North Texas. You finished last in the Big XII South last year and there is a very good chance you will do so again this year. The air of superiority is a tad ridiculous. You are a doormat. Compared to every team in the big XII, you have "some guy" at every position. I can't say anything about Baylor football without looking up the name of every player I talk about. You don't have one player that has done anything over a whole season-i.e. a QB with three starts and a RB with less than 600 yards.

I could waste time and point out that our QB has as many Div. 1-A wins as yours has starts. Or that SMU's linebackers were decimated by injuries last year on defense. Or that our stud freshmen RB's are finally coming into their own. Or the 20 returning starters. But I won't. I am not going to impress you or change your mind. And you haven't impressed me or changed my mind, either.

I am not trying to rip Baylor; I'm really not. I wish them all the best on any day but 9/3. I am not on your board posting. But when you come here, I have the right to criticize what you post. And I think what you are posting is wildly optimistic.

Look. You might win on Saturday. You suck. We suck. May the least sucky team win.

Edit: Regarding coaches, do you really think Bennett doesn't speak of this season optimistically? Do you really think any coach in America says anything differently? Here's a hint, everytime your coach says the word "if", add one to the loss column. For example, "If we get consistency out of the safety position, ..."