Football Dominos

[GoRedGoBlue]

With all of the talk of the dominos falling, I will repeat what I said on the other board 3 years ago...

The ACC will start the domino effect...however, this puts the Big11 in a precarious situation: aside from ND, most Big11's want Syracuse, while PSU wants Pitt.

If both Syracuse and Pitt join the ACC then that leaves the Big11 with only one option (save ND which isn't going to join) - to raid anther conference: Big12's Missou, ISU, or perhaps UNeb, or perhaps Cincy or Louisville (perhaps).

So the pressure is on the Big11 to figure out what they are going to do...is it going to pre-emptively invite Syracuse or Pitt? Make another run at ND (which would be finanically detrimental to ND by MILLIONS)

The major pressures are then: if Big11 doesn't take the one of the two BEast schools, then they will invade to become 12. That 12 forces the Pac10 to want 2 more.

PAC10: Likely candidates are BYU/Utah (this is a both or none deal: state wouldn't let one go and not the other), Colorado, SDSU. Fresno is a wannabe, no way they'd invite them - academically challenged. Don't forget Boise State..they are perfectly located and have been becoming a force, though they do not have the history. Hawaii wants in bad as well and probably is a great fit, other than the travel for that conference.

But, let's look at how this might affect the Big12: They may lose Colorado to the Pac10, and/or ISU/Missou to the Big11. That creates a hole in the Big12 by one or two teams...likely candidates would be to steal ARK from the SEC (not like they have been that successful in BBALL or FBALL there) and re-join rivalries with Texas ties (and Texas and Okla recruiting). Another option is to invite Colorado State, though they are a step down from Colorado.

But here's where SMU just might get into the Big12 or the SEC: if any teams leave the Big12, they need a team, and the Dallas market is SMU's trump card over other schools..the alumni from B12 schools love it here. Also, if ARK is recruited to the B12, then the SEC has a whole to fill. Now, there are bound to be some BEast or CUSA schools that are available (VaTech or perhaps W.Virgin, or even Cincy or Louisville) that would bolt, but the SEC also needs a big market and Dallas is perfect. Moreover, Vandy would love another private school to balance the league.

Likely scenario:

ACC takes Miami, VaTech and Pitt.

Big11 takes Syracuse.

Pac10 takes Utah/BYU

CUSA takes SMU and any leftover BEast teams they want.

WAC / MWest join out west to some degree.
---
Possible scenario:

ACC takes Miami, Syr, Pitt
Big11 takes Missou
Pac10 takes Byu/Utah
Big12 wants ARK, gets SMU
CUSA grabs BEast schools
WAC/MWest join in the West.

[NavyCrimson]

good points...but i think smu's chances of getting in the big12 no matter what is getting slimmer & slimmer...

already there appears a riff between the texas schools & the rest of the conference that is growing...i just think that if i was the lil-12 commissioner (& or the non-texas schools) & then thinking of what's best for the conference - i would select a 'non-texas' school before any others to create a better balance.

smu getting in the lil-12 is a far-far cry unless texas, a$m & 1-2 of the northern schools leave & new members are then needed.

[This message has been edited by Navy&Crimson (edited 05-06-2003).]

[Charleston Pony]

GoRedGoBlue: you miss the point behind all this expansion/realignment discussion. It's all about negotiating new TV contracts and positioning for a bigger slice of the BCS pie come 2006.

Yes, the Big 10 wants Notre Dame 1st, for obvious reasons, but ND isn't looking to share their TV deal if they don't have to. Syracuse is a good alternative, because the perception is they would bring the NY/jackpot! market. That's why the ACC wants them and BC rather than Va Tech (they already have Virginia)

The PAC 10 is likely to jump on board, but they have always looked to Colorado with the Denver market. They might consider BYU, who draws the Mormon faithful and the SLC market, but no way they want both BYU and Utah. Hawaii is anoher option, because with the 'Bows, you can negotiate that late night game to wrap up college football Saturday with ESPN.

And finally, you need to understand that SMU doesn't deliver, or even promise to deliver the Dallas TV market to anyone. If we can't draw more than 15k for football and 3k for bball, what makes you think anyone in Dallas cares about SMU? The Big XII owns the Dallas market with UT and A$M, who have a far greater presence in Big D than SMU has since the Doak Walker era.

If the Big XII was to lose Colorado, they may well invite rkansas, but the Hogs are happy in the SEC and the money is just as good there. Look for everything to shift eastward, with the Big XII courting Iowa or Illinois and forcing the Big 10 to look at W.Va after Pitt. In a worse case for Big XII, look for them to settle for a Colorado St before they would give SMU, or TCU for that matter, a glance. That's todays lesson in reality.

[PK]

Not only that, but the northern part of the big xii doesn't need to give Texas another patsy to beat up on and pad their win/loss record...Texas is lucky to have Baylor to kick around.

[EastStang]

TCU has as much claim on the DFW market as we do. Unfortunately, if all were equal they would pick those loathsome Frogs over us. One part of the scenario is that if the ACC did not pick VT, and if the dominoes fell the rest of the way. You might see Arkansas to the Big XII, Virginia Tech to the SEC. That way its just moving BCS schools around so that in four years, the BE falls off the BCS map.

[virginiapony]

First off, I don't think there is any way that SMU will move out of the WAC IF any of this reallignment occurs. Other conferences have no reason to accept them because SMU has not gained any recognition since they've been off the Death Penalty. Instead, I can foresee SMU moving into C-USA at a future reallignment.
Secondly, 7 of the ACCs 9 teams must ratify an expansion, and right now, both North Carolina and Duke are against expansion. At the same time, the necessary 7th team, Florida State, is also weary of adding more competitive football schools to its conference. We must remember, while teams like Wake Forest and Clemson would benefit financially from these added FOOTBALL teams, Florida State would see minimal improvement and more competition.
I, right now, can't see NC, Duke, or FSU allowing for this change. Honestly, I don't blame them either.

[Charleston Pony]

Just the talk and threat of ACC expansion has everyone considering their options. The WAC had better be ready for this:

<A HREF="http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/6356649" TARGET=_blank>http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/6356649</A>

There will be realignment before the new TV contracts and BCS arrangement for 2006 are in place. Where will SMU end up???

[EastStang]

I agree with Charleston, changes are going to occur. The WAC is a conference with tenuous ties at best. Certainly, something could be done with a strong EAST/WEST division setting, but in its current form it is a fragile alliance. TCU's departure was in my view more damaging than the MWC departure because it fractured the Rice, SMU, TCU historical ties and also puts it into a box if a more regional sensible conference/division could be accomplished. That will only occur in my view if CUSA disintegrates. The good news is that there are no teams in the WAC that the BCS conferences want. So, while other conferences will be destablized, the WAC teams can decide if they want to be eaten by other Mid-Major conferences or do the eating themselves. I understand the Presidents are having a Conference Call to discuss the what-if scenarios with Commissioner Benson. This is a good sign, and will probably dictate what direction teams take and whether the WAC will survive or be gobbled up. Its kind of like the meeting of Wizard's owner Abe Pollin and Michael Jordon yesterday. Abe told Michael, "I don't like you and you aren't a very good manager. Now, we can move on." The schools need to decide whether like each other and respect each other enough to stay together and make runs at other conference teams, or whether they are going to go every man for himself, or like in survivor some alliances are made. I'd like to be a fly on the wall for that conference call.

[OldPony]

The MWC has little to offer anyone other than maybe some of their traditional rivals like Hawaii or FSU. Hawaii is a geographical undesirable for any but the west coast schools (PAC 10). It makes little difference whther you fly from Washington to Arizona than Hawaii.
MWC didn't like splitting up their traditional rivalries ergo the split of the WAC.
SMU's problems are twofold. No attendance and no winners for a long time. SMU is not desirable to any conference right now. Even the WAC wouldn't care much if we left. We must win over the next 2 years with football and b'ball to have a chance for any good conference (and that winning must bring in more fans). Our coaches both recruit well for what they have to sell right now. Any improvement will come from the players on campus right now. That's why the pressure is heavy on Dement. Bennett has some time on his contract but he needs to turn this around quickly if he is to be able to make a difference in conference alignments. Time is our enemy. The clock is fast running out for SMU sports to be big time again in the foreseeable future.