TCU speculation

[bhop]

It's funny reading the speculation on this board regarding a conference shakeup, and then reading what is being posted on Killerfrogs. The TCU folks hardly even consider the possibility that they might end up in the WAC. Rather, they speculate that C-USA might be able to add WVA and Va Tech if the Big East explodes, or that TCU could be invited to join the MWC. SMU and TCU people are living in two completely different worlds of speculation on this subject. It will be interesting to see who, if either, is right.

[ponyte]

I don't see any major changes. Too many legal issues, contracts and set plans for major changes. Some conferences may decide to add a team or two but major change is not likely.

Now things may change in a year or two but I still don't see major changes.

If opportunities for SMU arise in the future, it will be because we win and win often and win big. Not because of a tweak in a conference.

[EastStang]

I think TCU is looking at their success over the last 5 years and hope that it counts for something. Certainly, the Ft. Worth Bowl is a commodity to dangle in front of any conference's nose. On the other hand being in a conference with SMU gives them another non-conference game (either body bag or home). I think they won't decide what to do until all BCS slots are spoken for. They really think they might get invited to the BCS. To be honest, if I was a BCS conference, I would prefer them to Cincinnati or BYU. But because of geography, they may fall out of the mix. The biggest question marks when the shuffling begins will continue to be Notre Dame/Big 10/PAC10. I think all eyes will be on Notre Dame. If they go to the Big 10, then the BE can keep Pitt, Va. Tech (or BC), and WVa. and could arguably be in a position to retain its BCS status by adding some CUSA schools. If they don't, then the Big 10 will be deciding between Pitt, Missouri, and Iowa State. This will create a different shuffling of teams. The next six months will be interesting.

[This message has been edited by EastStang (edited 05-14-2003).]

[Nacho]

ND is not going anywhere. They are in conference NBC and it has been very good to them. I would also be very surprised to see Pitt go to the BIg 10. That spot is being held in hopes that one day, maybe 20 years from now, ND will accept.

To ponyte there will be major changes. How can you possibly say there won't when 3 schools are leaving the BE. Those spots have to be filled. C-USA implosion is coming to a theater near you this summer. Should be a blockbuster!

[This message has been edited by Nacho (edited 05-14-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Nacho (edited 05-14-2003).]

[ponyte]

Why would ND join a conference and give up its TV contract with NBC? No conference is going to take ND and then allow ND to have that generous contract. ND would have to give up money to join a conference and ND gets nothing in return. ND is already a BCS team even when they don't deserve it. ND gets every home game on nation TV and a conference isn't going to improve on that.

A conference would limits the non-conference schedule and decrease ND's flexibility. I don't see ND making any move soon to join a conference.

[ponyte]

Nacho,
I think major change occurs very slowly, over years. Studies have shown that significant change in a reality small company of 200 employees takes approximately 2 years. College football is much larger and has far more stakeholders involved to allow massive chaos in a relatively short time frame. Over years I can see minor changes and in twenty years the landscape of college football may look different but I don't see anything drastic in just a few years.

Chaos provides opportunity but in general few people or organizations are willing to take the risk associated with chaos. In addition, I don't think the lawyers for conferences, bowls, and network interest are going to allow widespread conference swapping. Too many contracts and legal issues to over come. Too many profits at risk if there is major change.

In essences, I view college football and sports as a huge corporate type entity and most conglomerate organizations are very slow to change and rarely make dramatic change.

[Nacho]

What is going on now will take until about 05-56 to happen. But make no mistake major changes are happening now that will be implemented in a couple of years or so.

[JasonB]

The future affiliation of SMU's sports programs lies in the future of the Big East.

If the Big East attempts to stay together, you can see them pulling in some C-USA schools. This would obviously affect SMU, because if Cincy and Louisville leave, that conference gets torn apart.

However, if the Big East chooses to disband, or become a bball-only conference, the only affect on SMU would be that C-USA would become a much stronger conference, and make the WAC look that much weaker.

It will be interesting to see how this whole thing falls out. You kind of have to feel bad for UConn, who was making a push for Div 1A status in football and now everything is up in the air. From what I have heard, Syracuse isn't exactly thrilled about going ot the ACC.

[GrapevineMustang]

Actually, ponyte, there was a story here linked yesterday that said the Big East might do exactly that - allow ND to have its own TV contract AND collect payouts from the Big East contract. Without that arrangement, you're right that there's no chance ND would join. And without ND, Miami, Syracuse and BC, the Big East becomes an almost irrelevant conference in terms of the national football picture. Pitt is good, Virginia Tech is good, West Virginia is OK sometimes - but overall, Miami, Syracuse and BC are the marquee names, the ones that get visibility (and therefore advertising revenue) on TV.

Without allowing ND to collect double TV money, there's a chance the conference could collapse.

[Nacho]

Here's a best case scenario:

The BE expands by adding 3 more schools (you pick 'em). They then lose their BCS status after 5 years. That's when all heck will break out. When some major programs get the shaft and start suing the NCAA and anybody else they can think of then something might happen to save college football.

[Nacho]

I was just looking at the Desert News (Salt lake City) paper. Utah and BYU really want out of the MWC. Utah possibly to the Pac-10 and BYU possibly to the Big 12 if Colorado leaves. At least that's their pipe dream. Hey TCU, do you want to go to another conference that is going to implode?

[GrapevineMustang]

If Colorado leaves? Where are they considering instead of the Big 12?
Would be a shame to end their conference rivalries with Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, etc.

[Nacho]

There is always talk about Colorado going to the Pac 10 but it hasn't happened yet.

[Nacho]

TCU is in complete denial. They are trying desperately to talk their way into the big 12. Would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

[Nacho]

I'm thinking that if SMU beats Baylor in football this fall SMU should replace Baylor in the Big 12.