2 cents

[Nacho]

I'm feeling more and more that Miami ( and hence BC and Cuse) is not going to the ACC due to the incredible pressure they are getting from just about everybody on the east coast.

In a strange twist the BE then will probably go to 12 to protect themselves--something they should have done a long time ago. There are several schools to chose from, most likey Lousiville, Cincy, Marshall, EC, etc (all the usual suspects). It's ok if the BE does it but not ok if it is done to them.

My 2 cents

[EastStang]

If it doesn't happen, then would the BE try to lure FSU, Clemson and Ga. Tech away from the ACC? Or would the ACC and the BE get in a bidding war for Marshall, ECU, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Army and Navy? Or would both conferences decide to stay put. Lots of questions.

[Nacho]

I don't see the ACC going after any team they see as beneath them. If this ACC raid doesn't work out they will stand pat. BE on the other hand will likely go to 12 in the near future. IMHO.

[Hoop Fan]

Nacho, I agree the Big East has a decent chance of hanging together now that senators are jumping into the fray to pressure Shalala, former politician herself. But I disagree that it means the Big East will necessarily expand to 12. Heres why. This is a money issue for Miami. They need a guaranteed number. One way or the other, the Big East is gonna come up with the cash to keep them. How can they not when faced with no BCS? Believe me, a couple million dollars per year as a group is not gonna be hard for the BE schools to come up with to placate Miami. Uconn will probably write the check themselves if they have to after having just spent $90 million on a football stadium. Now, once Miami gets its money, why would the BE tamper with the basketball league and why would they add more mouths to feed by expanding with all sports schools like Louisville and Cincy? They won't. Folks, this might very well all be much ado about nothing if you ask me.

[Nacho]

That's a well thought out reply HF but one of the things to come out of all this is the severe criticism of the BE for not being a 12 team conference in the first place. Remember the model for a BCS conference is 12 teams with a playoff game which generates a lot of cash. For that reason I think they will go to 12.

A non-BCS conference may be better off at 9 but in the case of the WAC which is so far flung I think 12 is a good number to give a west and east division and ease expenses.

[This message has been edited by Nacho (edited 05-30-2003).]

[Hoop Fan]

I would have agreed with you as recently as a few days ago, but this is crystalizing for me now. Its simple. If the Big East has Miami and a long term committment from them, they are going to be BCS whether they are 8 teams or 12 teams. If they do not have Miami, they face complete chaos and uncertainty. Once the northeast BE schools give Miami the financial guarantee it needs, they will squash any expansion because they can't lose more revenue at that point by sharing with more schools. The other BCS leagues wont like the fact that the Big East still has only 8 members, but there wont be anything they can do about it, because the ACC will still only be at 9 members themselves. Much ado about nothing. Now, I can see the Big East taking Louisville and only Louisville to get 9 members which would not dilute the pie too much or hurt Bball scheduling too much. If CUSA loses only L-ville, it will hang together and its very unlikely to me that SMU will see any opportunity out of this. Hope I'm dead wrong.

[This message has been edited by Hoop Fan (edited 05-30-2003).]

[Hoop Fan]

sorry, i havent figured out how to edit on this board. Above post should have said adding only L-ville would NOT dilute the BE too much.

[PK]

Hoop Fan...FYI. See the three little icons above the text of your post above? One of them is a pencil and piece of paper. That is the icon for editing. Click on it and you can edit your post at any time.

[Hoop Fan]

Thanks PK, don't know why i never saw that.

[PK]

No problem. Glad to help.

[Nacho]

Another thing that will come of this entire fiasco is that now the whole country and especially the EAST COAST will see clearly what a sham the BCS is. It wasn't a problem for them when it was some schools out west but when it hit home it was a MAJOR PROBLEM.

[Eddie P]

I'm sorry guys...the pressure from all those senators is fairly negligible in this scenario. If anything keeps Miami in the Big East, it will be the Big East's recent offer of a minimum guarantee of 9 million a year for Miami if it stays. But of course, that's probably what Miami will make in the ACC anyhow, although not guaranteed.

As far as the senators...well, the responses from the schools have ranged from, "We hope the senators can understand our position..." to "We are doing this for many reasons, not just financial..." These are hardly the responses of people cowing to pressure, but rather the response of people already in spin mode because of their iminent departures. And I wasn't terribly impressed by the form letter that was sent by the senators.

[Hoop Fan]

Thats right, the PR pressure will only come into play when the money is equal on both sides. And all I am saying is rest assured the Big East will come up with a final offer to Miami that will be comparable to ACC money. They will do this because they have no choice. Miami might still bolt, but its not a done deal yet.