Too early for season predictions?

[Charleston Pony]

This may have been posted before, but at least one writer thinks SMU has a chance of being a .500 team this year. Bottom line is that we MUST win a game before Oct to have any chance, and realistically will need to start 2-2 to have any chance at a winning season. The writer is absolutely right about Baylor and Nevada being the keys to the season. A good start and a competitive record as the season wears on could ake that TCU game more interesting than anyone thinks it will be. The Frogs didn't exactly blow us out last year at their place!

<A HREF="http://foxsports.lycos.com/content/view?contentId=1287270" TARGET=_blank>http://foxsports.lycos.com/content/view?contentId=1287270</A>

[GrapevineMustang]

OK, I'll take a swing at this (and yes, I've done a little research):

Aug. 30: at Texas Tech
Ponies come out firing. Tech hasn't seen Richard Bartel (another Grapevine Mustang, I might point out) and because of him and the return of Chris Cunningham, the SMU offense promises to have a completely different look this season. B.J. Symons will be better than many expect as the Red Raiders begin Life After Kingsbury, and will lead a Tech offense that mirrors coach Mike Leach's creative, explosive offense that made a star out of Kliff Kingsbury and all those receivers like Carlos Francis and Nehemiah Glover - almost all of whom are back this year. Tech has played .500 ball or better for 10 straight years, and will get off on the right track this year. Tech gave up more than 31 points per game last year, and now has to replace ILB Lawrence Flugence and DE Aaron Hunt. The Raiders won't score the 38.4 points per game they put up last year, but they'll come close in the opener.
Tech 37, SMU 34

Sept. 13: at Baylor
Bouyed by a strong performance in Lubbock, and with two weeks to rest, heal and prepare, SMU will notch its first win of the year in Waco. Bartel will be completely comfortable that the offense is now his, and the SMU defense will fare better than expected against a BU line that always has enormous blockers (they averaged 335 pounds last year) But although huge, the BU line wasn't great last year, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry and surrendering 26 QB sacks during their 1-10 season of 2002 (the 26 is particularly high in BU's run-first offense) -- and they lost 4 starters from the 2002 line. QB Aaron Karas promises to be decent, if not good, but he's not there yet. RB Rashad Armstrong ran for over 100 yards in BU's last two games, so he's not bad, and must be taken seriously by the SMU defense. BU coach Guy Morriss said when he was hired that DT was one position that needed massive improvement - and he signed just one JUCO DT. Keylon Kincade and Bartel will go nuts in this one, Jonas Rutledge will return an INT for a score and Chris McMurtray will go 3-for-3 on FGs.
SMU 37, Baylor 17

Sept. 20: Oklahoma State
Uh oh. The Mustangs are in for a long day, I'm afraid. Unless the SMU secondary plays ridiculously well (and a whole lot better than last year in this game), I'm afraid Rashaun Woods and his brother D'Juan Woods will have unbelievable days. Add to that a very good RB (Tatum Bell) and it's obvious why the high-powered Cowboys are on most preseason top 25 lists. They play a kind of goofy 4-2 alignment on defense most of the time (with 5 DBs), so it will be vital for SMU to establish a running game, to force a safety up to the line and free up some room for the SMU receivers to run their routes.
OSU 38, SMU 17

Sept. 27: at Nevada
3,400-yard passer Zack Threadgill is gone, as is 138-catch WR Nate Burleson. But the Wolf Pack welcomes back RB Chance Kretschmer, who as a redshirt freshman led the NCAA in rushing in 2001 with 1,732 yards before missing most of the 2002 season with a blown ACL. He might not be back to his 2001 form, but Nevada should still run the ball more this year. The team that upset BYU last year and nearly knocked off Colorado State in 2002 is a dangerous team, with 17 starters back from a year ago, plus Kretschmer. Thanks to the more balanced offense, SMU pulls this one out.
SMU 24, Nevada 20

Oct. 4: UTEP
The Miners are 5-16 over the last two years, including a 40-14 loss at SMU in 2001 and a 42-35 home loss to the Ponies last year. The team lost its games last year by an average of more than 24 points per game, thanks in large part to lopsided back-to-back games last year to Kentucky (77-17) and Oklahoma (68-0). Only six seniors are penciled in as starters this year, so it should be another long year in El Paso. The passing game could improve ifredshirt freshman Jordan Palmer - Carson's brother - wins the QB job. The rest of the offense is rather pedestrian, and the defense is rather thin, especially on a defensive line whose starters average just 262 pounds per man.
SMU 27, UTEP 10

Oct. 11: at San Jose St
The Spartans aren't most disciplined team in the world, but they are very athletic, which always can be dangerous. QB Scott Rislov threw for 3,251 yards last year and completed 61 percent of his passes, thanks to a receiving crew led by Jamall Broussard (62 catches as a junior last year) and Kendrick Starling, a sprinter who caught 49 passes in his junior year despite missing 6 games with an injured neck. In the three games between SMU and San Jose State, the visiting team has won all three, and the Ponies have outrushed SJSU by 115 yards per game. San Jose State also doesn't have Charles Pauley anymore, and all he did last year was lead the nation in KO returns (31.5 yards per, including 2 touchdowns.)
SMU 41, San Jose State 24

Oct. 18: Boise State
RB Brock Forsey is gone, but it won't matter much - Boise State will challenge Oklahoma State as the toughest team on SMU's schedule. They're loaded. QB Ryan Dinwiddie threw for 3,000-plus yards last year, and threw 20 TDs against just 3 INTs. And Forsey's "replacement" - RB David Mickell - ran for 1,526 yards and had another 1,769 yards returning kickoffs and punts. Boise State will score a lot. BSU won its last 11 games last year, and finished the year ranked in the top 15 on each poll. The Broncos didn't lose a WAC game last year, outgaining WAC opponents by more than 200 yards per game and killing them on the scoreboard, 51.1-13.9. Only 3 starters on offense return, and they do have new receivers, but their defense is strong again. The first meeting between the schools shouldn't be fun.
Boise State 39, SMU 10

Oct. 25: at Tulsa
The Ponies will lick their wounds and get back on the winning track at Tulsa. New TU head coach Steve Kragthorpe is pretty highly regarded, but he has a ton of work in front of him. SMU is 7-1 against Tulsa, and visits the school on its Homecoming day this year. Tulsa is 2-21 in its last two years. TU was outgained by 135 yards per game by WAC opponents, and outscored by more than 15 points per. The enthusiasm of a new coach and 17 returning starters should help the team improve, but they're also learning new schemes on offense and defense. Ponies will ruin Homecoming.
SMU 41, Tulsa 16

Nov. 1 Fresno State
The Bulldogs are strong on both sides of the ball. QB Paul Pinegar and RB Rodney Davis are very good, and WRs Bernard Berrian and Marque Davis are even better. And the offensive line is big and strong, although relatively young (with 3 juniors and 2 sophomores projected to start). SMU might be better off if the teams med in late September, when FSU will be recovering from a brutal early schedule that includes Tennessee, Oregon State and Oklahoma. ’Dawgs are 3-1 alltime against SMU.
Fresno State 27, SMU 17

Nov. 8: at LaTech
Think the Bulldogs - particularly QB Luke McCown - don't have this one circled on their calendars? Last year, as defending WAC champs, they walked out of Ford Stadium with a 37-34 loss, with McCown having arguably his worst game of the year and being shown up by Richard Bartel. McCown is one of the best QBs in the nation (he has more passing yards in his career than any other returning QB in the country), and we can only assume he'd like nothing better than to light up his brother's former team. The defense, led by senior DE Booker T. Washington and mammoth (6-7, 214) senior DT Lacorey Street, should be improved over the group that gave up nearly 34 points per game last year.
LaTech 37, SMU 24

Oct. 15: Rice
The Owls have lost their last 3 games in Dallas against SMU. Senior QB ran and threw for over 1,000 last year, but he's not exceptional at either. RB Robbie Beck led the option offense with 601 yards last year. Rice returns only 10 starters - the lowest total in the WAC. Home team dominance will continue.
SMU 23, Rice 13

Nov. 29: TCU
The Frogs took significant st

[Dubbya]

Texas Tech - win (in OT)
Baylor - win
OK State - loss
Nevada - win
UTEP - win
San Jose - win
Boise State - loss
Tulsa - win
Fresno - loss
LaTech - loss
Rice - win
TCU - win

OK, I'm biased, but that would make us 8-4!!!!!!!!

[Lotus]

Optimism is great, but I don't see us beating Tech or TCU, and maybe not even Baylor. I'll say 5-7 or maybe 6-6.

[Greenwich Pony]

I had us at 4-8 last year (almost right); I think with a few breaks 5-7 seems about right. We only go 6-6 if the breaks really start to fall our way- the Defense really needs to recover, and I'm not quite sure they have yet.

[giacfsp]

I don't know - Jonas has to play better than last year, doesn't he? And Jamey Harper and Ro Humphrey are a year older, and now Nnabuife is back at full strength. I think the defense could surprise a little this year.

[DiamondM]

Hey Charleston, your scores indicate that you predict 7-5 not 6-6. Didn't know which you meant.

I myself don't play the prediction game. I like to read everyone else's though. I just keep hoping for a season that shocks everyone (in a good way).

[Greenwich Pony]

Yeah, we all want to be wrong (in the right direction)...

It would be great to see the Ponies get a few breaks for a change. But you make your own luck and Bennett seems to be improving things down in Big D. There seems to be more reason for optimism than in the past two or three years.

[EastStang]

Obviously, I think TCU and Baylor will be uphill climbs for us. I think La. Tech is still beatable. Was McCown that bad, or did our defense actually step up and force errors? By then our secondary will be shaken down and could be able to handle McCown. I think we could be between 5-7 and 7-5 this year. If we are 7-5, Bennett ought to be coach of the year.

[Hoofprint]

If we go 7-5, it doesn't matter what anyone else does. Coach Bennett will have a lock on that award.

McCown wasn't a shadow of the player who lit us up the year before (what a painful drive home that was). I read someplace that the SMU game was his worst of 2002.

[Charleston Pony]

Hey, Diamond: that wasn't me who predicted that 7-5. In fact, I avoided makin any prediction...just commented that we had to win one of the 1st 4 games to have any chance of improving on last year, and have to win 2 of the 1st 4 to have any hopes of going .500

We still have 5 teams on our schedule that should handle us pretty easily. I think there are 7 we can compete with. Whether we will compete or not, who knows. I know I expected to BEAT Navy last year, so what do I know?

[Greenwich Pony]

Navy was the one the burned me last year too. I also figured we'd get Navada, but got LA Tech instead.

[Mustangs35SMU]

Im going to agree with everything GrapevineMustang on the 6-6 Season cause everything in my mind should happen that way

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