UM-VT & C-USA / WAC / MWC

[SMUstang]

Now that ACC has made their decision, I see the BE inviting UL, UC, and UCF. Then C-USA will add Rice, SMU and Tulsa to go to 12 fb members. MWC will add 4 WAC teams to go to 12. The WAC will be no more.

Who knows what TCU will do. They won't have a lot of options it doesn't look like.

[Sam I Am]

You are right about the dominoes beginning to fall. All the moves will be made in time for the new TV contracts in 2005. But just as the ACC fooled us with their last minute decisions aobut new members, we are sure to be surprised by some of the other moves too. I am pessimistic about SMU getting into
C-USA.

[Charleston Pony]

The ACC's decision sends a message that when all is said and done, regional considerations remain important. So, let's watch ECU and S.Fla as they compete for that 12th spot in the ACC. Of course, this is "assuming" Miami & Va Tech accept the invites. Might not happen.

I agree that the Big East would then likely counter immediately with Louisville and either invite Temple to stay (for all sports) or invite Cincy. It will be interesting to see whether they go after S.Fla & UCF and expand themselves to keep the Fla TV & recruiting pipeline alive. There really are a lot of transplanted northeasterners in Fla, so it's hard for them to ignore that market, despite what it does to travel costs and time out of the classroom.

If the BE takes only 2 from CUSA, I'm not sure we see much change. However, if the BE decides to expand and takes Louisville, Cincy, S.Fla & Marquette...there is clearly potential for major fallout with CUSA, the WAC & MWC.

[EastStang]

There is another consideration. As long as VTech and Pitt both stayed in the Big East, I thought that the BE would remain BCS viable. But the ACC just fileted the Big East. BC is still in the conference and is being sued by its brethren. Syracuse wanted out and was just snubbed by the ACC. CUSA may try a preemptive strike by asking BC, Syracuse and Temple to join them for all sports. Army may leave CUSA. If that preemptive strike by CUSA fails, then then dominoes will fall. If it succeeds, then you have the BE looking like a gutted fish out there and what will Pitt, WVa., Rutgers and UConn do? You also have June 30 staring a bunch of schools in the face. CUSA has a similar provision as the BE doubling the exit fee after June 30. So the other conferences will have some scrambling to do. If the dominoes start falling in July, with the MWC raiding the WAC teams like SMU may get a windfall by collecting all the exit fees because they are the last to leave. This gets real interesting now.

[93Mustang]

The ACC will NEVER add South Florida or ECU. In fact, they will never even consider such a move. To legitimize ECU would be a disaster for the NC schools (NC State, UNC, Wake, and Duke). With respect to South Florida, the same block of Carolina schools would never allow another Florida school to "dilute" their precious Greensboto based league - not saying it's right, just stating the NC perception of Florida state schools. The only schools I can imagine them pursuing and/or accepting for a 12th spot would be Penn St. or ND, and I find it very unlikely that either would go to the ACC at this time.

[Nacho]

After what the ACC has just done I don't see how anyone can be so certain of their next move.

[93Mustang]

Moreover, Syracuse will NEVER leave the Big East. Syracuse was not that aggressive in its pursuit of the ACC. The hoops team just won a national title in the Big East and the money generated for hoops in that conference must be huge. Even without Miami and Va. Tech., the Big East's football is better than C-USA and Syracuse will now return to being one of the big dogs in the conference like it was pre-Miami and pre-resurgence of Va. Tech. If this plays out, I see the BE adding a few schools and who knows if SMU will get a shot at CUSA and/or a stronger two divison WAC. Let's pray for either and hope we're not in the Sun Belt in 2005.

[Water Pony]

Here are a few points in filtering the alternatives:

1. Geography assumes a bigger role in Conference Alignments. Whether Va Tech goes or not (hypocrites if they do), VT is physically a ACC school.
2. BE expands west to Ohio Valley (Louisville and Cincinnati for FB and maybe more BB schools like Xaiver, Marquette, etc.) but not south to Florida. Access to this market with S and C Fla is over-stated with schools weak in all other areas. Probably keep Temple in fold. ND may get a hall pass by having to only play four FB conference games a year
3. Conference USA moves more westerly by picking up SMU, Rice, Tulsa. Navy could join this for FB only, like Army. Note, NAVY AD came from U. of Houston
4. E Carolina, S. Florida, etc. will never be asked to join ACC. Current ACC members think of themselves as better than them.
5. WAC must either rapidly build a solid East division by raiding Conf. USA or face merger with Sunbelt when MWC grabs two to four WAC West members along geograhically lines.
6. Getting to 12 members in a conference may not be as critical as assumed. First, the Big Ten does it and the NCAA will lower membership requirement to ten for Championship games.
7. Winners look like Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple. and on optimistic note SMU, Rice and Tulsa
8. Survivors include BE but BCS status is at major risk, a weakened Conf. USA and an expanded MWC
9. Losers could be WAC, East Carolina (weakened Conf. USA), and survivors in weakened BE: Pitt, WVA, Rutgers, Conn., BC and Syracuse
10. Questions: How does the BE raid Conf. USA with a straight face? Is BC now a plaintiff vs a defendant? White out VT and write in BC.

Sounds like the this may continue on for some time.


[This message has been edited by Water Pony (edited 06-25-2003).]

[Water Pony]

This is a very entertaining article from Charleston, WVA. The writer has a good pulse on the politics now and, more importantly, into the future of the BE and ACC. How does BE pull in new members with the lawsuit their members are pursuing?

<A HREF="http://dailymail.com/news/Jack+Bogaczyk-20030625/" TARGET=_blank>http://dailymail.com/news/Jack+Bogaczyk-20030625/</A>

[NavyCrimson]

"10. Questions: How does the BE raid Conf. USA with a straight face? Is BC now a plaintiff vs a defendant? White out VT and write in BC"

good point...

from an article i read earlier this wk the c-usa commish was saying how he talks to tranghese (the hypocrite) almost everyday...

all the more reason we must act first before c-usa does & take no prisoners...

& from what jim copeland was talking about last wk on the radio talk show i have a feeling that will happen - hopefully.