Official: SMU vs. TAMU (-32) Game Thread

[sbsmith]

Why does anybody even think we are going to score?

I had the same thought. It'll be a damn miracle if we even make it to the red zone.

[mrydel]

A&M is going to pile on the points. I am surprised the line was below 40.

They have arguably the best O-line in the nation and will score at will.

Nothing thus far this year indicates to me that we can move the ball at all.

As a betting man, I am taking whatever Vegas favors TAMU in the 1st half before the dogs are called off.

I see this as a 52-7 game.

I think the score may even be worse but you will see a better OL against A&M on the 27th.

[Johnny Utah]

Can someone even explain to be the logic behind this messed up point spread in favor of SMU? I mean the Aggies will have basically home field advantage, our best QB (which is debatable) is out for the year with a freshmen starting, we got blown out my more than 33 by North Texas, Big 12 Officiating Crew, Baylor's backup QB had his way with us, our coach quit, A&M beat South Carolina by 24 points, Rice by 28 (in reality was 35 if not for excessive sideline celebration) .....This is crazy......

[smusic 00]

The line isn't necessarily a prediction. It's a tactic to draw in bettors from both sides. And it's usually eerily close.

[Johnny Utah]

I understand that a line moves based on bets. So who are the nut jobs taking SMU at +32 and what are they basing it on?

[smusic 00]

Ok, right. Good question. My prediction was that it would open around 42.

[Johnny Utah]

Forget SMU, A&M is currently ranked #6 in the country and we were bottom 10 before we lost our QB and head coach and SMU only gets +32 !!

[ojaipony]

66-0. aTm.

[Harry0569]

Forget SMU, A&M is currently ranked #6 in the country and we were bottom 10 before we lost our QB and head coach and SMU only gets +32 !!

Which is why I've bet the most money I've ever bet on TAMU -32.5 & -33

[Treadway21]

Forget SMU, A&M is currently ranked #6 in the country and we were bottom 10 before we lost our QB and head coach and SMU only gets +32 !!

Which is why I've bet the most money I've ever bet on TAMU -32.5 & -33

Your history with betting is questionable.

I like our chances now - to beat the spread that is.

[Harry0569]

Forget SMU, A&M is currently ranked #6 in the country and we were bottom 10 before we lost our QB and head coach and SMU only gets +32 !!

Which is why I've bet the most money I've ever bet on TAMU -32.5 & -33

Your history with betting is questionable.

I like our chances now - to beat the spread that is.

I'm up 200%+ over the past two years.

I look at this objectively. There has been no evidence of us scoring and no evidence of us stopping anyone. TAMU's offensive line is the best in the nation. Kenny Hill will have all day to picks us apart. I have faith in the fact tamu will put up at least 40 pts.

line has moved to 33.5

[Johnny Utah]

Can someone please explain to me the argument for taking SMU +33.5? Is it, something like this: the players will play for Mason where they despised Jones? SMU fans are legion of boom style going to come out and support the team and cheer the team to victory? Sumlin is Mason's former roommate and is going to call off the dogs or at a minimum has a soft place in his hart for CUSA/AAC teams? Or is it SMU was holding back the first two games as part of some grand strategic ruse to take A&M by storm? The KGB has intervened?

What I suspect is the casual betters in Vegas still view SMU as competitively ahead of Rice and mistakenly coupled that with the A&M Rice score and the belief that home field advantage works in SMU's favor here...??

I'm pretty much betting my kidney on A&M but will be pissed if in reality if it turns out that I read the schedule wrong and SMU is actually playing Florida A&M.... In which case I would be upset but still confident in my bet.

Again, someone make the argument!!

[mrydel]

A&M has Arkansas in Dallas next week. They may be more willing to rest the regulars than normal. That is the best I can come up with.

[stc9]

Can someone please explain to me the argument for taking SMU +33.5?

Goimg back to H.S. Geometry our givens are:

1) Vegas is not in the business of losing money.
2) Vegas only makes money when money gets put down on the table.

In a game like this, an expected blowout, betters tend to shy away from these games for a couple of reasons. The first is that most A&M backers expect garbage time to start early. Points are generally given up during garbage time. Professional gamblers, who are also in the business of making money, don't like SMU because they don't know enough about them. This means that Vegas needs to drive action towards the game. They do this by having a low point spread to attract the A&M backers. Once this money starts rolling in they will raise the point spread to offset the risk and get SMU money on the table. The 1 point rise in the spread tells us one of two things. Some A&M action has started to roll in, but not enough to drive the spread up or people are taking SMU to cover. I am guessing that money is not coming in.

[GiddyUp]

It's pretty crazy...line should be 45+

59-2 is my prediction. Mason's defense gets a safety!