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Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:22 pm
by RednBlue11
yes...yes, we do actually....as hard as that is to believe.

http://regressing.deadspin.com/chart-wh ... 1640831522

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Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:23 pm
by RednBlue11
Where we need to go ASAP.

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Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:31 pm
by Stallion
yes but we moved substantially south and back to the norm this year-plus what bothers me about this type of graph is that you got to understand there is about a 3-4 year lag between recruiting and on field performance. Its interesting though with that caveat

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:36 pm
by RednBlue11
if Chad is worth a dam you'll see the results improve dramatically halfway through year 2...above w/e you see him bring to the table in coaching

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:38 pm
by Grant Carter
Stallion wrote:yes but we moved substantially south and back to the norm this year-plus what bothers me about this type of graph is that you got to understand there is about a 3-4 year lag between recruiting and on field performance. Its interesting though with that caveat

If I understand correctly, for each year they compared the average of the previous 5 years of recruiting with that year's on field performance so I think they addressed your issue about the lag fairly well.


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Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:43 pm
by DanFreibergerForHeisman
Certainly arbitrary to some degree, but interesting nonetheless.

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:16 pm
by Stallion
Grant Carter wrote:
Stallion wrote:yes but we moved substantially south and back to the norm this year-plus what bothers me about this type of graph is that you got to understand there is about a 3-4 year lag between recruiting and on field performance. Its interesting though with that caveat

If I understand correctly, for each year they compared the average of the previous 5 years of recruiting with that year's on field performance so I think they addressed your issue about the lag fairly well.


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No it really doesn't. You could a have a drastic infusion or exodus of players or a change in coaching staff that would really throw that off. Plus 5 years indicates a redshirt and remaining on campus. Consider the SEC where each year the First Team All Conference on Offense and Defense enters NFL Undergraduate Draft. Does Alabama even bother playing Seniors-just kidding but its has its imperfections.

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:12 pm
by couch 'em
Still shows that the line of best aligns closely to the talent/performance line. Once again this shows that recruiting matters and June diamond in rough recruiting is garbage. PONYBOY.

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:33 pm
by Stallion
Right there are no recruiting powerhouses at the bottom of the graph and almost all schools at top of the graph are perennial recruiting powerhouse. Another problem with this graph is the competition in the SEC West is not comparable to the Sun Belt. Recruiting is comparable to your competition. See Arkansas this year. Double digit SEC West losing streak against team that mostly have wiped the floor with Arkansas in recruiting despite the fact that they would wipe the floor with the champions of just about all G5 conferences

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:17 pm
by Digetydog
RednBlue11 wrote:Where we need to go ASAP.

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Great Find.

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:00 am
by CalallenStang
Stallion wrote:Right there are no recruiting powerhouses at the bottom of the graph and almost all schools at top of the graph are perennial recruiting powerhouse. Another problem with this graph is the competition in the SEC West is not comparable to the Sun Belt. Recruiting is comparable to your competition. See Arkansas this year. Double digit SEC West losing streak against team that mostly have wiped the floor with Arkansas in recruiting despite the fact that they would wipe the floor with the champions of just about all G5 conferences


Hence why recruiting rank is on one axis and team rank is on the other axis

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:07 am
by ponyboy
couch 'em wrote:Still shows that the line of best aligns closely to the talent/performance line. Once again this shows that recruiting matters and June diamond in rough recruiting is garbage. PONYBOY.


You apparently desperately need a straw man because you've now mentioned my name a very odd number of times. I've never defended JJ's recruiting methods. I've defended his results on the field.

Having the most talented players is important. There ARE legitimate arguments out there as to just HOW important this one side of the coin is, though. The other side of the coin is coaching, scheme, culture. Some guys can just do more with less, or in JJ's case with weird. TCU's been the perfect example of this. They're not recruiting anywhere near the level they play.

Anyway, if hate makes you feel better, then hate. But let me know when you want an actual conversation.

Oh, and for the record, I think Chad Morris is absolutely going to kill it at SMU. Couldn't be more happy that he his here.

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:38 am
by Rebel10
DanFreibergerForHeisman wrote:Certainly arbitrary to some degree, but interesting nonetheless.


Very arbitrary.

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:40 am
by Rebel10
RednBlue11 wrote:if Chad is worth a dam you'll see the results improve dramatically halfway through year 2...above w/e you see him bring to the table in coaching

Wrong, it will tale 3 recruiting classes to get on track Corso.

Re: Does SMU Outplay it's Recruiting?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:46 am
by Rebel10
RednBlue11 wrote:yes...yes, we do actually....as hard as that is to believe.

http://regressing.deadspin.com/chart-wh ... 1640831522

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No we really don't as seen by this year. That chart was looking a stars and not offers. I know you were a June supporter so I see why you would post this. If they took a look at offer it would have aligned differently. It will take Morris 3 or 4 recruiting classes. People that were not drinking the June kool-aid could see what happened this year coming a mile away.