2018 Strength of Schedule

[SMU Section F]

According to ESPN's FPI, we currently have the second highest "Strength of Schedule" outside of the P5 conferences for 2018, behind only independent BYU. Kind of surprising to me.

Source: http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/sosRemainingRank/order/false

Edit: That's considering independent Notre Dame as P5 and independent BYU as G5, but that seems to be the general consensus.

[AusTxPony]

Appears to me that it has all to do with how ESPN rates the Conferences in the G5. American, MWC, etc. for their intra-conference games. So they project 5-7, hope we can improve on that.

[BUS]

Like

[mtrout]

Interesting

FPI (RK) -6.6 (90)
Projected W-L 5.0 - 7.0 (96)
Chance of winning out 0.0%
Chance of winning conference 0.7%
SOS Remaining RK 67

Sat, Sept 1
@ North Texas
41.0% -6.1 (88) --
Fri, Sept 7
vs TCU
18.0% 8.4 (33) --
Sat, Sept 15
@ Michigan
3.0% 18.8 (11) --
Sat, Sept 22
vs Navy
54.7% -4.4 (78) --
Sat, Sept 29
vs Houston Baptist
99.0% -- --
Sat, Oct 6
@ UCF
16.4% 3.3 (55) --
Sat, Oct 20
@ Tulane
34.8% -4.4 (77) --
Sat, Oct 27
vs Cincinnati
61.8% -7.2 (94) --
Sat, Nov 3
vs Houston
36.7% 0.6 (62) --
Sat, Nov 10
@ UConn
70.6% -17.8 (120) --
Fri, Nov 16
vs Memphis
26.2% 4.8 (49) --
Sat, Nov 24
@ Tulsa
40.1% -5.9 (86)

[Charleston Pony]

UNT, Tulane and Tulsa ALL projected as road losses; that's my fear

[ojaipony]

If we lose AT UNT, it will be a long season. That needs to be a pretty sure win. So does Tulsa and Tulane although I know Tulane is getting better and we got REAL lucky beating them at our place last year. To get to a bowl, we have to get all 3 IMHO.

[footballdad]

A loss to UNT = Morris 'rebuild' failure, plain and simple.

[dr rc]

A loss to UNT = Morris 'rebuild' failure, plain and simple.

No, it just means Donny got his [deleted] kicked by Seth Littrell.

It's silly to pin a loss on a coach that isn't even around anymore.

Texas A&M didn't lose to Arkansas State in Mike Sherman's first game as HC b/c of Dennis Franchione. They lost b/c Sherman did a god awful job calling the plays.

[mtrout]

Morris filled our roster with a lot of fluff. Looked cool on twitter for a bit but we're still #100. We took the Energy Bus to Frisco and it didn't work out too well, did it sugar?

Sonny's got his work cut out for him.

[footballdad]

A loss to UNT = Morris 'rebuild' failure, plain and simple.

No, it just means Donny got his [deleted] kicked by Seth Littrell.

It's silly to pin a loss on a coach that isn't even around anymore.

Texas A&M didn't lose to Arkansas State in Mike Sherman's first game as HC b/c of Dennis Franchione. They lost b/c Sherman did a god awful job calling the plays.

Isn't SMU now in the 4th year of the Morris rebuild, with a large % of his great recruits now on the field? Sonny has a pretty long track record as a good coach, no? My guess, if the season is .500 or below, it'll be because the talent is still lacking, not because Sonny can't coach.

Is it the X's and O's, or the Jimmie's and Joe's? With all the talent Morris added, you're telling me that SMU can't beat little ole' UNT? A loss is going to be on Sonny, not our 30+/- best guys vs. their 30+/- best?

[JasonB]

I would flip the percentages on UNT and Navy heading into to the season, but from an outsider perspective I think it is a reasonable expectation record-wise.

Improvements across the board at LB and improved strength program will make our front 7 better than last year, despite the graduations. More maturity, strength, and depth in the secondary will make the defense significantly better overall. Morris' DL and OL recruits coming into maturity is going to make this team the best team on the line of scrimmage for quite a while, especially when you add in the JUCOs. We could use some playmakers at WR, for sure. But I'll take improvements in the line over the WR any day for consistency.

Basically, if Morris recruited as well as we thought, and the coaching is actually better now, we should expect to split non-conference and at least be .500 in conference. UNT, HB, Cincy, UConn, Tulsa, Tulane. I would beat heavy on the over if 5 wins were the line.

On the upside, if you want to be aggressive - the conference schedule is what you want, with only UCF the difficult away game. If the team is actually good next year - coaching is better, Morris kids are ready to play, Benson, Page, TCU kid turn out decent at WR - this is the schedule that you want.

If you think the team sucks and want to squeak into a bowl, last year's schedule is better with easy home games.

[peruna81]

The key will be an improved strength of schedule AND wins...one without the other just means we lost the games that were "penciled in"

[dr rc]

A loss to UNT = Morris 'rebuild' failure, plain and simple.

No, it just means Donny got his [deleted] kicked by Seth Littrell.

It's silly to pin a loss on a coach that isn't even around anymore.

Texas A&M didn't lose to Arkansas State in Mike Sherman's first game as HC b/c of Dennis Franchione. They lost b/c Sherman did a god awful job calling the plays.

Isn't SMU now in the 4th year of the Morris rebuild, with a large % of his great recruits now on the field? Sonny has a pretty long track record as a good coach, no? My guess, if the season is .500 or below, it'll be because the talent is still lacking, not because Sonny can't coach.

Is it the X's and O's, or the Jimmie's and Joe's? With all the talent Morris added, you're telling me that SMU can't beat little ole' UNT? A loss is going to be on Sonny, not our 30+/- best guys vs. their 30+/- best?

I don't know why so many on this board have this mentality but UNT is no longer a bunch of undersized guys at a school with zero resources. They have made a lot of investments into athletics in the last several years and Seth Littrell has improved them a hell of a lot from where they were when he took over. UNT went 5-8 his first year and 9-5 last year. Hell, they beat La Tech last year in Ruston. You should not be at all surprised if the game is a shootout. They aren't some pushover auto win under him like they used to be. While I think SMU has more talent on the roster I also recognize that UNT has improved quite a bit too to the point that I thought Littrell should have been looked at as a possible replacement for Morris. He's done an excellent job up in Denton IMO.

Again just b/c you have more talent doesn't mean you should dominate. Nick Saban lost to ULM in Tuscaloosa his first year at Alabama. Nobody in their right mind would blame that loss on Mike Shula who was HC the year before or say that ULM had more talent. Saban himself will say that loss is on him.

It often takes time for a new HC to fully implement his system, figure out how best to use his players, and for the players to understand what all they are supposed to do. Terminology changes, position changes, different approaches to game management, and a new staff that didn't recruit the bulk of the players on the team are all things that can be very difficult to adjust to.

I am not saying that UNT will win the game next year. However, to blame the coaching staff that isn't around anymore when it's blatantly obvious the talent level is in a far better place than it was before they got there is completely foolish. This isn't a situation like at Kansas where Charlie Weis decimated the roster w/horrible recruiting pitches like "Hey, look at the crap we have out there. If you can't start for us you're no good" (yes that really was what he told recruits and he for some reason seemed proud of it at Big 12 media days when he admitted it) or like here when June Jones wouldn't get off his fat lazy [deleted] to go meet kids from area schools b/c he thought they should come to him to prove they wanted to be at SMU.

Also, I am not saying if UNT wins it means Sonny can't coach. It would just mean for that particular game he got beat by a pretty good HC in his own right.

[Charleston Pony]

and you should never underestimate the importance of "home field advantage" in college football...especially in a game with two teams that are pretty evenly matched, which will be the case in Denton, whether some want to admit it or not.

[footballdad]

I agree with you 1,000% dr rc. My real points.........most on this board do arrogantly look down their noses at UNT for some reason, and Littrell has actually done a better rebuild/coaching job than Morris.

Good luck to Sonny. UNT should enjoy Littrell's last year in Denton.