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Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Plan

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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby JasonB » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:52 am

Ponyexpress70 wrote:JasonB

Can you please tell us what data in the links below justifies you reinforcing the baseless fears of these football players?

0 confirmed deaths under the age of 20 In the entire state (11 confirmed deaths under the age of 30 in the entire state).

~45% of reported deaths in the state are in nursing homes and assisted living facilities (976/2,165)

72% of confirmed deaths are over the age of 65 (only 12% of cases)

Th mortality rate in NH/ALFs is 14.8% (976 deaths / 6,608 cases)

The mortality rate if you live outside a NH/ALF is 1.2% (1,189/101,127)

If you remove the disproportionate impact of NH/ALFs from the numbers, cv19 comes in tied for the 8th leading cause of death in Texas at 15.4 deaths/100,000 just in front of septicemia and the flu which come in at 12 deaths/100,000. In other words, a .015% chance of dying from cv19 outside a NH/ALF vs. a .012% chance of dying from septicemia or the flu. As a point of comparison, 100% of people who eat carrots...die (eventually).

If you live outside a NH or ALF, you’re almost as likely to die in a car accident In Texas as you are from CV19 (~10 traffic fatalities/day vs ~12 cv19 deaths/day). Maybe we should ban the wheel. I guess it’s a good thing the players live on campus and don’t have to drive to practices/games.

I realize this board is meant to be apolitical, but relevant facts are always important when it comes to protecting the sanctity of football in Texas. This board should not be used to knowingly or unknowingly pass along misinformation that reinforces baseless fears. Football and sports are meant to be an escape from the insanity of the real world. Let’s not let those outlets become infected by political agendas that seek to tear down and destroy.

As long as Sonny isn’t looking to round out his roster from the Texas Nursing Home Transfer Portal, I think the players will be fine (at least, that’s what the data tells us).

Time to put on our big boy pants, Pony Up and play some football!!!

P.S. Ponyboy - the statistic is that Medicare pays hospitals $13,000/cv patient and $39,000 for cv patients that go on ventilators. Part of the CARES act. The controversy is about whether or not hospitals are inflating their case counts to get money - no verified examples of that happening.

http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-in ... 2018/a.pdf

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/COVI ... ities.aspx

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83



Based on percentages, 1-2 players on the team would be hospitalized from the virus (around 1% of cases). Coaches would be at a 10-15% rate, so again you are looking at 1 hospitalization.

Now, take the bigger picture. We are telling some of these players the awesome opportunity they have to play at home, in Dallas. But now they are going to be in a situation where they can't go see the family that they wanted to play in front of? Because I guarantee you that several have parents with underlying health conditions, or live with grandparents. What about if they decide to go to class? Infect a professor? Is that okay?

I don't think anyone here is trying to overstate the possible impacts. Nobody is stating that kids are going to die, because the odds indicate that is most likely not going to happen. It is their overarching ecosystem that we have to be mindful of.

Again, people are going to make individual decisions. But I don't think it is right to dismiss the risks like they don't really exist.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby JasonB » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:57 am

Topper wrote:Until we know what long term damage Covid19 can cause for those infected I think it is premature to call the players' fears of the virus baseless. And it isn't just about keeping the student athletes safe. Its keeping those in their social circle safe as well. The fewer people with the virus in circulation the fewer of those with complicating conditions that will die. I am getting the feeling that this season may not happen or that it will be an abbreviated schedule as I think many programs may not participate. Just a feeling I am getting after seeing MLB shutting down their camps this week.


Especially since once you get into October and November, close quarters transmission outdoors becomes more probable. Right now we just don't know, for example, if the massive spread at the soccer game in Italy was due to people being outdoors next to each other in cold weather, or people riding mass transit and going to the same bars before and after the game. But the spread we saw in 1918 when the end of WW1 was celebrated at all of the parades doesn't provide a great track record for holding group events in colder weather.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby One Trick Pony » Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:45 am

JasonB wrote:
ponyboy wrote:Balanced with all that, you do have to factor in the fact that doctors are strongly incentivized to diagnose COVID-19. I think they get an extra $1,300 per patient, $3,900 if ventilation is required.


That is complete BS. People need to just look at the scientific data and not these urban myths that are spread by organizations with a political agenda.

FYI, I have it on direct knowledge that at least initially the cost of a Covid test was higher than the reimbursement amount. I doubt that is still the case, but nobody is being compensated to try and drive numbers up artificially. And there are zero doctors in America who are going to put a patient on a ventilator for the hell of it. It is a very intense experience. The individual doctors and nurses at a hospital don't see a dime for any sort of reimbursement and are making medical-based decisions. Please don't disrespect the medical community just because someone is trying to push an extremist agenda.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby ponyboy » Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:49 pm

Jason, let's break down my statement:

1. "Doctors are strongly incentivized to diagnose COVID-19."

It is a fact that the CARES Act provides a 20% bump in Medicare payments to the hospital if the patient has COVID as compared to a standard respiratory infection. It is my opinion that given simple economics (which is nothing more than the science of human behavior), this is a strong incentive to tick the COVID-19 box. It's not about disrespecting individual doctors -- it's simple human behavior.

2. "I think they get an extra $1,300 per patient, $3,900 if ventilation is required."

Per PolitiFact, "Using payment rates for similar respiratory conditions... the average Medicare payment [is estimated] at $13,297 for a less severe hospitalization and $40,218 for hospitalization in which a patient is treated with a ventilator for at least 96 hours." As someone else pointed out above, I misquoted the numbers by a factor of 10.

Forgive me, but I'm not sure where b.s. comes into this.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby EastStang » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:37 pm

Young people have an almost 100% chance of surviving the disease. In Virginia no one under the age of 20 has died. 3 under the age of 30 out of 58,000 cases (9800 in that age group). Over 50% of deaths over the age of 80. Over 50% of deaths in senior living facilities. In other words if you're in good health and under the age of 30, you have a 99.9% chance of recovering. You are more likely to get shot in Dallas than die of COVID-19. You're more likely to die in a car crash, than die of COVID-19 at that age. So, let's ban students from driving. Add in that you have almost and identical risk as a 21 or younger person of dying from alcohol poisoning.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby Nacho » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:37 am

ponyboy wrote:Jason, let's break down my statement:

1. "Doctors are strongly incentivized to diagnose COVID-19."

It is a fact that the CARES Act provides a 20% bump in Medicare payments to the hospital if the patient has COVID as compared to a standard respiratory infection. It is my opinion that given simple economics (which is nothing more than the science of human behavior), this is a strong incentive to tick the COVID-19 box. It's not about disrespecting individual doctors -- it's simple human behavior.

2. "I think they get an extra $1,300 per patient, $3,900 if ventilation is required."

Per PolitiFact, "Using payment rates for similar respiratory conditions... the average Medicare payment [is estimated] at $13,297 for a less severe hospitalization and $40,218 for hospitalization in which a patient is treated with a ventilator for at least 96 hours." As someone else pointed out above, I misquoted the numbers by a factor of 10.

Forgive me, but I'm not sure where b.s. comes into this.


another in a long line of idiotic posts.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby JasonB » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:10 am

ponyboy wrote:Jason, let's break down my statement:

1. "Doctors are strongly incentivized to diagnose COVID-19."

It is a fact that the CARES Act provides a 20% bump in Medicare payments to the hospital if the patient has COVID as compared to a standard respiratory infection. It is my opinion that given simple economics (which is nothing more than the science of human behavior), this is a strong incentive to tick the COVID-19 box. It's not about disrespecting individual doctors -- it's simple human behavior.

2. "I think they get an extra $1,300 per patient, $3,900 if ventilation is required."

Per PolitiFact, "Using payment rates for similar respiratory conditions... the average Medicare payment [is estimated] at $13,297 for a less severe hospitalization and $40,218 for hospitalization in which a patient is treated with a ventilator for at least 96 hours." As someone else pointed out above, I misquoted the numbers by a factor of 10.

Forgive me, but I'm not sure where b.s. comes into this.


1) At least early in the pandemic, it cost more to process tests than they were reimbursed. All of that said, the individual doctors aren't reimbursed, the hospitals are in the above scenario. The individual doctors don't have an incentive. Secondly, the states and counties have all put restrictions that nobody can declare a case as Covid unless a test is officially passed.

2) Ventilation was used to treat Covid because that is a standard treatment for severe pneumonia. Nurses and doctors, again, are not paid extra for using a ventilator. They are medical professionals, making medical decisions.


I guess I should assume that you, personally, are willing to put lives at risk just to make the company you work for some extra money. Because you shouldn't make that assumption of other very highly educated professionals unless you would make that same decision yourself.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby JasonB » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:11 am

EastStang wrote:Young people have an almost 100% chance of surviving the disease. In Virginia no one under the age of 20 has died. 3 under the age of 30 out of 58,000 cases (9800 in that age group). Over 50% of deaths over the age of 80. Over 50% of deaths in senior living facilities. In other words if you're in good health and under the age of 30, you have a 99.9% chance of recovering. You are more likely to get shot in Dallas than die of COVID-19. You're more likely to die in a car crash, than die of COVID-19 at that age. So, let's ban students from driving. Add in that you have almost and identical risk as a 21 or younger person of dying from alcohol poisoning.


Okay. And a low percentage of people die from drinking and driving. So, let's make that legal as well.
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Re: Daily Campus: SMU Players Voice Concerns Over Return Pla

Postby geezerdonk » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:10 pm

Sophistry at its finest.
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