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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby JasonB » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:26 pm

ponyboy wrote:Only 353 of whom were aged 15-24 years old.


But that is the point. If you had a way to restrict a disease to only certain ages getting it, that would be awesome. But you can't.

And remember, don't focus on the vaccine. Better treatments and cheap, accurate testing are the key, and coming in shorter time periods.

Our goal is to limit spread. If R can go from 3.4 down to 1.0, that stagnates spread until the treatments are ready to go.

If you are in a position where you would normally have a 100% chance of catching the virus, then you wearing a cloth mask reduces that chance by 35%. If both people wear cloth masks, it reduces the chance by 58%. In a more realistic environment, such as a store, if you have like a 10% chance of catching the virus but everyone is wearing cloth masks, now you are down to only a 0.4% chance of getting sick. Masks and social distancing are what get the R level down enough that it gives us time to improve testing and treatments and reduce the number of deaths.

At the end of the day, this is all the secondhand smoke question - do you have the right to give me cancer? Should the market naturally control this problem? Or should the government step in and not allow you to give me cancer?
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby ponyboy » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:39 pm

Jason, there are so many ways to respond to this I don't know where to start. I'll just make two points.

First of all, there is a very good argument that we are all going to get COVID-19. All of us. That's what was assumed when we agreed to these restrictions in the first place. The goal was only to flatten the curve, to extend it in time so that absolute numbers of people in hospital beds didn't exceed capacity.

Second is a more practical point. Let's momentarily grant that we can in the long run prevent large numbers of people from ever getting COVID-19. You can talk about "oughts" all day long, you can apply social pressure, you can even scare them with threats of jailing. But people are only going to live under these restrictions for a limited amount of time, most especially if their personal risk is low. You're going to have to hold a gun to someone's head to prevent them. That's human nature. I'm not saying it's right, I'm saying it's how humans behave.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby ponyup123456 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:46 pm

Student perspective:

While we collectively failed to wear masks(certain groups of kids were mostly responsible) it felt like we were set up to fail. Unlike every other section of the stadium, we had no seats and were grouped together with 1,000(looked like more) students in an area where maintaining 6 feet from other students was hard/impossible. Despite what the athletic department said, we were not offered the chance to sit elsewhere in the stadium. They closed the gates to the concourse and told us (and pushed us) to leave. Students who had been wearing masks were told it was our fault for not getting other kids to wear them. Not that this matters, but other schools' students clearly did not follow COVID rules and the schools did nothing. I felt like by kicking us out they made a national story out of something not out of the ordinary for college games.
We(students) should be a lot more responsible, but was anyone actually surprised that, as a collective, drunk college kids weren't? Directing us to sit in a specific section using only every other row would at least initially put students in the position to be less dumb/irresponsible.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby JasonB » Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:33 pm

ponyboy wrote:Jason, there are so many ways to respond to this I don't know where to start. I'll just make two points.

First of all, there is a very good argument that we are all going to get COVID-19. All of us. That's what was assumed when we agreed to these restrictions in the first place. The goal was only to flatten the curve, to extend it in time so that absolute numbers of people in hospital beds didn't exceed capacity.

Second is a more practical point. Let's momentarily grant that we can in the long run prevent large numbers of people from ever getting COVID-19. You can talk about "oughts" all day long, you can apply social pressure, you can even scare them with threats of jailing. But people are only going to live under these restrictions for a limited amount of time, most especially if their personal risk is low. You're going to have to hold a gun to someone's head to prevent them. That's human nature. I'm not saying it's right, I'm saying it's how humans behave.


I thought you were saying before it was going to stop at 20% of the population :).

But, yes, we want to slow it down until we treat it better.

From a policy perspective, like I said, it is like second hand smoke. You can try and rely on people to be decent human beings and not smoke around others. But that didn't happen, so we had to pass all kinds of rules barring smoking in certain locations.

I'd love to have people use their proper judgement and wear a mask. But since that isn't happening, you unfortunately are going to have to create rules to slow the spread until we can handle the disease better and reduce mortaility.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby JasonB » Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:39 pm

ponyup123456 wrote:Student perspective:

While we collectively failed to wear masks(certain groups of kids were mostly responsible) it felt like we were set up to fail. Unlike every other section of the stadium, we had no seats and were grouped together with 1,000(looked like more) students in an area where maintaining 6 feet from other students was hard/impossible. Despite what the athletic department said, we were not offered the chance to sit elsewhere in the stadium. They closed the gates to the concourse and told us (and pushed us) to leave. Students who had been wearing masks were told it was our fault for not getting other kids to wear them. Not that this matters, but other schools' students clearly did not follow COVID rules and the schools did nothing. I felt like by kicking us out they made a national story out of something not out of the ordinary for college games.
We(students) should be a lot more responsible, but was anyone actually surprised that, as a collective, drunk college kids weren't? Directing us to sit in a specific section using only every other row would at least initially put students in the position to be less dumb/irresponsible.


IMHO, the school should have had people walking around correcting behavior from the start. If the expectations had been set in the facility from the beginning, it would never had gotten to that point. By not correcting mask behavior in the concourse or when people were in line for beer, they let an opportunity slip.

I saw event personnel several times start to walk down to the students, and then turn around and come back. Like they were scared to say anything. There were yellow jacket event staff people on the field next to the students. All of those individuals had the opportunity to tell the students to change behavior before they stopped it all. So, I definitely think it could have been handled better by the University.

That said, the students knew what the rules were.

Basically, I think I'm saying there were bad people on both sides.

:).
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby HubbaHubba » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:23 pm

No doubt they should be wearing masks and/or practicing safe social distancing. How about when they enter the stadium they hand out SMU masks to the fans. Make them match the uniforms, maybe different each week, a collectors item or have a mask contest at half time or roaming camera (like kiss camera) looking for the best masks. Let the marketing people loose on this. Let's turn it into a positive.

On the other hand, this whole situation is so much our unfortunate heritage. If this was enforced by the NCAA we would be given the death penalty again when, in every other game I saw this weekend, the fans were unmasked and clumped up much worse than our students.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby SMUer » Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:08 pm

Chicagopony wrote:
SMUer wrote:Applying current CDC general population percentages would predict between 5-10 SMU students will die from COVID. I think there a quite a few reasons to assume that university students will have higher transmission rates compared to general population, so this range might be a tad conservative. The CDC numbers have COVID death:case percentages are much lower than half of one percent. Using half of one percent (0.005) would predict 50-55 student deaths.

Low percentages obscure the fact that a >1 amount of lives are at stake when considering large populations. Maybe five students (the difference between 7 deaths and 12 deaths) might be prevented by mask and distance requirements during all SMU sporting events this year. (We joke about our grey-hair fans, and we’re not even considering their exposure and increased vulnerability.) So yes, maybe we can limit exposure and possibly reduce >1 transmissions/deaths, but that would require students to surrender minor personal and social comforts to community-protection interests. If you are not willing to do that, how is that not selfish? And what kind of “brother”, “sister” or “family” are you if you are unwilling to prevent more death of classmates? Not one I would want.

That is an interesting analysis. Per the CDC, the death rate from Covid for kids aged 0-19 is .00003 percent. Admittedly, college student ages extend to roughly 22 or 23 - but I will assume the death rate for those students is largely in line with the 0-19 age group. By my math, that means roughly .3 students would die, not the 50-55 you have suggested. You may still be of the opinion that these students are selfish, but at least put realistic numbers when making your point. Personally, I'd be be doing the same thing as these kids since I only enjoyed 2 years of football due to the death penalty.
Actually the number I suggested was somewhere between 5-10. The 50-55 comes from the percentage the poster that was calling social distance enforcement selfish. I think the numbers are much lower but still predict >1 COVID death at SMU. I used the CDC reported range of 15-24, which includes more college-years vs non-college years than 0-19 age. The transmission:death rate for 15-24 is ~0.0006. SMU student population (grad+undergrad) in 2016 was 11,000 students. The numbers I used was only current through August 31 and SMU’s population is probably larger than in 2016. Whether 1, 5 or 10 lives are at stake, I would hope even 1 death would be enough incentive to wear a mask and stand 6 ft apart. My point was that even low percentages result in >1 predictions in large populations.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby ponyte » Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:22 pm

I can't believe the most exciting topic in a SMU win over a top 25 opponent is whether students wear mask and spread out. Guess it is similar to discussing the use of legal facemask and the student spread formation. :roll: :shock: :D
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby SMUer » Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:09 pm

gostangs wrote:
SMUer wrote:Applying current CDC general population percentages would predict between 5-10 SMU students will die from COVID. I think there a quite a few reasons to assume that university students will have higher transmission rates compared to general population, so this range might be a tad conservative. The CDC numbers have COVID death:case percentages are much lower than half of one percent. Using half of one percent (0.005) would predict 50-55 student deaths.

Low percentages obscure the fact that a >1 amount of lives are at stake when considering large populations. Maybe five students (the difference between 7 deaths and 12 deaths) might be prevented by mask and distance requirements during all SMU sporting events this year. (We joke about our grey-hair fans, and we’re not even considering their exposure and increased vulnerability.) So yes, maybe we can limit exposure and possibly reduce >1 transmissions/deaths, but that would require students to surrender minor personal and social comforts to community-protection interests. If you are not willing to do that, how is that not selfish? And what kind of “brother”, “sister” or “family” are you if you are unwilling to prevent more death of classmates? Not one I would want.

just curious - why would you apply general population percentages to a student body - when if there is one thing we know about this disease it does not effect younger people nearly as dramatically? There is not likely to be anywhere close to 4-5 of our students dying form covid - in fact it is very likely zero. If you want to make the case they can infect someone else I get it - but the students are definitely not in danger. Its like asking all of them not to drive because statistically one of them will die in a car wreck.
. I was suggesting general population within their age group...University students will undoubtedly have higher transmission percentages than non-university peers in their age group: Close quartering, shared rooms, shared showers and restrooms, shared dining, parties, shared beverages, shared bodily-fluids. It is likely >1 lives are at stake with COVID protections; suggesting low mortality percentages means we can ignore them obscures the fact that even low percentages have >1 predictions with large populations. Seatbelts can sometimes be uncomfortable, and auto accidents are rare, but I bet that most of you would not have an issue with SMU police ticketing students who drive on campus without seatbelts. I don’t think many of you would have a problem with SMU making a “buckle up for Peruna, seatbelts save lives” campaign. I feel masks are like seatbelts; if it prevents one student death it is worth enforcement for all. You can say “not anywhere close to 4-5” but that’s what general pop. percentages for that student age group would predict according to CDC. I’m sure there are plenty of aged fans at the game that would also appreciate not being exposed to COVID-19. I/We are not even including their morality risks in these estimates.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby Dukie » Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:46 pm

SMUer wrote:I’m sure there are plenty of aged fans at the game that would also appreciate not being exposed to COVID-19. I/We are not even including their morality risks in these estimates.

We’re also back to pretending that mortality within the first month is the only possible or relevant bad outcome.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby SMU_Alum11 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:29 am

JasonB wrote:The students aren't just going maskless on the lawn. They are going maskless in the concourse and in the beer lines, and around the Mi Cocina food truck, around older people.

All of them are going to be in confined indoor spaces this week, around older professors and other SMU staff

Please tell me the country on earth who have managed to restrict infections such that only young people are getting infected and older people aren't. Oh, that country, state, ,or city doesn't exist. Period.

Nobody in the history of disease has every managed to allow community spread amongst one age group and prevented it from impacting the other age groups. Ever.

If nobody has ever been able to do it before, I highly doubt that we will be able to do it now. Over the summer, we already knew that for the most part it was older people dying. But yet we couldn't prevent people from dying - 15K in Texas, 200K across the US.

If you want to make the argument that masks shouldn't be required on a hot day in open air environments because the risk of transmission is low, that is a legit point of discussion.

But if you are going to try and argue that we will be the first country on earth to ever prevent community spread of a disease to a specific segment of the population, to put it nicely... the odds of that actually happening are incredibly low and it isn't really a viable option.


Sweden says hi.
Yikes. No TJ and especially Reggie is devastating.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby EastStang » Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:36 am

SMU_Alum11 wrote:
JasonB wrote:The students aren't just going maskless on the lawn. They are going maskless in the concourse and in the beer lines, and around the Mi Cocina food truck, around older people.

All of them are going to be in confined indoor spaces this week, around older professors and other SMU staff

Please tell me the country on earth who have managed to restrict infections such that only young people are getting infected and older people aren't. Oh, that country, state, ,or city doesn't exist. Period.

Nobody in the history of disease has every managed to allow community spread amongst one age group and prevented it from impacting the other age groups. Ever.

If nobody has ever been able to do it before, I highly doubt that we will be able to do it now. Over the summer, we already knew that for the most part it was older people dying. But yet we couldn't prevent people from dying - 15K in Texas, 200K across the US.

If you want to make the argument that masks shouldn't be required on a hot day in open air environments because the risk of transmission is low, that is a legit point of discussion.

But if you are going to try and argue that we will be the first country on earth to ever prevent community spread of a disease to a specific segment of the population, to put it nicely... the odds of that actually happening are incredibly low and it isn't really a viable option.


Sweden says hi.


Or better yet, hold my beer.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby JasonB » Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:24 am

HubbaHubba wrote:No doubt they should be wearing masks and/or practicing safe social distancing. How about when they enter the stadium they hand out SMU masks to the fans. Make them match the uniforms, maybe different each week, a collectors item or have a mask contest at half time or roaming camera (like kiss camera) looking for the best masks. Let the marketing people loose on this. Let's turn it into a positive.

On the other hand, this whole situation is so much our unfortunate heritage. If this was enforced by the NCAA we would be given the death penalty again when, in every other game I saw this weekend, the fans were unmasked and clumped up much worse than our students.


Awesome idea on handing out masks. Maybe potential liability issue for handing them out? THat is the only reason I can think of...
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby JasonB » Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:25 am

SMU_Alum11 wrote:
JasonB wrote:The students aren't just going maskless on the lawn. They are going maskless in the concourse and in the beer lines, and around the Mi Cocina food truck, around older people.

All of them are going to be in confined indoor spaces this week, around older professors and other SMU staff

Please tell me the country on earth who have managed to restrict infections such that only young people are getting infected and older people aren't. Oh, that country, state, ,or city doesn't exist. Period.

Nobody in the history of disease has every managed to allow community spread amongst one age group and prevented it from impacting the other age groups. Ever.

If nobody has ever been able to do it before, I highly doubt that we will be able to do it now. Over the summer, we already knew that for the most part it was older people dying. But yet we couldn't prevent people from dying - 15K in Texas, 200K across the US.

If you want to make the argument that masks shouldn't be required on a hot day in open air environments because the risk of transmission is low, that is a legit point of discussion.

But if you are going to try and argue that we will be the first country on earth to ever prevent community spread of a disease to a specific segment of the population, to put it nicely... the odds of that actually happening are incredibly low and it isn't really a viable option.


Sweden says hi.


Google "has sweden prevented old people from geting covid" and tell me what their Prime Minister says.
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Re: Memphis Game Thread

Postby Pony ^ » Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:54 am

If you have a problem with it avoid the hill. Or better yet, don't go to the game and stay in the basement.
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