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JasonB

Postby dalpony » Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:59 pm

We all need your expert analysis of game!
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Re: JasonB

Postby PNW_Stang » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:37 pm

Ha I also wanted to send up the bat signal for a JasonB analysis
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Re: JasonB

Postby JasonB » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:34 pm

It took me a couple of days to get over that. I had wanted to wait until I got to watch a replay, but I haven't been able to do that.

Here is what I think:

- As frustrating as the game was, we wasted 5 possessions in the first half - 3 turnovers and two 3rd down drops. We would have scored 35 in the second half if Gray doesn't drop the TD pass on 4th down. We played really, really bad, but still won and covered a 22 point spread. I don't think that has happened in the past 25 years. It is nice to see Dykes look miserable after we win by 23.
- Mordecai is holding the ball too long because he is waiting for people to get open instead of anticipating that they will get open. That is a big trust learning curve for most QBs. You have to trust 1) that your WR will break open and 2) that your WR is going to runt he correct route and break when you expect them to. If you look at the long TD passes, they were plays where he rolled out to buy time, and players came open after long runs, so he could see that they were actually open before he threw. That is going to need to change before TCU if we are going to have any shot at that game. Otherwise, he is going to get killed.
- I *think* (again, haven't watched a replay) that Thomas and Ali really struggled with the big NT for UNT. They blew us up right up the middle on a couple of passing plays.
- Morris had a rough day pass blocking as well. And Osborne, but not as bad as Morris. Things seemed more solid after 52 came in.
- Some of the pressure on TM was the pass blocking, but he also got caught with the ball too long, for the reasons stated above.
- The run defense was great. We missed a couple of tackles, but overall, the DL and LB play is going to be a strength all season.
- Secondary wasn't great, but their QB had a really strong game. I don't think 1 played in the first half? We got lucky on one blown coverage in the first half that the QB didn't recognize, and our safeties are still the weakness, but two more picks from the safeties in this game was nice. 4 in two weeks. Massey at slot corner was pretty good.
- If the defense had an elite pass rusher, it would be an elite defense. When the other team gets in a rhythm, pass rush is what breaks it up. Without "that guy" the defense is still going to be one of the top units in conference. But that is what is separating our defense from something like what Cincy has.
- I still have us at 9-3, because of our playmakers and defense. But Mordecai is going to learn how to anticipate better if we are going to be competitive against TCU, UCF, and Cincy. If he doesn't those games might get out of hand, especially because I don't have any confidence in our running game against good defenses.

That said, it is still nice to win a game by 23 after we turn the ball over 4 times.
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Re: JasonB

Postby SmooBoy » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:08 pm

JasonB wrote:It took me a couple of days to get over that. I had wanted to wait until I got to watch a replay, but I haven't been able to do that.

Here is what I think:

- As frustrating as the game was, we wasted 5 possessions in the first half - 3 turnovers and two 3rd down drops. We would have scored 35 in the second half if Gray doesn't drop the TD pass on 4th down. We played really, really bad, but still won and covered a 22 point spread. I don't think that has happened in the past 25 years. It is nice to see Dykes look miserable after we win by 23.
- Mordecai is holding the ball too long because he is waiting for people to get open instead of anticipating that they will get open. That is a big trust learning curve for most QBs. You have to trust 1) that your WR will break open and 2) that your WR is going to runt he correct route and break when you expect them to. If you look at the long TD passes, they were plays where he rolled out to buy time, and players came open after long runs, so he could see that they were actually open before he threw. That is going to need to change before TCU if we are going to have any shot at that game. Otherwise, he is going to get killed.
- I *think* (again, haven't watched a replay) that Thomas and Ali really struggled with the big NT for UNT. They blew us up right up the middle on a couple of passing plays.
- Morris had a rough day pass blocking as well. And Osborne, but not as bad as Morris. Things seemed more solid after 52 came in.
- Some of the pressure on TM was the pass blocking, but he also got caught with the ball too long, for the reasons stated above.
- The run defense was great. We missed a couple of tackles, but overall, the DL and LB play is going to be a strength all season.
- Secondary wasn't great, but their QB had a really strong game. I don't think 1 played in the first half? We got lucky on one blown coverage in the first half that the QB didn't recognize, and our safeties are still the weakness, but two more picks from the safeties in this game was nice. 4 in two weeks. Massey at slot corner was pretty good.
- If the defense had an elite pass rusher, it would be an elite defense. When the other team gets in a rhythm, pass rush is what breaks it up. Without "that guy" the defense is still going to be one of the top units in conference. But that is what is separating our defense from something like what Cincy has.
- I still have us at 9-3, because of our playmakers and defense. But Mordecai is going to learn how to anticipate better if we are going to be competitive against TCU, UCF, and Cincy. If he doesn't those games might get out of hand, especially because I don't have any confidence in our running game against good defenses.

That said, it is still nice to win a game by 23 after we turn the ball over 4 times.


Great analysis. QB will only get better, so if we are complaining about 11 TD passes in two games, this is a good thing.
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Re: JasonB

Postby HubbaHubba » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:31 pm

Thanks for the analysis. Agree with most of what you remember though I thought safety play was good and corner somewhat iffy. Safeties had the interceptions. Trevor led the team in tackles, mostly solo, and was tight on pass coverage. He did get stiff armed on that TD but kept after it. We do need a Jerry Ball at NG.
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Re: JasonB

Postby Charleston Pony » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:02 pm

HubbaHubba wrote: We do need a Jerry Ball at NG.
Would be great to have a Michael Carter or Jerry Ball but those guys play at only a handful of schools these days!
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Re: JasonB

Postby Terry Webster » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:30 pm

Coach mentioned tonight that there would be some shifting on the OL this week. Wonder who goes where?
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Re: JasonB

Postby PNW_Stang » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:06 pm

I’m no expert, but seems they took our OL that seemed to do the poorest last year (Morris), and put him at the most important position (left tackle). If you watch that play where Mordecai gets hit from behind and causes an interception, Morris just stood there while a guy ran right by him to hit Mordecai.
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Re: JasonB

Postby Arkpony » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:08 am

I have worried about our run blocking for both games. Our “improved “ line doesn’t look so improved at all.
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Re: JasonB

Postby birddogger » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:13 am

Arkpony wrote:I have worried about our run blocking for both games. Our “improved “ line doesn’t look so improved at all.


Big improvement in O line play in second half. What changes in scheme/personnel were made?
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Re: JasonB

Postby docabel » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:44 am

birddogger wrote:
Arkpony wrote:I have worried about our run blocking for both games. Our “improved “ line doesn’t look so improved at all.


Big improvement in O line play in second half. What changes in scheme/personnel were made?


My take was their D-line was getting worn down. Their twin DEs played the majority of the snaps until they both started cramping up in the 4th. Our D-line was constantly rotating throughout the game which ntsu couldn't match.
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Re: JasonB

Postby birddogger » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:52 am

docabel wrote:
birddogger wrote:
Arkpony wrote:I have worried about our run blocking for both games. Our “improved “ line doesn’t look so improved at all.


Big improvement in O line play in second half. What changes in scheme/personnel were made?


My take was their D-line was getting worn down. Their twin DEs played the majority of the snaps until they both started cramping up in the 4th. Our D-line was constantly rotating throughout the game which ntsu couldn't match.



I could see them wearing out as the game progressed, but the improvement began almost immediately from the beginning of the second half. Perhaps some verbal motivation from the staff?
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Re: JasonB

Postby JasonB » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:44 pm

I noticed the big DT a lot in the first half. In the second, he stopped showing up.

Sonny is surely referring to J Thomas. Not getting the push in the running game that was expected. I'd expect to see him back at LT.

I think it will be very interesting to see who he switches over to RT to run second string at that spot. and it seems like Ervin is next man up at Guard right now, so I would expect him to play at LG.
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Re: JasonB

Postby SMU_Alum11 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:44 pm

Jason I saw your prediction is that we should easily cover the spread. I agree with it in my prediction as well but curious: based on our past Week's performance, what kept your confidence on them being able to do it on the road?
Leave Garrett Riley in Ruston with his notice. Time to get a new OC with a brain.
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Re: JasonB

Postby JasonB » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:22 pm

If our offence got out of its own way in the first half, we would have scored well over 50. I suspect the changes in the oline will have a positive impact. LT hasn't done anything to impress anyone defensively so far. I don't think 50 will be a challenge if we play up to our potential.

Defensively, I like our athleticism in the secondary. We are 18th in 3rd down defense. 3rd in interceptions. 11th in scoring defense. 25th in pass efficiency defense. Our rush defense looks good. These are significant improvements from last year for the opening games. We gave up 35 to UNT last year. LT has a good QB, and I do think we will get caught in a bust and give up some yards. Our lack of elite pass rusher is going to show up in this game when we need to get off the field a couple times. But I think we hold them under 30. I think I said 20 in the prediction thread, but I meant 30.

HOWEVER, if the weather sucks, throw all this out the window. I don't trust us to be able to run the ball if we have to right now. I trust our run defense, but the game will be a lot closer.
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