Pony NATE-tion: Mid-season review

[PonyPride]

Pony NATE-tion: Mid-season review
Nate breaks down Mustangs' first six games, predicts home stretch
Posted on 10/16/2021 by PonyFans.com

PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. With the Mustangs off this week, until Thursday's home game against Tulane, Nate recaps the first half of the season and looks ahead to what awaits down the stretch.
Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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As the Mustangs hit the midpoint of their season with a bye week placed perfectly in the middle, this is a good time to take a step back and evaluate how things are going for SMU. The Mustangs are 6-0 and are ranked No. 23 as they head into the meat of their conference schedule. SMU swept its nonconference schedule in exciting fashion with two blowout wins, a Hail Mary for a third win and a thrilling victory in the Battle for the Iron Skillet. After conference victories over USF and Navy, it is fair to say that the Mustangs can set their sights on the heavyweights of the American Athletic Conference.
The schedule gets significantly more difficult in the coming weeks. After next Thursday’s home affair with Tulane, the Mustangs’ final five games include road trips to Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati, with Tulsa and UCF being the two home games. SMU has gotten off to fast starts in each of the past two seasons but limped a bit to the finish line. In the fourth year under head coach Sonny Dykes, the Ponies are hopeful that they have more depth this year to be able to make it through the difficulties of a full season. Let’s look at where each unit stands now:

Offense
The SMU offense has been, simply put, incredible. The transition from Shane Buechele to Tanner Mordecai has been almost seamless. SMU is currently 10th in the nation in total offense and is ninth in the country in points per game with 40.7. Through six games, Mordecai is ninth in the country with an average of 315.5 passing yards per game, is eighth in completion percentage at 71 percent and leads the nation with 26 touchdown passes.

While Mordecai has been great, he has an impressive array of weapons at his disposal. Wide receiver Danny Gray has continued to break out, as he leads the team in receptions (30), receiving yards (469), and touchdowns (seven). Rashee Rice and Reggie Roberson are not far behind: Rice has 30 catches for 375 yards and six scores and Roberson has 27 catches for 365 yards and four scores. Tight end Grant Calcaterra has seamlessly filled in for now-Indianapolis Colt Kylen Granson, as Calcaterra has been a consistent red zone threat for Mordecai with 234 yards and three scores. His rapport with Mordecai from their days at Oklahoma has carried over. Don’t forget the emergence of Arizona State transfer wideout Jordan Kerley, who has scored in three of the last four games. It truly is an embarrassment of riches.

SMU’s passing attack has been complemented well by a very good rushing attack, as well. The Ponies are averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game, including a 350-yard thrashing of TCU. Ulysses Bentley still is the leading rusher despite missing the USF game and essentially missing the Navy game. Bentley is averaging more than seven yards per carry. His absence has led to North Texas transfer Tre Siggers taking a larger role; he has been a nice addition with 392 rushing yards of his own. Factor in short-yardage back Tyler Lavine, who adds some weight and punch to the running game, and the Mustangs have a very nice trio on which to lean. The Mustangs’ rushing offense ranks 36th in the country in yards per game and 26th in yards per rush.

Leading this whole unit, however, is my preseason Offensive MVP: the offensive line. SMU’s veteran group has been fantastic, leading the way for one of the best offenses in the country. Even more importantly, Mordecai has rarely been touched. In fact, he has been sacked just once, which is tied with Army for the fewest in the country. But those sacks allowed could not represent a less equal comparison: the Mustangs drop back an average of 38 times per game, while the run-first Army offense has attempted just 6.67 passes per game.

Offensive line coach A.J. Ricker deserves a lot of credit for building this unit up over the years, as all of that work has resulted in one of the best offensive lines in both the AAC and in the country.

Defense
SMU’s defense has been much-improved under first-year defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt. Most notably, the Mustangs have been very good at getting off the field on third down, ranking 33rd in the country in opponent third down conversion percentage, allowing just 34.1 percent. Here is where SMU ranks out of the 130 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in some other defensive categories:

• Total defense: 79 (390.7 yards per game)

• Takeaways: T-40 (9)

• Passing defense: 96 (251.8 yards per game)

• Red Zone Defense: 16 (70 percent)

• Rushing Defense: 58 (138.8 yards per game)

• Scoring Defense: 44 (22.2 points per game)

• Sacks: T-72 (12)

• Tackles for Loss: 101 (29)

One noticeable shift in Leavitt’s defense is there is much less gambling going on. In prior years, the Mustangs were among the country’s leaders in splash plays like tackles for loss and sacks, but a lot of that was due to an aggressive scheme that was susceptible to big plays. SMU has never had an elite pass rusher that was able to get sacks on his own, which forced the Mustangs to be aggressive on defense and create havoc. Leavitt is running a much sounder scheme that will give up some yards but is situationally good. SMU has one of the best red zone and third down defenses in the country and it has paid dividends. There is plenty of “bend but don’t break” to this unit, which is perfectly fine when the offense is as elite as SMU’s is.

Gary Wiley leads the Mustangs with four sacks and four tackles for loss, is tied for second with three quarterback hits (defensive end DeVere Levelston has four) and a forced fumble. Delano Robinson and Shane Hailey have been very good at linebacker so far, as they are the two team leaders in tackles with 37 and 35, respectively. Elijah Chatman has been a force in the middle of the defensive line with a motor that runs hot. Overall, the defensive line is as deep as it has been in some time with Levelston, Chatman, Mike Williams, Terrance Newman and Nelson Paul.

The defense as a whole has been precisely what Sonny Dykes needs when the offense is this good: enough. Now it is just about holding up into the meat of the schedule.

Second-half predictions
The Mustangs will have every opportunity to make it to the American Athletic Conference Championship and control their own destiny. It is difficult to forecast what exactly lies ahead with six weeks to play, but one thing is certain: the road trip to Houston is absolutely a must-win. Getting that tiebreaker over the team most likely to compete for the second AAC Championship game spot (assuming No. 3 Cincinnati gets one spot) is beyond crucial. If SMU drops the Houston game, it will essentially be two games back of the Cougars given the tiebreaker. It would essentially be a death sentence when comparing the remaining schedules after the October 30 matchup:

• SMU: at Memphis, UCF, at Cincinnati, Tulsa

• Houston: at USF, at Temple, Memphis, at Connecticut

It is highly unlikely that SMU runs the table against that schedule and even more unlikely that Houston loses two of its final three conference games against the weaker AAC teams and Connecticut. I would peg the Houston game as the most important remaining game for the Ponies if they want a shot at the conference championship. SMU really can not afford to lose the Houston game, but it can probably afford to lose one non-Houston game (presumably at Cincinnati). If the Ponies can get to the Nov. 20 trip to Cincy still undefeated, they will be all but guaranteed a spot in the AAC Championship.

Now as for what I think will happen? I think SMU drops one of the three games against Houston, Memphis and UCF and heads into Cincinnati with one loss on the ledger — you just hope that one loss isn’t to the Cougars. I’ve got the Ponies going 10-2 and barely missing out on an AAC Championship trip. Buckle up, because this could be the most exciting second half for SMU in a long time.

[SMU_Alum11]

The hard part is while I think we have the talent but our current wins are from teams who have a cumulative record of 8-21 on the FBS opponents. Whereas after Tulane, things are tough primarily around Houston (who lost to Tech who lost to TCU) and Cincy. I think UCF is trash given their critical injuries. Memphis looks too new and hopefully we get out 2019 revenge.

[ponyboy]

Good stuff, Nate.

[Smumba2009]

Nice write up Nate. I'd say our record depends on two variables: Health of the team and cleanliness of execution. If we are healthy and play to our potential we could literally run the table and find ourselves in playoff conversations. If one of those two variables is a negative we could end up losing several games. One thing is clear.... we haven't played a complete game with a complete team yet. If we do that our team could beat anybody.

[Arkpony]

I have agree. IF we can play a complete game, we can beat even Cincinnati. If we don’t we will lose at least 2 games.

[Charleston Pony]

Clearly this team is deeper and better than last year's team, but Cincy appears to be stronger as well. Will be a huge challenge trying to bump them off but hope we can run the table with the rest of our schedule and get 2 shots at the Bearcats

[78pony]

Agree with you completely, Nate. I believe we may have an inflated opinion of ourselves. We are good, but slightly above average good. I say we take a loss into Cindy and then play a good game at UC, but lose by 10ish. I think UH beats us, and I think if that happens its a 50/50 deal vs memphis.
And I hope I'm completely wrong.
But I watched La Tech game closely and wow, that was just answered prayers.