Pony NATE-tion: Can SMU extend Tulane's 2021 skid?[

[PonyPride]

Can SMU extend Tulane's 2021 skid?
Mustangs face Green Wave Thursday night
Posted on 10/20/2021 by PonyFans.com

PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. With the Mustangs off this past weekend, Nate looks ahead to Thursday's home game against Tulane.
Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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After the bye week the Mustangs welcome the Tulane Green Wave to Dallas for an interesting Thursday night matchup. Tulane has been one of the disappointments in the American Athletic Conference this season, as head coach Willie Fritz’s team has failed to build on some recent success from 2018 to 2020. Tulane is now 1-5 and has lost four straight games.

It has suffered partly at the hands of a tough schedule that has included road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss, a strong Group of Five opponent in UAB, and Houston. The Green Wave took care of Morgan State but got shredded for more than 600 yards against a middling East Carolina team in a 52-29 loss.

What exactly has gone wrong for Tulane? It starts with the defense being abysmal under first-year defensive coordinator Chris Hampton. Teams are moving the ball with ease against Tulane, rolling up 474 yards per game, more than 24 first downs per game, 197 rushing yards per game, and a brutal 6.2 yards per play. For reference on yards per play, SMU’s offense, which is one of the highest ranked in the country, averages 6.7 yards per play.

Tulane has also struggled mightily on third down. Opponents are converting more than 40 percent of their third downs against Tulane, and have converted red zone opportunities into touchdowns 80 percent of the time as well, which is one of the few areas in which SMU’s offense has struggled at times.

Tulane’s defense is led by safety Macon Clark, who has 40 tackles, three tackles for loss, a sack and an interception. The Green Wave’s co-leaders in sacks are defensive linemen Noah Seiden and. JoJo Dorceus with 2.5 sacks each, followed by a handful of defenders with one or two sacks. One of the players in that handful is the team leader in tackles for loss with six, Darius Hodges. Tulane deploys him all over the field as a hybrid linebacker that does a bit of everything. One of Tulane’s biggest defensive weapons defensive back Jadon Canady, who is third in tackles and has an interception, two pass breakups, and a quarterback hit. One more name to keep an eye on is Jaylon Monroe, who leads Tulane’s defensive backfield in pass breakups with five.

Offensively, the Green Wave has been OK. Tulane is averaging almost 33 points per game, but when you take away a 69-point outburst against Morgan State, that 32.8 points per game drops to 25.6, which is not good enough, especially when trying to keep up with an offense like SMU. The Green Wave is averaging 398 yards per game, with 258.5 yards per game coming through the air and the other 140 yards coming on the ground. Tulane has struggled to run the ball more than in recent years, with just 3.9 yards per rush, and is on pace for its worst rushing averages in Fritz’s tenure.

Tulane is also minus-seven in the turnover margin, which certainly has been a key in the Green Wave’s losses. Turning the ball over 14 times in just six games is something that I imagine would drive Fritz insane. The Green Wave ranks No. 120 in the country in giveaways and is 128th in the country in turnover margin, and also has struggled to protect its quarterback, ranking 97th in sacks allowed. In the most recent outing, Houston sacked quarterback Michael Pratt eight times.
Pratt has been OK this season, completing 60 percent of his passes for 227 yards per game with a 13-5 touchdown-interception ratio. Pratt also has rushed for four scores. He just has not had much to speak of in terms of pass-catching weapons.

Not one receiver is even on pace for 500 yards this season. The leading wide receiver is Jaetavian Toles, who has 214 yards. Tulane’s overall leading receiver in catches, yards, yards per receptions and touchdowns is tight end Tyrick James, who has 343 receiving yards on a team-leading 22 receptions, averages 15.5 yards per reception and has three touchdowns. Pratt does spread the ball around: there are eight receivers with at least 10 receptions. For reference to how much better SMU’s passing attack is, SMU has six receivers with more than 20 receptions and four receivers with more than 30 receptions; by comparison, Tulane has just one receiver with more than 20 receptions.

Tulane is led in rushing by Cameron Carroll with 272 rushing yards and two scores. The other primary back is Tyjae Spears, who has 116 yards and two scores of his own. Tulane doesn’t have a single back that averages more than 50 rushing yards per game.

This appears to be another pretty clear mismatch for SMU. It is one more opportunity to get a conference win and clean some things up before the schedule significantly stiffens. Following Tulane, the Mustangs head to Houston for a complete must-win game, then go to Memphis, come home to face UCF, head to No. 2 Cincinnati and finally come home for Tulsa.

I’m expecting a clean game from the Mustangs coming off the bye week and a bit of a sloppy performance against Navy. Tulane's defense has struggled mightily in tackling and has been getting driven on up and down the field. A big area where the SMU offense can and will take advantage is on third down. SMU is one of the better teams on third down, converting almost 45 percent of its third downs compared to Tulane allowing a 40 percent conversion rate.

Look for another big day from SMU on both sides of the ball, especially on offense given Tulane’s defensive struggles. This will be a clean win for the Ponies as they head into the crucial portion of their schedule. I’ve got the Mustangs in a rout.

Nate’s take: SMU 45, Tulane 28

[PNW_Stang]

Only Tulane game I watched was against OU, where they had a chance to win at the end. However, reading all your statistics, I’m now confident we win by 3+ scores.

[ojaipony]

As awesome as Nate is, a big thing he fails to bring up is the injury bug bit Tulane hard. It sounds like most will all be back for this game (well rested and fresh). This will be a tight, hard fought game. Now, we SHOULD win (by 1 or 2 scores for sure) but it won't be a walk in the park by any means.