Pony NATE-tion: SMU faces biggest test at Houston

[PonyPride]

Pony NATE-tion: Mustangs face biggest game of season at Houston
Winner will inch closer to conference championship game
Posted on 10/27/2021 by PonyFans.com

PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate weighs in on whether the Mustangs can remain undefeated when they head to Houston to take on the 6-1 Houston Cougars.

Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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The SMU Mustangs, ranked No. 16 in the USA Today AFCA Sports Coaches Poll and 19 by the Associated Press, head to Houston for what could amount to a de facto American Athletic Conference semifinal game. As I have detailed before, based on how the schedule shakes out, this game might determine who will ultimately meet Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. After a relatively soft first seven games (TCU aside), the schedule significantly stiffens starting this week.

After an impressive drubbing of Tulane last Thursday, the Mustangs get an extra three days to prepare for their biggest game to date. Given the extra practice time, this is certainly a spot in which coaching will matter. Skeptics of SMU will attribute its impressive start to a soft schedule, but SMU can only beat the teams on its schedule. There have been some sloppy stretches of football, but the Mustangs have generally blown out the teams they are supposed to blow out.

Houston comes in with a 6-1 record and riding a six-game winning streak, albeit against a weaker set of opponents. The Cougars’ six wins came against Rice, Grambling, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane and East Carolina (in an overtime nail-biter). Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen is in his third season with the Cougars and appears to have finally gained some momentum.

Offensively, Houston quarterback Clayton Tune has been playing at a high level. Tune is 14th in the country and second in the AAC in completion percentage, at 69.7 percent. The Cougars are averaging 36.3 points per game, 363.7 yards per game and are converting over 40 percent of their third downs. Houston does most of its damage through the air, as it averages just 3.5 yards per rush. Houston has struggled in pass protection, as Tune has been sacked 20 times (almost three times per game) and has been banged up recently.

Tune has thrown for 203 yards per game, 12 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Tune spreads the ball around well, as seven of his weapons have at least 10 receptions. Nathaniel Dell leads Houston in every category with 39 receptions, 510 yards and four touchdowns. Tune also leans fairly heavily on tight end Christian Trahan, who has 23 catches for 261 yards. Tune’s favorite deep threat is Jeremy Singleton, who is averaging more than 18 yards per reception.

Houston’s ground attack is led primarily by Alton McCaskill, who is getting the bulk of the carries. McCaskill has 463 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry to go along with nine touchdowns. Ta’Zhawn Henry and Mulbah Car get the rest of the carries to spell McCaskill.

Houston’s counting stats aren’t incredibly impressive and are not on par with some of the electric offensive units Holgorsen had at West Virginia, but the Cougars have been able to put together 36 points per game with great red zone efficiency and good third down efficiency. Sustaining drives and cashing in red zone opportunities is a recipe for offensive success. Tune does a good job of orchestrating Holgorsen’s offense and moving the ball.

Houston has made its money defensively. The Cougars are surrendering just 17.3 points per game and 278 yards per game. They also are incredible on third down and head coach Sonny Dykes will have to figure out how to move the chains against the nation’s best third down defense. Houston’s 23.4 percent defensive third down conversion rate ranks first in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Houston has been incredibly stout especially against the run, as teams are averaging less than three yards per carry against the Cougars. Houston’s 2.9 yards per rush allowed ranks ninth in the country and it’s 104.7 rushing yards per game surrendered ranks 18th in the nation. The Cougars’ defensive front is not just great at stopping the run but is also phenomenal at rushing the passer. Houston’s absurd 29 sacks ranks second in the country and its 47 tackles for loss rank 11th.

Houston’s pass defense has been very good as well. UH’s defensive passing effiiciency ranks 42nd in the country. The Cougars also rank 12th in passing defense, surrendering just 173 passing yards per game. This truly is one of the best defenses in the country. Houston does literally everything well defensively.

Houston’s defense has several capable pass rushers; seven defenders have at least two sacks. This unit is littered with playmakers, as there are 11 players who have registered at least a half a sack and 11 players that have registered multiple tackles for loss. Defensive end Derek Parish leads the way with four sacks, and not far behind him are the co-leaders in tackles for loss, defensive linemen David Anenih and D’Anthony Jones, who each have 3.5 sacks. Houston’s back end is led by cornerback Damarion Williams, who is second on the team in tackles, has an interception and leads the team in pass breakups with four.

This is SMU’s toughest test of the season and likely will determine who challenges Cincinnati for the AAC crown. As I have detailed before, if SMU loses, it would essentially be two games behind Houston with the tiebreaker and would need to both win out and need Houston to lose twice in a three-game stretch of three games against USF, Temple and Memphis. The Cougars are not losing twice in those three games, and even if they did, that assumes SMU wins out against Memphis, UCF, Cincinnati and Tulsa, which is almost even more unlikely. The point is: SMU needs to win this game.

There are a couple really important battles that will determine the outcome of this game, and I don’t think either really involves the matchup of the Houston offense and the SMU defense. The Mustang defense has been much improved, but this game will be won or lost when the Mustangs have the ball. It’s the classic clash of the unstoppable force and the immovable object. SMU’s elite offense matching up with Houston’s elite defense will be a fascinating chess match.

The two previously mentioned battles that will decide this game are how SMU’s offense fares on third down, and the battle up front. SMU’s offensive line has done a tremendous job both on the ground and in keeping Tanner Mordecai clean. The unit will have its hands full as Houston’s ferocious defensive front will be a problem.

But where football games are won more often than not is how well teams can sustain drives. Houston’s top-ranked third down defense will have the difficult task of stopping one of the nation’s best offenses. SMU has been great on third down this season as well, converting 45.7 percent of its third downs. The best way to convert third downs is to stay ahead of the chains and keep the third down distances manageable. SMU’s early-down execution will be crucial, because if the Mustangs get into difficult third down situations, Houston’s vice grip on defense will take over. SMU has to stay ahead of the chains if it wants to win.

SMU is in its third season of relevance under Dykes, and all three years have begun with an awesome winning streak only to sputter in the back half of the season. This is SMU’s opportunity to take that next step and sustain success over a whole season. This is precisely the game SMU would lose in 2019 and 2020, and I fear that the matchup is too fierce. SMU is every bit as talented as Houston, but football is about matchups, and I think the Ponies might match up poorly with the Cougars.

This is SMU’s biggest game since the 2019 trip to Memphis that involved ESPN’s College Gameday and it is the Mustangs’ best chance to reach the AAC Championship Game since joining the conference.

It will require an incredibly clean game for the Mustangs to move to 8-0. The extra three days of preparation and only playing one game in three weeks should mean SMU will be very fresh, but the Cougars’ defense can slow SMU down. It will be a thriller, but I think the Mustangs come up short. I have to see the program take that next step before believing it.

Nate’s take: Houston 31, SMU 30

[SmooBoy]

Can't argue with any of that, Nate. It's a toss up for sure.

Thanks for the analysis as always.

[TidePony]

If they play like they did against ECU, we’ll win - it’s that simple. They have to play their best game, too.

[indianmustang]

something i read in other post is UH defense need to play perfect

[SMU_Alum11]

What I'm curious in your review of Houston is not mentioning their recent performance of Tulane (a comparable opponent between the teams) and ECU. Both were last minute finishes where it wasn't the case for SMU against Tulane. Like my prediction in the other thread, Tech also beat Houston when TCU took care of Tech. I think SMUs offense will be superior to their defense and their offense won't be able to do much against our defense just based on both teams recent performance.

[ojaipony]

[deleted], Nate's predictions are usually correct. REALLY hope he got this one wrong.

[SMU_Alum11]

[deleted], Nate's predictions are usually correct. REALLY hope he got this one wrong.

He predicted TCU would win along the same reasons and Billy Embody got the prediction correct. Waiting for his to come out.

FWIW, I enjoy Nate's analysis but I also like to provide (constructive) criticism.

[Sewanee Stang]

We have extra time to prepare, we are healthier and deeper this year, and we have more weapons. Gray, Roberson, Calcaterra, Rice, Kerley, Massey amount to some serious weaponry. Bentley will play. Mordecai has been playing exceptionally well. Our defense has improved. We have the stronger team. I may be wrong, but I think that we are going to win by a significant margin.

[tristatecoog]

Tanner had a great game against Tulane. While the Green Wave doesn't have a defense as good as UH's, he stepped up well and found lots of receivers. Also, Bentley appears like he'll be back at full speed. A question is the SMU secondary. Will Tune have enough time to find receivers? Will SMU be able to run the ball like it did against TCU? I'd have thought SMU would've been favored by six but instead it's currently a pick 'em.

[smuhype]

Great article NATE.

Sloppy Prediction --- Not sure what you are getting paid for your guidance here pal but come on!!!

SMU 34, Houston 31

End it.

[Smumba2009]

Sending positive energy to Pony nation. Ultimately this game will come down to who plays clean and does their job best. SMU by 14.