Pony NATE-tion: Mustangs seek rebound at Memphis

[PonyPride]

Pony NATE-tion: Mustangs seek rebound at Memphis
Ponies, Tigers kick off at 11 AM Saturday
Posted on 11/03/2021 by PonyFans.com

PonyFans.com is proud to have journalism student Nate back as a guest columnist for the 2021 season. This week, Nate looks back at the Mustangs' loss at Houston and previews Saturday's game at Memphis.

Feel free to post comments and constructive criticism, ask him questions, and/or give suggestions for upcoming columns! (He can be followed on Twitter at @Pony_NATE_tion.)

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The Mustangs took one of the larger gut punches in recent memory as a program last Saturday. SMU took its first loss of the season to Houston, absorbing a severely damaging loss for its conference championship hopes. To say that it was a soul-crushing way to lose a massive game is an understatement, as the Cougars took an SMU kickoff back for a touchdown with under a minute to play, giving Houston a 44-37 victory.

SMU still controls its own destiny, but it will require winning out, including winning on the road against Cincinnati, which is No. 6 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, and No. 2 in the Associated Press and Coaches polls. The loss knocked the Mustangs down to No. 23 in the AP poll and the Mustangs were not ranked in the College Football Playoff committee rankings.

It will be crucial for the Mustangs to maintain their composure and not look ahead on the schedule to Cincinnati and maintain the focus on each week. The other three of the final four games are just as important as the trip to Cincinnati, including this road trip to Memphis.

This Memphis team is nowhere near the quality of the group SMU faced the last time these two teams met in the Liberty Bowl. This game won’t carry nearly the circumstance that the last meeting in Memphis did, a game that started with both teams undefeated and ESPN’s College Gameday being on the scene. Regardless, it’s a must-have game for the Ponies.

After a strong 3-0 start that included a big win over Mississippi State, the Tigers have since dropped four of their last five games. This recent skid includes losses to Temple and Tulsa, which are two of the worst teams in the American Athletic Conference. But while the Mustangs enter the game on the rebound from a potentially draining loss, the Tigers are coming off of a bye week.

Memphis slings the ball around quite effectively. Memphis averages 462 yards per game (second in AAC), throws for 296 yards per game (second in AAC) and 32.5 points per game (fifth in the AAC). Part of the reason the Tigers’ point totals don’t match up with their yardage totals is because they struggle mightily in the red zone, with touchdowns on just 58 percent of the trips to the red zone, which ranks 103rd in the country.

Memphis also is converting third downs at a high level, converting 44.6 percent of its third downs, which is good for 35th in the country. But what has killed its offense all season long is turnovers: the Tigers are 125th out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in turnover margin with a margin of minus-8. Six of Memphis’ 13 turnovers are fumbles and seven are interceptions.

The Tigers offense is led by the AAC’s second-leading passer (behind Tanner Mordecai): Seth Henigan (of Ryan High School in Denton, Texas), who has completed more than 60 percent of his passes for 9.5 yards per completion. Henigan also has thrown 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. His favorite target is the latest in the long line of standout wideouts: Calvin Austin III, who leads the AAC in all three receiving categories of receptions (57), receiving yards (901) and touchdowns (eight). Memphis also leans on its tight end Sean Dykes, who is second on the team with 28 catches for 452 yards and five touchdowns.

The running game relies heavily on Brandon Thomas, who is third in the conference in rushing yards with 661 on 5.9 yards per carry and eight touchdowns. The offensive line has struggled some protecting Henigan; the Memphis pass protection ranks 78th in sacks allowed with 19 in eight games.

Memphis’ defense has been about average within the conference so far. The Tigers defense ranks sixth in the AAC in points per game (29.6), eighth in yards per game (409.8...), seventh in passing yards per game (252.6), and sixth in rushing yards per game (157.1). The Tigers have also struggled getting off the field on third down, ranking 97th in third-down defense with opponents converting 42 percent of their third downs. Compare that to SMU’s offense, which is fantastic on third down, converting 44.3 percent of its attempts, ranking 38th in the country.

Linebacker JJ Russell makes the Memphis defense go. He leads the team with 86 tackles and four quarterback hits. Xavier Cullens is the other linebacker who leads the Memphis defense. Cullens has 51 tackles and leads the team in tackles for loss with 6.5. Defensive back Quindell Johnson leads the secondary and is second on the team in tackles with 73. Johnson also leads the team in pass breakups with five.

As stated earlier, it is crucial for SMU to finish strong. The Ponies still control their own destiny, but in the past two seasons, SMU has faltered at the end of the season after a strong start, and head coach Sonny Dykes expressed his concern about this. “It’s like I told our guys, we haven’t been very good after we lose a game — know what I mean?” he said. “We lost a couple years ago. Didn’t play well at the end of the season in 2019. We lost the Memphis game, and then we lost to Navy a couple weeks later and didn’t play well in the bowl game. Last year, we just didn’t play well at all down the stretch.”

I think the Mustangs offense will have a bounce-back week. SMU was good offensively versus Houston, but it was a bit sloppy and was not up its typical standards. This should be a fun shootout, as all SMU-Memphis games are typically thrilling shootouts. Given the rumors swirling around regarding TCU and Texas Tech’s potential interest in Dykes for their job openings, this is a massive gut check for the Ponies as a program. We will know just how focused this team and staff were this week amid all of the rumors. I think the Mustangs win in a shootout.

Nate’s take: SMU 38, Memphis 35

[PonyPride]

Henigan did not play in Memphis' 24-7 loss to UCF last week. If he can't go, assume it will be Peter Parrish, who transferred from LSU. Against the Knights, Parrish completed 31 of 48 passes for 215 yards, 3 interceptions and no TDs.