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PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby Water Pony » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:44 am

From the Orange County Register:

By JON WILNER |
July 6, 2022 at 8:23 a.m.

Welcome to the fourth installment in a Hotline series on the future of the Pac-12. Links to previous articles are below …

Prior to Thursday, the Pac-12 expected its media rights negotiations to proceed in an orderly manner later this year and lead to a long-awaited jackpot.

Instead, the end of the rainbow will bring only salvation.

The Pac-12 presidents on Tuesday authorized commissioner George Kliavkoff to begin formal discussions with media partners and seek the best possible deal to preserve the conference following the departures of USC and UCLA.

If the options are deemed unsatisfactory, extinction could follow as at least four schools seek membership in the Big 12.

On Tuesday, we outlined the potential for a merger or partnership with the ACC or Big 12. But Kliavkoff is exploring expansion, as well, and that is the focus of our discussion today.

We have no doubt that Kliavkoff will take a bold approach. Remember, the Pac-12 went through this very exercise last summer, when it explored expansion following the SEC’s additions of Texas and Oklahoma.

In fact, the Pac-12 established an expansion committee to evaluate schools based on their competitive, financial and institutional fit. To some extent, the legwork necessary now has already been completed.

Two points before we name names:

1. There are no obvious options, no schools that would add significant financial or competitive value.

When the Big 12 expanded last fall following the Pac-12’s decision to not raid the league, it had four easy answers in BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston.

The Pac-12 has no equivalents, in part because of the paucity of major college football programs in the western half of the country.

2. The great unknown is whether the 10 remaining presidents and chancellors will consider schools that never would have cleared the bar in prosperous times.

Will they invite universities that were once deemed unfit for membership on academic, religious, geographic or political grounds?

If the presidents are flexible, Kliavkoff has intriguing options as he plunges into valuation discussions with ESPN and Fox.

Now, to our list of potential new members …

San Diego State: The Pac-12 presidents have never considered California State University schools, which are not members of the Association of American Universities (AAU), but it might be time to reconsider.

Long after USC and UCLA are gone, Southern California will remain the heart of Pac-12 recruiting — exposure in the region is vital.

Put another way: San Diego is approximately 90 miles from Mater Dei High School’s campus in Santa Ana, comparable to the distance between South Bend and Chicago, College Station and Houston or Athens and Atlanta.

Without the Aztecs, who are building a new football stadium and have a basketball program frequently ranked in the top 25, the Pac-12 would have no presence within 300 miles of the Los Angeles basin.

There are survival scenarios that do not involve expansion. But if the conference adds members, SDSU should be near the top of the list.

Southern Methodist: If the conference desires a foothold in Texas, the Mustangs stand as the easiest add. Unlike Houston, they were not invited into the Big 12 and remain in the depleted American Athletic Conference.

SMU carries the obvious religious affiliation and is neither a member of the AAU nor an R1 research school.

Also, this is the worst possible time to welcome Texas politics into the conference given developments following the Roe vs. Wade ruling.

However, the Mustangs have an endowment in excess of $1 billion and are No. 68 in the latest U.S, News and World Report rankings of national universities — higher than every remaining school in the Pac-12 except Stanford, Cal and Washington. (That’s impressive academic prowess.)

If Kliavkoff wants to sell the presidents and TV partners on something bold, a move into the heart of Big 12 country is the obvious answer.

Fresno State, Boise State or UNLV: Any of these Mountain West schools could be added in tandem with San Diego State, although it’s easy to imagine how that would be received on many Pac-12 campuses.

None of them add media value or clear the traditional academic bar, and UNLV has one of the worst football programs in captivity. But when you aren’t operating from a position of strength, standards must change.

California’s Central Valley is home to 6.5 million people — it’s the equivalent of Seattle and Portland combined — and a good portion of them are Bulldogs fans.

Gonzaga: This is the boldest stroke available to Kliavkoff, albeit one that does not involve football and thus carries limited media rights value. (Then again, there aren’t any football options with significant media right value.)

Snatching the Zags from the West Coast Conference — as a basketball-only member — would give the Pac-12 instant credibility and a reasonable competitive response to UCLA’s departure.

If the conference opted to expand its basketball offerings, it could attempt to poach Saint Mary’s, as well.

Then again, every school in the Pacific Northwest might object to adding the Zags. If there’s a tiger prowling in your backyard, why let it inside the house?

That’s our list, folks.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby redpony » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:56 am

WP- thanks for the article. I suspect that expansion is the last option on the list for the P12 but at least we are getting some consideration. While I would much prefer an invite from the ACC beggars can't be choosers.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby peruna81 » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:58 am

Curious the mention of Roe v. Wade as a reason to presumably shun SMU.

Whole bunch of assumptions presented in that statement.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby BUS » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:13 am

Smu is desirable!
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby AusTxPony » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:33 am

We need to get an invite to the PAC. Logic says SDSU and SMU to PAC for now - East/West Divisions. But logic plays only a small part in the decisions it would appear. Being part of PAC would put us in the Conversation when the AAC gets raided and things get upended again. That will result in 4 MEGA Conferences and we will be in one of them.
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That article above re: SMU is a bit uneducated. SMU is hardly a religious University and Texas is not all conservative, i.e. Austin.
Last edited by AusTxPony on Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby redpony » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:36 am

peruna81 wrote:Curious the mention of Roe v. Wade as a reason to presumably shun SMU.

Whole bunch of assumptions presented in that statement.


IMO our a.d. should be on the phone with the P12 schools clarifying many of those comments. i.e. we no longer have the association with the methodist church we once had. We are working diligently on becoming an R1 university. etc. etc. Plus our endowment is approaching 2 bln.

Now we just need to beat tcwho and MD to start the season and help our image.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby peruna81 » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:45 am

redpony wrote:
peruna81 wrote:Curious the mention of Roe v. Wade as a reason to presumably shun SMU.

Whole bunch of assumptions presented in that statement.


IMO our a.d. should be on the phone with the P12 schools clarifying many of those comments. i.e. we no longer have the association with the methodist church we once had. We are working diligently on becoming an R1 university. etc. etc. Plus our endowment is approaching 2 bln.

Perception being what it is from 1000 miles away, the writer didn't do the due diligence of discovering just what SMU's relationship is with the UMC, and what governance there still is.

As far as the USSC ruling and the state of Texas, that seems to again be a common perception based on...well, politics alone. Kinda like the presumption that if you are from Texas you ride horses and wear cowboy hats. Simplistic, a gross generalization, and lazy journalism.

I DO hope we get in somewhere...but I am not optimistic on the PAC 12-2.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby mtrout » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:45 pm

redpony wrote:Plus our endowment is approaching 2 bln.

Our endowment fund has been approaching 2B for over 15 years now.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby Doesntmatter » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:09 pm

peruna81 wrote:Curious the mention of Roe v. Wade as a reason to presumably shun SMU.

Whole bunch of assumptions presented in that statement.


Being aborted by the SWC gets you in the conversation in a football discussion I guess. He should have also touted our Presidential Library.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby shadowman » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:51 pm

Hey,

At least for once, when a power conference is talking expansion, SMU is sitting squarely in the top 2 by most that have hypothesized the topic.
Probaly won't happen...BUT...maybe it will!!
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby stlpony » Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:04 pm

Interesting article, thanks! The first hurdle is whether or not Oregon, Stanford, and/or Washington can find a better home. This is why the conference will stay together. There is still enough "star" power for the PAC12 to get a significantly better TV package than the Big12. It's not Big10 or SEC dollars, but better than Big12. At that point, the PAC12 will invite the most desirables from the Big12 (probably target both Houston and DFW markets). TCU has the better program, but would they want to pay the exit fee? Would PAC12 rather have SMU's endowment and educational rankings? Maybe Tech's large alumni base and R1 designation makes them palatable? Whatever rationale is used, SMU would end up in one conference or the other! We just need both conferences to exist...until something happens and the stability crashes in yet another 12 months.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby SoCal_Pony » Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:26 pm

a few things...

Utah has said their association with the PAC-12 did wonders for their recruitment of students and professors and overall academic improvement. For this reason, i.e. Academics, if there is no more poaching or relatively little additional poaching of the PAC, I could see the remaining schools staying together until the next great reset occurs with the ACC schools. That would potentially give SMU a ~decade of PAC membership.

San Diego St makes the most sense for PAC expansion as there are too many wealthy PAC alumni in So Cal. Plus a defensive measure against the B12.

In this scenario, I suspect SMU is ahead of Fresno St due purely to academics.

If another Texas school got a PAC invite, I would prefer Rice over Coogs. My bet is the decision makers at these PAC schools feel the same way.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby Thumper » Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:23 pm

Doesntmatter wrote:
peruna81 wrote:Curious the mention of Roe v. Wade as a reason to presumably shun SMU.

Whole bunch of assumptions presented in that statement.


Being aborted by the SWC gets you in the conversation in a football discussion I guess. He should have also touted our Presidential Library.

Interesting. Why?

Conferences don't care about sports other than football -- those mid-week swim meets and soccer games on either coast will be a considerable pain for the coaches and players making the trips. They don't even care about basketball. This realignment is driven by football and football only.

So how is a library going to register on a conference's radar? Seems irrelevant.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby Doesntmatter » Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:18 pm

Thumper wrote:
Doesntmatter wrote:
peruna81 wrote:Curious the mention of Roe v. Wade as a reason to presumably shun SMU.

Whole bunch of assumptions presented in that statement.


Being aborted by the SWC gets you in the conversation in a football discussion I guess. He should have also touted our Presidential Library.

Interesting. Why?

Conferences don't care about sports other than football -- those mid-week swim meets and soccer games on either coast will be a considerable pain for the coaches and players making the trips. They don't even care about basketball. This realignment is driven by football and football only.

So how is a library going to register on a conference's radar? Seems irrelevant.


It is irrelevant like several points in his article but it is California so who knows. Oh, and my post was pure sarcasm. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
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Re: PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

Postby Thumper » Wed Jul 06, 2022 6:16 pm

Oh no. Sorry, the sarcasm can sometimes be tough to pick up online.
I wasn't challenging your comment. Just curious.
Thanks for clarifying.
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