PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

[Dukie]

Will admit I'm not nearly as gung ho on the PAC as so many others seem to be. Smacks of our move to the Big East where as soon as SMU accepts a bid Oregon, Washington, Cal & Stanford move to join USC & UCLA and form the "western division" of the Big 10. That could leave SMU in "no mans land" once again if/when Utah, Colorado and the AZ schools then bolt for the Big XII. Really have to hope in that scenario that the legislatures in Oregon and Washington get involved and prohibit Oregon and Washington from abandoning OSU and WSU. Hopefully the expanded playoffs will motivate the PAC schools to all stay together even if SDSU and SMU become replacements for UCLA and USC.

My worst case scenario is that SMU pulls another Big East fiasco and moves west only to find itself scrambling to find a home once again.

The Big East was indeed a fiasco and that glorious moment when SMU was going to be in a conference with Notre Dame, among others, turned out to be a mirage. But the AAC that resulted was far superior to what SMU was in before the Big East move, so I don’t really see your point.

My worst-case is the upcoming AAC, possibly even without Memphis. Yours? SMU would still have existing ties to Wazzu, SDSU, and Oregon State + the chance to add the best of the MWC and western AAC. That’s not nearly my worst-case. And I really don’t think it’s at all likely that things break that way.

[SMUstang]

We are fortunate that the Big East hired an able commissioner about the time SMU joined their conference. We therefore ended up a notch above the other G5's. Let's face it, except for a few times in our history, that's probably where we belong.

[Smumba2009]

Really good Intel on this topic.....

https://youtu.be/sRPXOKdF9EA

[fan]

Will admit I'm not nearly as gung ho on the PAC as so many others seem to be. Smacks of our move to the Big East where as soon as SMU accepts a bid Oregon, Washington, Cal & Stanford move to join USC & UCLA and form the "western division" of the Big 10. That could leave SMU in "no mans land" once again if/when Utah, Colorado and the AZ schools then bolt for the Big XII. Really have to hope in that scenario that the legislatures in Oregon and Washington get involved and prohibit Oregon and Washington from abandoning OSU and WSU. Hopefully the expanded playoffs will motivate the PAC schools to all stay together even if SDSU and SMU become replacements for UCLA and USC.

My worst case scenario is that SMU pulls another Big East fiasco and moves west only to find itself scrambling to find a home once again.

The Big East was indeed a fiasco and that glorious moment when SMU was going to be in a conference with Notre Dame, among others, turned out to be a mirage. But the AAC that resulted was far superior to what SMU was in before the Big East move, so I don’t really see your point.

My worst-case is the upcoming AAC, possibly even without Memphis. Yours? SMU would still have existing ties to Wazzu, SDSU, and Oregon State + the chance to add the best of the MWC and western AAC. That’s not nearly my worst-case. And I really don’t think it’s at all likely that things break that way.

Couldn't agree more with this statement. On top of that, I've seen statements that claim that an association with the PAC - even for a short time - would enhance our academic standing. That's probably not a popular statement on a football fan board but in the long run will really get us where we need to be in my opinion.

[SoCal_Pony]

Important week for SMU as the UC Regents meet in SF.

On Thursday they take up the UCLA to B10 issue.

I strongly suspect UCLA is allowed to leave, my hope is it gets resolved this week.

After that comes new Media Rights deal, then Expansion.

[SMU_Alum11]

Most likely scenario: UCLA will have to subsidize Cal for the revenue differential. The PAC doesn't want to block UCLA because the Big 10 will come in and take Oregon and Washington. There's reports that the Big 10 could only afford to take USC and UCLA currently and the only expansion area that would be accreative would be in the south east (hint hint ACC).

I would assume all moves go according to plan. SDSU and one other (most likely us) will get added at a lower tier with an ability to get higher payout via CFP (let's not assume that for now).

In 5+ years, the ACC GoR will break and realignment will reoccur thus we might bounce over to there or just stay with the PAC. If we don't get invited by the PAC then the ACC would be the next place albeit have to deal with AACUSA for another 5 years.

[SoCal_Pony]

Agreed 11, i can see all this happening

If the PAC goes 12, I think our biggest competition is UNLV

And regardless of what punitive punishment they mete out, the Bruins are gone.

As for SMU, even with a potentially larger break fee, i hope we are prepared to exit the AAC ASAP

[crazy horse]

Just saw this reported today 18th on Twitter.

From Twitter: Breaking: Amazon plans to make a large move into the live sports market.

AMZN seeks to add the most valuable American football commodity currently available to its TV programming by offering the Pac12 over $70M per school per year starting in 2024. The deal would require a GOR.

https://twitter.com/Pac12onPrime/status ... 7518857221

[SMU_Alum11]

Just saw this reported today 18th on Twitter.

From Twitter: Breaking: Amazon plans to make a large move into the live sports market.

AMZN seeks to add the most valuable American football commodity currently available to its TV programming by offering the Pac12 over $70M per school per year starting in 2024. The deal would require a GOR.

https://twitter.com/Pac12onPrime/status ... 7518857221

Not a verified account.

[Rla1022]

In musks world verification means nothing.

[JasonB]

Go look at how much Apple paid for MLS, and how much Amazon offered for one Big 10 game. And look at how much it costs to produce a high end TV series. I'll say it again - the PAC 12 media package is going to be much bigger than the Big 12 package because of the streaming entities being able to bid for the rights.

[SMU_Alum11]

In musks world verification means nothing.

Didn't mean anything before. There were bots that were verified. At least the subscription model will remove the fake accounts.

[crazy horse]

I've been told its a parody account, so who knows. Amazon wanting to get into college sports seems to make a whole lot of sense.

[JasonB]

I've been told its a parody account, so who knows. Amazon wanting to get into college sports seems to make a whole lot of sense.

We know that Amazon is bidding for the rights. They may have exaggerated the numbers a little, but they are trying to be a big part of the equation.

[SMU_Alum11]

Amazon will pay more than the Big 12 but not anywhere close. I would assume 35 million a school which is still a slightly over the big 12. They might bump it up more if they get the ACC alliance thing signed to do 2 crossover games so they can get their east coast coverage they so desire. Maybe that gets them to around 45 million.

I feel less confident about our chance each week. I don't think anyone is moving in front of us but the reporting has died out a lot more. With the vote delay and such, they might just just add SDSU and make the alliance and be done with it.