PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

[Nedward]

You need to immediately stop being crazy and making sense, Crazy Horse. There's no room on this board for this type discourse.

[MustangStealth]

It’s hard to get excited over this. The moment we join the PAC-12 it’ll dismantle much like the Big East did.

[Topper]

The Big 12 is an academic cesspool. I don't know if we get in the PAC, but if we do, we will have partners who will consider their scholastic reputations when they csst votes on conference policies.

[Water Pony]

John Wilner makes a strong case for SMU as an expansion candidate. As with the future of streaming on a platform such as Amazon, he points out that such streaming as well as SMU should be viewed on what each scenario means long term, not currently. I agree.

Jon Wilner By Jon Wilner
Bay Area News Group

Question to Jon Wilner:

I’m trying to wrap my head around SMU joining the Pac-12. I get San Diego State in terms of the Southern California footprint, and the Aztecs have been competitive in football and basketball. But SMU, overall, not so much — and they have a sliver of the Dallas market. Can you talk me down on this? — @Cargoman0363

That sentiment is completely understandable and, all things being equal, the Mustangs would not have been the Hotline’s first choice for Pac-12 expansion. (Houston was atop our list.)

But the conference must navigate the landscape as it exists, and the Mustangs, in several respects, are the best available option for growing the footprint.

In fact, we view adding SMU as a member in similar fashion to adding Amazon as a media partner: Neither entity can be judged on its merits as of today; both must be evaluated for what they could be in the future.

Pac-12 expansion process moving forward with SMU, San Diego State as top targets

The Pac-12’s next media contract cycle begins in the summer of 2024 and, depending on the length of the deal, should last until the end of the decade or early in the 2030s.

Let’s envision a seven-year deal, because odd numbers create easy midpoints. The 2027 football season would be halfway through the agreement (three years down, three remaining).

The Pac-12 isn’t assessing the viability of Amazon as a means of content distribution based on Prime Video’s market position today. It’s evaluating Amazon for what that partnership would provide midway through the next cycle.

Will streaming be more widely acceptable in the sports media realm in 2027-28 than it is now?

Would technology evolve to the point that viewers did not need to close the app in order to channel surf?

Our advice is to assess SMU football the same way: Will the Mustangs have a stronger football brand late in the decade than they do now?

Would an affiliation with the Pac-12 lead to improved recruiting, higher community interest, greater resources and more competitive success, to the point that the Mustangs gain traction in the massive Dallas market?

(Don’t be misled by the Big 12’s lack of interest in SMU during its 2021 expansion phase. That was rooted in resistance on the part of Baylor and TCU, in particular.)

And to be clear: We don’t know whether a few years in the Pac-12 would elevate SMU to a level that’s not currently visible, just like we don’t know if Prime Video will become a mainstream viewing platform (for sports) by the midpoint of the next media contract cycle.

But that’s the calculation to consider for both issues.

[SMUstang]

What's wrong with what Crazy Horse said? Are you an SMU fan or a Big 12 fan?

You need to immediately stop being crazy and making sense, Crazy Horse. There's no room on this board for this type discourse.

[ponyboy]

He agrees with Crazy Horse.

[EastStang]

After the breakup of the SWC, WAC, CUSA, Big East, and now AAC, I know how every Mustang fan feels. When the next shift comes I suspect pretty much all of the Big XII, most of PAC 12, and most of ACC will be on the outside looking in. Imagine the PAC 12 minus Oregon and maybe Washington. All of the Big XII, the ACC minus FSU, U, and Clemson. You might even have a few exiles from B1G like MD, Rutgers and Northwestern. So we won’t be alone.

[Nedward]

Thank you Ponyboy.

[mtrout]

I want to go into a state of stasis, to be woken up only when we're P5.

[Nedward]

Just go into a Jedi healing trance. That's what I do.

[crazy horse]

Thanks for the kind words. And I understood Nedward's comment.

Some more ammunition. In your dealings on social media, message boards, and with influencers, we need to counter with FACTS. The narrative is we suck, we always have sucked, and we always will. We all know that is not 100% true - and we know the reasons why someone might PERCEIVE that is the truth. Now we are mostly dealing with folks who know VERY little of our history. So with that in mind.

1. DFW is estimated to have 10 MILLION residents by 2030. That is a huge opportunity and no way TCU, TX, or OU or anybody by themselves will "own" the market. Many new residents are coming from California - likely PAC 12 fans. SMU is establishing itself as Dallas' team, the seeds being planted recently, the growth is happening as we speak. Having the P5 label, and competing against brand names - and winning - will hopefully draw OUR students and alums, as well as develop a following in Dallas. Nobody who lives in Dallas travels to Ft Worth for entertainment. Discounting trips to the home of my ex in Arlington and SMU games in FW, I can literally count on one hand the trips west of 360 for any entertainment. One was a convention, another was a visit with relatives to the Kimball, and the last was a concert. Its just not that convenient. TCU/Big 12 is nuts if they think they deliver any part of the Dallas in DFW. They are a slightly bigger blip than all the rest of the SWC schools. AND they are fading, because they rarely play here.

We know why TCU and to a lesser degree BU and TT don't want us. I think its shortsighted, but what the heck. Not every hot woman wants to date me either. Being P5 is the goal. If that means playing in the PAC - so be it. TCU went West and dominated the MWC - basically padded their resume for 7 years with wins over those hapless fools. SMU is positioning itself for a similar run, which I do believe is possible. Which brings me to the next point.

#2 SMU all time record against the proposed PAC 11 schools - 7-6. In the last 5 years, SMU has more wins (37) than Arizona (15), ASU (28), Colorado (19), UW (36), WS (32), OS (26), Stanford (23), and California (25). Only Oregon (45), Utah (43), SDSU (40) had more. If you remember we had initial success in the WAC 16 with SWC recruits - and it looked like we may have turned the corner. We won 11 games in those two years, 9-7 in conference. Then the conf split, we fired Rossley and hired Cavan. And we went from a decent team in an average conf, to a very bad team, in a conf of rejects. The PAC obviously top to bottom is better than the WAC 16. But we are also a very different team today than we were then - and getting better. Being able to sell P5 status, and some sexy road trips, can only improve recruiting, and also put more butts in the seats!

#3 I view TCU as a trailblazer, They split from the privates, made better conference choices, hired a good coach, invested, and built the program to the point that they had to be considered when the opportunity came along. I see SMU in a similar trajectory. TCU has benefitted from now 11 years of BCS/P5 $$$ and all the associated benefits of the Big Boy League. With SMU already well established with facilities, financially, and even close competitively, what would 3 or 5 or 7 years of big boy football do for SMU?

It took Baylor 15 years to get above .500 in the Big 12. TCU, in a slightly watered down conference did this in their 3rd year. I think SMU can be a contender immediately, with the way we have been recruiting and the talent arriving on the Hilltop.

#4 Another FYI - Both the 2021 game in FW, and 2022 game in Dallas between TCU and SMU were SRO crowds. It was easily for both teams, the best attendance of the year. For all the disinformation floating around, and outright lies, I found that quite interesting.

This has gone long. I'm just excited that we just have a chance at P5 - and ready for it to happen!

[ponyboy]

And in the past five years, we’ve spent a good number of weeks ranked.

[Water Pony]

Today, the PAC-12 issued a statement:

As Expansion Rumors Swirl, Pac-12 Board Releases Statement
Story by Ross Dellenger • 1h ago
Sports Illustrated

It comes as the league’s new TV deal nears and with the Big 12 eyeing multiple of its programs.

The Pac-12 expects to strike a new media rights deal in the “very near future” and remains “united” to one another, the presidents of the 10 remaining members announced in a joint statement on Monday.

The statement, clearly meant to show strength at an unstable time, comes as the conference’s television deal and league makeup hangs in doubt. The Pac-12, already losing UCLA and USC to the Big Ten starting in 2024, is entering its fifth month of negotiations for a new TV deal without a resolution, and its members continue to be a target of an aggressive Big 12 conference that is seriously exploring expansion.

“The 10 Pac-12 universities look forward to consummating successful media rights deal(s) in the very near future,” the statement says. “Based upon positive conversations with multiple potential media rights partners over the past weeks, we remain highly confident in our future growth and success as a conference and united in our commitment to one another.”

[Comet]

Today, the PAC-12 issued a statement:

As Expansion Rumors Swirl, Pac-12 Board Releases Statement
Story by Ross Dellenger • 1h ago
Sports Illustrated

It comes as the league’s new TV deal nears and with the Big 12 eyeing multiple of its programs.

The Pac-12 expects to strike a new media rights deal in the “very near future” and remains “united” to one another, the presidents of the 10 remaining members announced in a joint statement on Monday.

The statement, clearly meant to show strength at an unstable time, comes as the conference’s television deal and league makeup hangs in doubt. The Pac-12, already losing UCLA and USC to the Big Ten starting in 2024, is entering its fifth month of negotiations for a new TV deal without a resolution, and its members continue to be a target of an aggressive Big 12 conference that is seriously exploring expansion.

“The 10 Pac-12 universities look forward to consummating successful media rights deal(s) in the very near future,” the statement says. “Based upon positive conversations with multiple potential media rights partners over the past weeks, we remain highly confident in our future growth and success as a conference and united in our commitment to one another.”

There you go guys, nothing to see here. We are in the clear.

But seriously, there's a lot of obstacles in the way for many of the PAC schools to jump elsewhere. Moving to the B12 might not come with a media deal all that much larger than what the PAC will get, all while having to incur the extra costs of traveling to places like Ohio, West Virginia, and Florida for olympic sports and severing ties to local rivalries. Moving to the B1G might only be possible for a few teams such as Stanford, Washington or Oregon. Again, B1G tv media deal has to adjust for something like this and the B1G can also have its pick from the B12 (Kansas) and the ACC once those GoR issues end in 2030. All of that to say, these obstacles tell me that even if some schools leave the PAC it 1) won't really be any time soon, 2) won't entail a large amount of schools, and 3) would still be an infinitely better home to land in than staying in essentially the new CUSA that is the AAC without Houston, UCF, Cincinatti, Louisville, UConn.

[Comet]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFJ9gbln57A

Brett McMurphy saying a deal could be announced in the next two weeks.