PAC12 Scenario = Expansion

[Water Pony]

In the category of 'not going to happen' and emphasizing academic quality, I would be thrilled if Rice, SMU, and Tulane were grouped together in the PAC 12. It would place a premium on the role of student-athletes and the mission of universities, e.g., Cal, Stanford, UW. Nice peer group.

Naive, but I can dream!

[Topper]

In the category of 'not going to happen' and emphasizing academic quality, I would be thrilled if Rice, SMU, and Tulane were grouped together in the PAC 12. It would place a premium on the role of student-athletes and the mission of universities, e.g., Cal, Stanford, UW. Nice peer group.

Naive, but I can dream!

Unfortunately TCU has been the recent role model. They committed themselves to successful big time sports which has resulted in increased enrollment applications and they are passing us in total endowment. Their incoming student SATs are significantly below ours, but as their application pool grows so can their selectivity. Money is the name of the game. We tried to tell Pye that athletic success is important to the alums but he sat on his hands while TCU took advantage of our situation. Their rise was pretty much converse to our fall. The question for them and Baylor is whether the Big 12 can cobble together an attractive TV deal absent UT and OU. I doubt it.

[ponyboy]

Here’s the word from up here in Idaho:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb ... ar-AAZxqlq

[Dukie]

In the category of 'not going to happen' and emphasizing academic quality, I would be thrilled if Rice, SMU, and Tulane were grouped together in the PAC 12. It would place a premium on the role of student-athletes and the mission of universities, e.g., Cal, Stanford, UW. Nice peer group.

Naive, but I can dream!

Unfortunately TCU has been the recent role model. They committed themselves to successful big time sports which has resulted in increased enrollment applications and they are passing us in total endowment. Their incoming student SATs are significantly below ours, but as their application pool grows so can their selectivity. Money is the name of the game. We tried to tell Pye that athletic success is important to the alums but he sat on his hands while TCU took advantage of our situation. Their rise was pretty much converse to our fall. The question for them and Baylor is whether the Big 12 can cobble together an attractive TV deal absent UT and OU. I doubt it.

And TCU would cut SMU’s throat to get into a better situation. SMU needs to think similarly, rather than hoping to bring buddies along.

[peruna81]

In the category of 'not going to happen' and emphasizing academic quality, I would be thrilled if Rice, SMU, and Tulane were grouped together in the PAC 12. It would place a premium on the role of student-athletes and the mission of universities, e.g., Cal, Stanford, UW. Nice peer group.

Naive, but I can dream!

Unfortunately TCU has been the recent role model. They committed themselves to successful big time sports which has resulted in increased enrollment applications and they are passing us in total endowment. Their incoming student SATs are significantly below ours, but as their application pool grows so can their selectivity. Money is the name of the game. We tried to tell Pye that athletic success is important to the alums but he sat on his hands while TCU took advantage of our situation. Their rise was pretty much converse to our fall. The question for them and Baylor is whether the Big 12 can cobble together an attractive TV deal absent UT and OU. I doubt it.

And TCU would cut SMU’s throat to get into a better situation. SMU needs to think similarly, rather than hoping to bring buddies along.

THIS^^^RIGHT^^^HERE^^^

SMU is its own "best friend"... IIRC, our "friends" from the 'ol SWC days were quick to give the thumbs down to us and Big 12 addition.

I don't for a minute think that we are on the PAC 12 "must have" list, and I am convinced with the volatile nature of these recent conference moves that TCU/Baylor/Tech/UH et al would jump in a flat minute at a new and more profitable and secure venue.

This season looms large...beat the mess out of TCU and Maryland, bring back baseball, track and softball, and THEN we will be an attractive add to a bigger conference.

[stlpony]

Setting up a baseball, softball, and track programs makes absolutely no sense until we have line-of-sight into a specific conference that makes that a pre-condition to being admitted. There is only so much dry powder and we need to put it towards what that conference values most. Even Stanford talked about dropping some non-revenue generating sports due to funding. Boise State eliminated their baseball program due to funding. Also, my bet is that the specific feedback the Big 12 provided both Boise State and Memphis was to dramatically improve their facilities and they would be very well positioned as part of the Big 12's "phase II" expansion. I don't think it is a coincidence that both of those schools announced large facility initiatives over the last few months. And, hell would freeze over before TCU, Baylor, etc. would admit SMU...that conference is not our path forward. Also, I think B12 is the only hope for Memphis & Boise State and it's likely they get an invitation in a couple of years if the B12 cannot get any P12 schools to defect.

For ACC to work, SMU would have to be paired with West Virginia. WVU would accept an ACC invitation as it makes everything easier for them.

Last, I think Pac-12 makes a very, very hard push to get Houston (no exit fees) and potentially BYU (more complicated, but again, no exit fees). These schools are essentially free agents for the next year. SDSU makes a ton of sense (new $310M stadium, good locale, good athletics, not elite but good education), but they will still happily accept a P12 invitation a year or two from now. TCU/Baylor pairs DFW with Houston but are hamstrung with exit fees. SMU is next in line for DFW. There is a path forward, but the administration needs to be prepared when an opportunity presents itself. Between Pac-12 and ACC, I would choose Pac-12...I would be ecstatic with ACC too.

[SMUvet]

Problem is the PAC 12's viewership and attendance are awful. They also play games way too late in the day. I worry that people out west don't care about football and people east care but don't want to stay up late. Seems like the Pac should merge with the Big 12.

[EastStang]

It all comes down to what the networks want. If they want the PAC to have a central time zone option, they'll call us or two to four Big XII teams. Not sure those teams would go. If they did, that might open a spot for us in the Big XII. Or the networks might try and push Oregon and Washington on the Big Ten and then push the rest of the PAC 12 and Big XII to merge which would freeze us out, again. It also comes down to the hottest chick, Notre Dame. If they stay independent, then anything can happen.

[SoCal_Pony]

Here’s how i see it

Once the ACC dust settles, B10 & SEC both move to 20 schools, additions will most likely be UW, Oregon, Stanford & ND in the B10 / Clemson, Fl St, Miami +1 for SEC.

The B12 will mirror this and also get to 20 schools. The 4 corners of the PAC + N Carolina St, VA Tech plus whomever doesn’t get a P2 bid…N Carolina, Virginia + maybe GA Tech, maybe Pitt.

There will be a 4th nationwide conference of misfit toys.

I don’t see any school leaving the B12 under this scenario, simply too much uncertainty.

[Red Dragon Coog]

You guys need to be realistic.


1. Nobody is leaving the Big 12 for the Pac-12. Nobody has $100 million+ and the Big 12 is going to have the better media deal. There's a reason why Pac-12 schools are reaching out to The Big 12 and not the other way around.

2. Big 12 commissioner literally said yesterday that they don't want to add any dead weight. So there won't be a merger. No need to bring bottom feeders like Washington State or Oregon State into the Big 12.

3. The ONLY way SMU is included going forward, is if the four corner schools go to the Big 12 and the depleted Pac-12 wants to be in Texas bad enough

4. Even when SMU is good, the football games don't sell out. There's a reason why June Jones, Chad Morris and Sonny Dykes left. All of them have produced decent teams and still couldn't get Dallas to embrace them. P5 conferences look at that kind of stuff.


The most realistic option for SMU is to simply dominate the AAC and try to take the Access Bowl.

[SMUvet]

UH doesnt sell out their games either and is not really embraced by the people of Houston. They are plagued by the same problems due to different root causes. I think SMU can still be desirable using Houston as a model. The one difference is that Houston is seen as more connected due to their public status and has more potential due to enrollment size. SMU doesn't have either of these.

[Red Dragon Coog]

UH doesnt sell out their games either and is not really embraced by the people of Houston. They are plagued by the same problems due to different root causes. I think SMU can still be desirable using Houston as a model. The one difference is that Houston is seen as more connected due to their public status and has more potential due to enrollment size. SMU doesn't have either of these.

Houston is a bandwagon city, when UH is good, it becomes the city team. 2011, 2015 and 2016 are prime examples of that.

Houston vs SMU in 2011 with College Gameday

Houston vs Memphis 2015

Houston vs Oklahoma 2016
Houston vs Louisville 2016

All of those outside of 2011 (due to the old stadium only holding 32k) games drew 40k+, something that is unheard of for SMU even during the Pony Excess days. TV ratings also showcase UH games at the top of the ratings when the team is good and playing against P5 schools. This history and future numbers were ran several times before the Big 12 made their selections

If any other G5 Texas school had a higher ceiling than UH such as SMU, Texas State or UTSA for example, then they would have been chosen instead.

[SMUvet]

I agree on the other schools/SMU not being chosen. I also agree on attendance by % for games those years...strong showing. But 2019/2021 doesn't tell that same story.

And a 40k capacity stadium for a ~40k undergrad enrollment tells a different story conviction-wise. Cinci and UH are both good programs with more upside/further ahead than SMU. But their undergrad enrollment and stadium capacities at near parity tell us the fan base isnt really that strong and their t-shirt fan strength even lower. Both higher than SMU albeit. But the ability to capture the hearts and minds of the casual fan to buy t-shirts and attend games is important.

[Topper]

It probably doesn't matter but we need to keep reminding the public that according to Prepscholar our average SAT score for an SMU enrollee is 1390 compared to 1250 for TCU. According to their numbers we have bypassed UT: 1355. Granted, this doesn't put butts in the seats but at least our kids who bother to show up are smarter than their kids.

[SMUvet]

You can see the conviction to build based on available seats (students). If you have a large enrollment and a small stadium you don't have the conviction or ability to go bigger. It is unsurprising to see the grouping at the bottom of this table and that they are getting picked last for the team.