Dukie wrote:ponyboy wrote:Posted this morning.
If the Pac-12 schools can stay together — they’ve made that pledge to one another, whatever that’s worth these days — Kliavkoff has the authority to move forward with expansion. That could target Boise State, San Diego State or possibly SMU, if the league is looking for a Texas connection.
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/J ... nment.aspx
Of the schools mentioned in this article and the Canzano article, it is really almost impossible for me to imagine Cal and Stanford voting to add some of them based on academics (Boise State, Memphis, Houston) and some of them based on religion (Baylor). There's also a reason KU was trying to tweet last fall about how easy it is to get to Lawrence, also; DFW airport matters, and the Boises and Baylors lose some shine on travel difficulty.
I'm cautiously optimistic that the Pac-12 will stick together. ND is quiet, B1G is quiet, and ACC is hamstrung with their GOR. For us, time is a good thing and having access to the DFW market matters a lot. The B12 will make a very strong push to pull away teams once the 30-day negotiating period ends. The four corner schools will know their financial options. The Arizona schools are probably most at risk of accepting an invitation, but their #1 recruiting grounds reside in California. I just don't see a compelling enough reason for anybody to jump ship.
If, and it's a big IF, the Pac-12 steadies its ship and stays together, that conference will then try to go on the offensive. Houston, TCU, and Baylor will be top of the list (P12 will swallow their pride with Baylor for the DFW market). I think all of those schools would prefer the P12, but are they willing to pay the $50-$80M exit fee? Since Houston hasn't joined the B12 yet, I'm not sure they would have any real exit fees to the B12. If not, this is where game theory gets fun.
San Diego, Dallas, and Houston are the expansion markets with the most upside for P12. These markets have a total of 6.4M TV households and growing (P12 lost 6.8M via UCLA/USC). Although Boise State has more viewers, their upside is limited with 500K households (the Achilles heel that won't go away). When it's all said and done, I think the P12 will ideally look to mimic the B12 strategy, add 4-6 teams, and grow those markets. If they don't go big, then seriously consider staying put with the current 10 if SDSU and SMU don't matter enough. Revenue appropriations to G5 schools would make it financially palatable in exchange for perceived stability. Net/Net, I think getting multiple teams from Texas is the biggest selling point to schools as this would be a viable new market for the conference.
Am I looking through Harvard Crimson and Yale Blue colored glasses?