SMU Team compared to the conference

[JasonB]

I thought I'd give you my thoughts on where we stand, position by position this year, as we head into the last week before the season starts. I am going to reference PFF and other statistics when comparing our team to the rest of the conference.

QB - Mordecai is going to much better this season, and last year he was the leading passer in the conference in yards and TDs. INTs were a bit higher than you want, but not bad in his first year starting. I believe we will see a significant step forward from him, as good as he was last year, just with a year's experience plus a much better offensive system. On PFF, he was just barely outscored by Clayton Tune, and both are significantly ahead of Ben Bryant from Cincy, who I didn't realize was at Cincy early, transferred to Eastern Michigan and put up some pretty good numbers last year, and then transferred back. TM and CT are the best two QBs in conference, and we grade out an "A" here, with a conference-winning rating.

RB - Lavine and Siggers both got solid grades from PFF last year, while Epton and Gardner were a step lower with more of C grades. Interesting to note that Siggers has graded significantly higher on PFF than Gardner each of the last 3 seasons. Gardner grades well as a runner, but gets poor ratings in pass blocking and pass catching, although his catching has looked fine in camp and that has been something they work with the backs on pretty consistently. Wheaton, of course is the wild card here. TJ will factor in as well, but I think he will just be part of the rotation rather than being someone who can take the group to the next level. Compared to the rest of conference, Memphis, Tulane, USF, UCF, and Tulsa each have multiple backs rated ahead of our group, while Houston and Cincy each have one back (although McCaskill did his ACL in the spring and won't be back this year I don't think). Even though we actually grade out ok, we are a "C" because we have an average group in conference unless Camar shows big or Gardner takes a huge step forward. That said, I would put Cincy and Houston in the C category as well. UCF is the only one of the "big 4" with a top level backfield coming back.

WR - We all know we are loaded here. Rice, Bailey, and Kerley are already looked at as NFL prospects, and Dixon, Knox, and Daniels are going to join the list this year or next. Dell and Weaver (Houston and USF) grade out as the highest rated receivers, and then Rice and Bailey are next. Rice is going to take a huge jump this year. SMU, Cincy, and UCF are the only schools with multiple players of large numbers of snaps who have ratings over 70. The improvements I have seen from Kerley, Dixon, and Goffney in camp lead me to believe they will each climb in the ratings above the "C" level they were at last season. Corrales and Knox will both be effective as well, and Knox has shown significant improvement during camp in terms of running routes. The group gets an A, and it will be the best set in the league.

TE - We all know that we don't return much. Lots of injuries. Redding seems to be pushing for a spot and has shown well in Fall, but he got all of 14 snaps last year. Harris played the most of anyone returning last year, and graded out adequate at receiver and pass blocking, but terrible at run blocking. Allen is new and looks okay. Maryland is new, and he is an NFL player. Overall, I think the group is going to be okay in the receiving game, with Maryland providing a downfield option. But it is going to hurt us in the running game. The good news is that nobody in conference really has a lot at TE. Cincy has the best group in conference, but they aren't playmakers, they are better in as blockers. Before the fall, I would have said this is a disaster, we are probably worst in conference. But looking at what other teams have coming back, I think Maryland is really one of the only downfield threats in the league at TE, and because of that, I think we are average, and I would give us a C.

C - This is Hickman or Thomas. Hickman is actually the 7th highest rated returning center in conference, he graded out terribly in the passing game and average as a run blocker. He is much improved in his pass blocking from camp, and boosting up to average there (around a 65 rating), would move him to 5th. Tulane and UCF have excellent returning centers, Memphis and Tulsa have above average, and then USF and Cincy has average players returning. Houston graduated theirs, which is something to note, because they don't have anyone with history here. So, worst case, we have Hickman at about 5th best in conference, above average in conference even though he would be average from PFF. However, I have to say that if JT is playing here, which is the bet at this point, he looks fantastic in camp. Moving great and absolutely exploding off the line, and is a pro prospect at the position. Given the upside of JT and the rating of Hickman compared to the rest of conference, I would rate us a B.

G - Bissinger and Osborne. For Bissinger, I was surprised to see that he ranks behind Osborne on PFF, and that despite his enormous strength, he actually grades out better as a pass blocker than a run blocker. He is the 17th best blocker in conference, which given that there are 22 starting guards isn't that great. He grades out a lot lower than Howerton did, so this is a significant downturn. That said, his grades are against the ACC, not the AAC, so he would bump up a bit compared to everyone else. He should get an average grade in this conference. Osborne was 12th in conference, so a little better. However, Osborne looks fantastic in camp. Great athleticism, and shows more power off the line than the past. I believe he will be significantly better than he was last season. UCF, Houston, and Cincy all return 2 experienced players at guard, but none of them are at the top of the league, they are all kind of average. I believe that Bissinger will end up grading out higher in this conference, at about the level of those players, while Osborne will take a big step forward and be the best guard of the top 4 contending teams. Because of the projected improvements, I am giving us a B here.

T - Bryant and Condon. Bryant was actually rated the 9th best tackle in the league last season, with a decent rating on PFF, grading out as an excellent pass blocker and a little below average in the running game. Bryant has great size and mobility, he has looked really good to me in camp, and I think he is ready to take a significant step forward. Condon only had 51 snaps, and graded out very average, with a good pass blocking score and poor run blocking, but hey, it was the SEC. I would expect that rating to go up significantly against a lower competition level. From what I have seen in camp, he is very fluid, and I would expect him to continue to have strong grades in pass blocking but improve his run blocking a bit. Looking at the competition, Houston returns two tackles, Paul who got excellent grades and Robinson who grades just below Bryant. Cincy returns one tackle who graded out about the same as Bryant, but their other tackle graduated. UCF returns both tackles, one who graded very well, and the other who graded in the "okay" range. Last year, with Bryant, Ali, and Thomas on the edge, SMU was okay, but Thomas struggled with injuries all year and wasn't really himself. This year, I do think Bryant has shown in camp that he has taken a step forward, and I think he will be in that top group with the Houston and UCF players, with the Cincy best tackle a little behind. I think Condon will play a little better than the UCF second tackle, but probably be a little behind Houston's second tackle. In short, I think Houston has the best tackles in the league, but I think we are second, followed by UCF and then Cincy. I'll give us a B.

Overall OL rating - I think we get a B on the OL overall, at least with our starters, which is a better position than I thought we would be in coming into Camp. The next level players - Perdue, Sparks, Ervin - There is a drop off, because they are all C level players at best right now. But that top 6 gets a B.

Overall offense rating - top of conference at QB and WR, above average at OL, and then average at RB and TE, I think at worst this is a top 4 offense in the league, but if we get the upside at TE and RB and if we stay healthy on the OL, we are the best offense in the league. Houston is going to be average at RB, has one top end WR and the rest aren't as good as us, and they are missing their center. Cincy is missing a tackle, and aren't as good at QB or WR. The one to keep your eye on is UCF - they are loaded across the board except at QB. If they get good QB play, they could be the best in conference.

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DE - This is tough. We have a bunch of new guys who haven't played much - Jones, Aho, Smith, Sneed, and Abiara all have shown well in camp - and have no PFF rating. Then you have the guys who did play - Paul, Coxe, and Wiley - who all got very good ratings, but haven't played much in camp. This was an area to watch, in my opinion, coming into camp, because the ability to apply pressure makes a huge difference in the defense. We needed a difference maker. I think we have a lot of good options here that are going to really wear teams out. I would rate us a B. Houston has three very highly rated players returning here, they are the top group in the league. Cincy returns three players, but they didn't grade as high as you would think with the great defense they had last season, which tells you how great that secondary was. UCF has one good, and one above average. I think our group is second behind Houston, but ahead of Cincy and UCF.

DT - Chatman and Levelston are two of the top 3 players in the league. Chatman last year graded out at an 88, which is insane, and he actually looks better in camp. Levelston graded out as a 78, which is also incredible, and he looks good as well. Our depth is improved because of the JUCO transfer and Wright. We are loaded, and we get an A. Houston is next with two good players returning. UCF has one good and then one above average. Cincy graduated everyone, and are the weakest of the bunch. But it is Cincy.

LB - Phillips actually ranks as the 4th best returning LB in the league, and graded out very well. Reid is the first backup, and he graded out above average. Slade got here right before the season started, and didn't grade out that well. At Oregon, he graded out very average at around 65 every year. I'd expect to see him improve back to that level this year, if not a little more, with an improvement in run defense. This is certainly one of the better groups in the league. Cincy tops everything with 4 LBs who saw significant snaps turning around a 70+ rating. Houston is probably next, with two returning starters who graded out over 75. This is not a position of strength for UCF. I would grade SMU a B, and put us 3rd in the top 4.

CB - Yes, the scheme was a huge problem. But Roberts is the only DB we have that got an average rating last year. Westfall only got 81 snaps, but was next, then Crossley only got a 60, and then Rogers and Johnson were terrible. However, Johnson graded out very high, at a B level, the previous two seasons. It shows how horrible the scheme was. I would expect all of these guys to grade out average or better this season. Johnson looks much better in Camp, Westfall and Roberts have shown what they are, Crossley looks good, Rogers looks improved, and Hall looks good as a transfer. In conference, there are only 9 players returning who show out as above average (67 or better). UCF has two great corners, and Houston has two above average corners. Cincy graduated a lot, but they are Cincy, so you have to assume they have players waiting. I'd give us a C because I anticipate improvement, but I think we are still the worst of the 4.

Safety - Another scheme disaster last year. Massey was our best safety... with a 54. Adimora and NWO were in the 40s, while Cromartie, who played the most snaps of any of them, was a 39, the worst in the league. Massey looked fantastic at safety both in the spring and fall before his ankle injury. The lightbulb came on for him. He will be one of the best players in the league. NWO looks much better, especially in coverage, and Adimora will provide depth with Roberson and the frosh Moses. This group I think we can only raise to a C because they need to show it, but there is upside to get significantly better than that. UCF has two awesome safeties, best group in the league. Houston has one good, and one meh, while Cincy only brings back one safety. We are behind all 4 of them, but there is potential here for significant improvement.

Defense - I think SMU and Houston have the best DL in the league, a step ahead of UCF and Cincy. At LB, Houston and Cincy have great units. Ours is still one of the best in the league, but a step below theirs. For the front 7, I think there is a clear pecking order of Houston, SMU, Cincy, UCF. The backend of the difference is the real problem. UCF has one of the best secondaries in the country. Houston is next, and then Cincy and SMU. The big thing that stands out is that Houston is bringing back a really good defense across the board. As good as we are up front, I think UCF has a better overall defense because they are great in the secondary, and the drop off between our DL and theirs isn't as big. Cincy has more proven pieces than we do, so I would rank us 4th. But still the 4th best defense in conference, which is a massive improvement over last year. And we have upside if the scheme and experience help our secondary improve.

Overall - I think you can see why Houston is picked to win the conference. They have a fantastic defense coming back. They have a good QB and a top WR. Their only weakness is really going to be running the ball, with a couple of average guards, a new center, and their stud RB is out. But RB is the easiest position to get "good enough" players. Cincy is sure to take a step back this year on both sides of the ball. They should be ok at QB, but it won't be at the Ridder level, they are missing a number 1 WR, and the defense lost a lot in the secondary. I think we are actually better than Cincy. UCF is the difficult one to figure out. They have the great secondary that Cincy had last year. They could be very good defensively. They have good pieces on offense. But can they get good QB play? It is almost an either-or situation for them - either they don't have a QB and they finish 4th, or they find one, and they are battling for the top of the conference with Houston. They just named Plumlee a starter, and I don't think he is a good enough QB to keep up with the elite offenses. So I'll pick them 4th.

I think SMU goes 9-3, with losses @Maryland, and then home against Houston, who might just be *that* team this season, and then another random conference loss. I just don't think UCF or Cincy can score enough to keep up with us, so I think we probably win both of those games. The challenge is that as much as people make fun of the Houston schedule, they haven't looked at UCF - who play both SMU and Cincy at home. So I think the conference championship game is UCF versus Houston. But who knows... if the OL stays healthy, Massey stays healthy, and Johnson really does bounce back, we have a chance to win every single game this season.

[DC-Pony]

Great analysis, as always, Jason. Thank you for posting.

I’m fascinated to see how our defensive secondary does this year. I agree about the questionable scheme last year. Additionally, the “mechanics” of the corners - often turning away from the ball when then would maneuver - raised so many questions about our defensive coaching last year. This year will be really telling about what talent we actually have back there.

A wild card that we can’t constructively speculate about (in addition to health), are the newcomers from high school and JUCO that each team will have. There are always a handful of eyebrow-raising performers in every conference. Hopefully we have one or two. Certainly we have a stable of transfers that could really contribute, many of whom you call out above.

I agree with your assessment…it’s not crazy the think we have a chance in every game.

[Terry Webster]

As of yesterday Cincy still hasn't named a starting qb.

[ALEX LIFESON]

Jason, you had a lot of 4's in there.....and 4th, is where most experts have us picked to finish in the AAC.

[PNW_Stang]

Thanks! Best write up I’ve read about our team this year.

[JasonB]

Jason, you had a lot of 4's in there.....and 4th, is where most experts have us picked to finish in the AAC.

QB RB WR TE C G T DE DT LB CB S
SMU: 1 2 1 4 2 1 2 2 1 3 4 4 = 27
Hou: 1 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 = 23
Cin: 3 2 4 1 3 2 3 3 4 1 3 3 = 32
UCF: 4 1 3 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 1 1 = 29

So Hou-SMU-UCF-Cincy is how I think things shake out (except UCF has that easy schedule, which may cost SMU second place). That said, you can see where if our Safety and CB play step up, we will be right there with Houston.