Latest on PAC12 Expansion

[DallasMustang11]

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-p ... -scenarios

Latest from PAC12 insider John Canzano. Gives SMU being included in expansion 4 to 1 odds. Seems like good news to me.

[ponyboy]

So a 20% chance. Would love it, including the ACC crossover.

[Water Pony]

We are #2 with a 25% chance and SDSU at 50%. The interesting point is a post Labor Day likelihood for updates.
Also, this morning it is being reported that the BigXII is opening up its media rights early, as did the PAC12. Only the ACC has been quiet.

[shadowman]

Good news for SMU definitely. This guy understands the PAC12 and is not relying on any inside sources, he is just logically going through the thought process the way the PAC12 is.

I have a feeling that SDSU and SMU will get an invite here very soon.

[SoCal_Pony]

I’ve been following this guy and other PAC gurus and the 20% number seems very low, even for Canzano.

It’s almost universally agreed the PAC should expand, the debate being 2 or 4 schools. There are actually more discussions about adding 6 schools than staying static at 10.

In all these scenarios SD St is included due to its location. So i would say their odds are closer to 80%.

SMU is usually the 2nd choice, so i think their odds are nearer 50%.

What is interesting is the B12 is entering early discussions with Fox / ESPN about its next TV deal. If significantly higher than PAC, the 4 corners will bolt. If similar, it kinda stabilizes the PAC, making it much more desirable for SMU. In that scenario, could the PAC potentially pursue SD St, SMU, Houston and x*

x* = BYU, UNLV, Fresno St or Boise St

Interesting stuff that IMO won’t be settled for awhile.

[Water Pony]

In this last scenario, what would be Utah's interest in pursuing BYU, who along with Houston, recently committed to BigXII?

If either school can be picked off, Houston would be a stronger match when combined with us, thus giving the PAC12 two Texas schools in the biggest markets. Having at least two Central Time Zone partners would be a good idea. Alternatively, Utah may not like BYU sharing the SLC/UT market with them, as TCU and Baylor won't want us in the BigXII.

[SoCal_Pony]

In this last scenario, what would be Utah's interest in pursuing BYU, who along with Houston, recently committed to BigXII?

Utah’s interest?????, about the same as A&M’s wanting the Horns.

If the PAC wants to regain the momentum vs B12 for western supremacy, they should IMO at least explore BYU & Coogs.

I think the likelihood of BYU is low due to cultural reasons and past history.

Houston maybe if there are minimal B12 exit fees and if the Coog decision makers value academics far more than athletics. But i think it also is unlikely.

[Mexmustang]

I believe it really makes little difference who has the largest TV deal. Contracts are based on the current roster of teams in a conference, not some proforma as to a deal that might include new schools. Say the PAC enters a contract paying each school $30,000,000 per year and the Big 12 $35,000,000 per year. There is no basis to believe that the Big 12's payout would remain the same on a per school basis if their contract is renegotiated after adding four new schools. In fact, there is no assurance that the new schools would even move the needle on the total conference contract. Most contracts just have a clause that the conference and the network would enter into good faith negotiations, which isn't worth my pocket change.

[Water Pony]

From John Wilner Hotline, quoting ESPN:

“We regularly engage in conversation around the future with all of our partners, but to be clear, we have not opened the contractual negotiation window with the Big 12 at this time.”

[Caballo]

If this poll has any merit, there is little hope for us to be invited to the Pac-12.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pac-12-reali ... 14142.html

[NavyCrimson]

Thank God!!!

[Comet]

If this poll has any merit, there is little hope for us to be invited to the Pac-12.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pac-12-reali ... 14142.html

Well they need to remove Big 12 schools from that poll since that isn’t happening.

[fan]

If the PAC loses 4 more and the corners move to the B12 maybe the AAC picks up Washington St., Oregon St., SDSU, Boise and a couple other MWC schools? That'd honestly be on par with the nB12.

[redpony]

and in the game of musical chairs we are left standing with no chair.

[crispy_taco]

I don’t understand how you can see the current AAC plus SDSU Wazzu and Oregon st as being better than the new big 12. I know how you feel but it’s just not even close. The big 12 has said no to us several times so we are trying to convince ourselves that this girl we’re dating right now has potential when she really doesn’t at all. I know it hurts to say this, but the big 12 actually has pretty solid footing right now. Even more so than the ACC because it’s only a matter of time before Clemson FSU and Miami are absorbed by SEC. PAC 12 is quicksand like many have said, but it is certainly better than our current situation.