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W2W4 - TCU

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W2W4 - TCU

Postby JasonB » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:32 pm

Let's start on the offensive side of the ball...
- SMU has a significant advantage after playing Maryland last week, because Maryland played most of the game with a 3 man front and dared SMU to run the ball. Once they saw it was a run, they really came down hard towards the line. I think the SMU coaches learned a ton from that game. The OL actually run blocked okay for the most part. What they did a poor job of is getting the "free" OL up to the next level. Instead, they were waiting to help out a little, but the help wasn't necessary. Hickman in particular it seemed like they would have a guard waiting to help him out with the NT, but he handled him 1v1 just fine for the most part. Not getting to the second level is why you didn't see bigger gaines and instead saw a bunch of 2 yard runs. They have a ton of tape against a 3 man front now, and I think it will help them out a lot against the 3-3-5 of TCU.
- The other aspect that I hope we saw is that slow developing running plays aren't gonna work, because the ball is in front of everyone and they can crash down. I think we will run a lot of plays straight behind either guard and not try to stretch off tackle. The outside run instead will be the WR screen, which we broke for big yardage against UNT but didn't see much in the last couple of games. I bet that gets called a bit tomorrow.
- Another big point about Maryland is Rice winning 1v1 against good corners and TM not being afraid to throw the ball. The 3-3-5 is really effective, especially if you can compress the field. The idea is to throw 3 linemen out there with 3 linebackers, and to the QB in an RPO, your normal triggers tell you to go with the run. But in reality, everyone is waiting to crash the box after the handoff and limit things to a 2-3 yard gain. It was great to see TM not fall for that too much and stick with the pass against Maryland, and I would expect the same tomorrow. If I were RL, I'd install a bit of playaction and I think we will once again see a bunch of deep balls to keep the safeties honest.
- Please give me some playaction and then RJ down the seam.

Switching to the other side of the ball...
- The TCU QB is the big factor here. Was the last game a sign that he has figured everything out? I *think* the answer is "no", because if he had actually figured it out, he would have been the starter coming out of fall camp.
- I think TCU is going to try and pound the ball. The lower scoring game, less possession game favors TCU. And running the ball is the strength of the offense. If I were the TCU coaching staff, I look at the Maryland game and see how Maryland ran the ball and I work to replicate that.
- Against Maryland, I thought the LBs were actually pretty poor. They didn't challenge the run physically enough. SMU also got in a situation where they were playing two FS instead of a FS and SS to protect against a really, really good Maryland WR corps. I don't think we do that in this game, and I think it is already reflected in the depth chart. I think Adimora and NWO are playing SS to help against the run, with Massey at the free, and I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Roberts play a lot at nickel instead of Crossley in order to help out against the run.

I kind of think this goes in one of two directions. First scenario: TCU has a run game that pounds the ball, and Duggan is able to play well enough to hit a couple of deep shots and convert in the red zone when things tighten up. TCU is able to eat clock, stay efficient, limit possessions and wins a 31-20 type of game. The second scenario is that Duggan can't connect, isn't efficient, TCU's offense can't convert on their drives, and SMU gets a lot of possessions. SMU is way more potent on offense and being the home team has more depth available during the game. Early stops and Duggan mistakes get the crowd into it and it gets a little out of hand. 38-17 SMU.

I am really concerned about that first scenario playing out. However, I think the odds of that are lower given the history of the TCU QB and the crazy emotions that will be present in the stadium tomorrow. 38-17, SMU. Sonny Dykes can kiss my [deleted] and I pray that someone hacks the video board tomorrow to show him frying the frogs on the skillet in the stadium.
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Re: W2W4 - TCU

Postby mtrout » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:52 pm

Also watch for Kaz trying to fight a 17 year old fraternity member.
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Re: W2W4 - TCU

Postby orguy » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:56 pm

Nice summary. Worried about our run D. Hopefully your second scenario or any
outcome that results in a W is realized tomorrow. Cannot stand tcwho.
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