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Thoughts on the TCU game

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Thoughts on the TCU game

Postby JasonB » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:05 pm

I already watched the game after being there in person, and here are some thoughts...

- First, SMU needs to fix the gameday operations issue. That was terrible. And veto morning or afternoon games before October.
- Also, TCU is good. I thought they would get yards against us, the question was whether or not they would get a good performance out of Duggan. And they did. If he plays like he has the first three games, they are a legit contender in the Big 12.
- With all the frustrations the last two weeks, keep in mind that Maryland is clearly a quality Big 10 team, and TCU is a quality Big 12 team.
- However, a saying that always sticks with me is "Good teams find a way to win, and bad teams find a way to lose." I'm concerned that we found ways to lose both of the last two weeks, and it doesn't bode well for the harder games in conference.

Offense:
- TM can be inconsistent, but he kept the team in the game. The interceptions the last two weeks are a killer. I get it that Bailey could have made a sharper cut and that Dixon fell down. But at the same time, those were both really late throws. He gives us the best chance to win, but man, that second INT was the game. We were at 28-21 with all the momentum, and TCU falls apart if you go down and score.
- In the running game, the dive, direct runs were fine - 3 or 4 yards every carry. I'm not sure why we kept trying and run the slow plays off tackle, because it plays into the 3 man front. Against this defense, you run that dive over and over, you get the LBs close to the line, and then it opens up the gap between the LB and the deep center field safety. They had the umbrella look with 3 safeties, one center fielder, and then the other two providing cover over the top on the outside. I thought we should have pounded them up the middle more, because Hickman was outstanding in the running game again. I'll also point out that another reason we struggle to run it wide is because our WR and TE just aren't blocking very well. When you compare what TCU did on some wide runs versus us, the blocking just isn't there.
- At TE, I think we need to recognize what we have. Maryland is a weapon, and we started to use him more today, which is great. 14 was back, and that is great. Outside of that, however, 81 just can't provide any separation from defenders, and he doesn't blow you away blocking either. I would almost go 4 wide all the time if 82 or 14 aren't available.

Defense:
- I mentioned before the season that one thing the defense was missing was an elite defensive end for pass rush. Well, Paul and Samuels showed up big time today. Those two need to start. Samuels really showed stuff last fall and in the spring, and then was out all fall and I didn't know if he was coming back this year. He was awesome today, and not just when he got in the backfield - he has the pure athleticism to chase the ball down and make plays everywhere. Those two on the ends are a real asset.
- Our run defense is awful right now. It isn't the line. The LBs can't fight off a block, and both the LBs and Safeties are really struggling to tackle. Having the speed back there is great, but someone has to be able to make a play. When Slade, Phillips, and Reid are running free, they all do fine. But the moment things get messy inside, they get pushed aside really easily. Slade, Reid, and Phillips all got pushed to the side way too easily on the long runs, and then the safeties missed tackles.
- I mentioned this after last week's game, but running Massey and Roberts at safety in a double free safety look is great to protect against the long pass, but it is absolutely brutal in the running game. Roberts gets blocked out of the play really easily - he was the guy who got blocked out on the 80 yard pass/run. Massey can make some special plays with his speed, but sometimes he takes bad angles and doesn't wrap up - he had opportunities to stop all three of the long plays and came up empty every time. We need to get Adimora and NWO rotating at SS, and then Massey and Roberts at FS. Not only do we need a SS to tackle, but also Massey and Roberts played the whole game and were gassed at the end. This seems like an obvious problem to me, and I am not sure why were haven't reverted back. But maybe the coaches know something that I don't.
- Our CBs weren't overmatched in this game, and play with much better technique this season. That said, where you see we aren't at an elite level is on those longer routes where the WR runs a deep in. They take forever, but Hall and Crossley today got beat on them, where the WR runs down about 15 yards and then makes a cut straight across the field. They just don't have the hips to make that play. The corners played fine today for the most part, don't get me wrong. But the hips are what separate the good corners from the elite.

Special teams:
- What a killer. We blew downing two punts, while TCU downed a punt and then had two long kick returns. We lost the "hidden yardage" aspect of the game big time. It will be interesting to see if we start using more starters on kickoff coverage.
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Re: Thoughts on the TCU game

Postby Smumba2009 » Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:25 am

So much we could unpack here regarding clean execution. With that said I was watching the OSU Wisconsin game last night and it struck me that OSU's offensive success is largely fueled by their O line. I understand their is an implied talent difference between OSU and SMU. With that said the QB and the RBs wouldn't be having the success they enjoy without the O line dominating a historically great Wisconsin D. I think this may be missed in our response as fans to our struggles the last 2 weeks.

Yes special teams matters, yes defense matters and yes the rest of the offense matters....however if our O line dominates the running lanes open up and TM has time to made his reads and set his feet.

Food for thought
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Re: Thoughts on the TCU game

Postby Topper » Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:19 am

Jason B I understand that compared to Mordecai Stone is not ready to step in. But my question for you is this: Mordecai doesn't seem to have the quickest release. I was happy to see him getting good protection, but I saw a lot of teams having success with quick release pass routes over the middle yesterday. Also, yesterday I noticed that mediocre passing QBs had a lot of success keeping the defense off balance because they were legitimate run threats (and speedy). How does Stone compare in terms of his ability to relasese quickly and run?
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Re: Thoughts on the TCU game

Postby Insane_Pony_Posse » Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:17 pm

JasonB wrote:I already watched the game after being there in person, and here are some thoughts...First, SMU needs to fix the gameday operations issue. That was terrible. And veto morning or afternoon games before October.


JasonB what were the gameday operation problems?
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Re: Thoughts on the TCU game

Postby docabel » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:12 pm

Insane_Pony_Posse wrote:
JasonB wrote:I already watched the game after being there in person, and here are some thoughts...First, SMU needs to fix the gameday operations issue. That was terrible. And veto morning or afternoon games before October.


JasonB what were the gameday operation problems?


Have to assume the long lines/waits to get into the stadium (exacerbated by the scanners not being able to scan apple wallet tickets)

And even worse was the incredibly long lines and slow service at concessions stands (again exacerbated by many running out of food, water, drinks)
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Re: Thoughts on the TCU game

Postby JasonB » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:26 pm

Topper wrote:Jason B I understand that compared to Mordecai Stone is not ready to step in. But my question for you is this: Mordecai doesn't seem to have the quickest release. I was happy to see him getting good protection, but I saw a lot of teams having success with quick release pass routes over the middle yesterday. Also, yesterday I noticed that mediocre passing QBs had a lot of success keeping the defense off balance because they were legitimate run threats (and speedy). How does Stone compare in terms of his ability to relasese quickly and run?


There are a ton of factors you have to consider here:

- This offense wants to probe deep. Some of the slower decision making time is waiting to see if the deep shot is there. That is a critical part of the offense because we want to get those safeties and LBs to back off the line and let us run the ball.
- An inherent philosophy of the RL offense is that if you force the defense to defend a larger field, it opens things up more. The inconsistency we saw over the past two years offensively was that it relied on shorter routes - WR screens, TE short over the middle. You needed a QB at a 67% completion rate, and when we got behind the chains (sack, penalty, short running play), we were in trouble. Reference Cincy. In this offense, as we can all see, your completion percentage is a lot lower, but you expand the field. We are way more productive than we have been in the past when we are behind the chains, and it can be nerve racking to watch as a fan, but it is just part of the offense.
- TM makes better decisions than Stone. Both in terms of the RPO decision as well as when to throw and not throw the ball. That 3-3-5 is a really complex defense, and difficult for any QB to read. Stone I think would have had some problems. The thing Stone does really well, is that he actually goes through progressions quicker. TM will stare down the #1 WR until he either throws the ball or the WR is not going to get open and he switches to the second option. Because of this, he never makes it back to the opposite side of the field and his third or 4th options. Stone, from what I have seen, won't stare anyone down. He bounces from 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 and then back to see if 1 broke it long and then makes a decision on where to go. The challenge is that Stone always thinks he can make the big throw. He will try and rifle the ball into tight windows. Very Farve. This is a little weird to say, but if our defense was better, it would increase the odds I would try and play Stone. But because the defense hasn't played well, it would make me hesitate. If the score was okay, I would think about giving Stone the 3rd drive of every game. It would give him legit experience and it would also give you extra time with TM on the sideline to look at how the defense is play, which can have positive impact.
- Regarding a running QB, yes, I would love to have a QB that can move. But what is most important is for my QB to make the right decisions on pass vs run, and a QB who can get the ball in the hands of my 4.4 playmakers and pick up chunks of yardage. The QB scramble is the last resort, not the first choice. The only caveat is that I think the zone read is a really effective part of the RPO, and having a QB who can actually be a running threat off tackle (reference Preston's running TD against Lamar) adds another dimension to the offense.
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Re: Thoughts on the TCU game

Postby JasonB » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:19 pm

Some further comments looking at the stats...

- We gave up 2 sacks, but only 7 pressures. That isn't a bad performance from the OL.
- Mordecai was only 4/12 for 118 1 TD, 1 INT on passes over 20 yards. Overall, he was 3/7 for 61 to the left, 6/14 for 66 to the right, and 18/26 for 245 over the middle. Probably need to come off that number 1 WR a little more quickly, and these reflect that Rice lined up on the right all game.
- As a comparison, Max was 1/3 for 19 yards and a TD on passes over 20 (I guess the 19 must round up to 20 somewhere). That is the difference between RL and Riley right there. Duggan was 2/4 for 11 yards to the left, 2/3 for 13 yards to the right, and then 18/20 for 254 over the middle. The corners aren't doing a bad job.
- Also, for Duggan, 14 of his 27 pass attempts were behind the LOS, and 4 more under 10 yards. TM was 4/6 behind the LOS. Drastic difference. Also telling that TM's worst passer rating is on the short throw, 0-9 yards. He is fantastic in the 10-20 yard route.
- In the battle between players that are going to be drafted in the first 3 rounds next year, Rice was 3/9 for 48 yards and a TD against Tomlinson, with 3 penalties drawn. Against everyone else, he was 3/4 for 26 yards.
- Upshaw is not grading out well at all, and it might be time to start pulling his time back. I suspect we will see Dixon and Corrales both have their usage trend up, while Knox becomes the primary backup for Rice.
- In the running game I think it is interesting that Gartner had more yards after contact with half the carries as Siggers. He also made two players miss, while Siggers made none. That lack of shift is why Siggers is a solid RB, but not really the stud you want to be your bell cow. The challenge is that Gardner is a much worse blocker. It will be interesting to see if that starting load starts to transition. Siggers has 50 carries for 200 yards, and has created 6 missed tackles. Gardner is 25 for 161, also with 6, so his miss rate and YPC is much higher. Siggers averages 2.3 yards after contact, while Gardener is at 4.4.
- Defensively, Paul got an outstanding grade, which isn't a surprise. Reid, Slade, Roberts, and Massey all got extremely low grades in run defense, which doesn't surprise me at all. Their ratings combined with the solid ratings of the DL for run defense confirm what I think we all saw - our LBs and S have really struggled in the run game the last two weeks.
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