W2W4 - Tulsa

[JasonB]

This is obviously a must win if we are going to have any decent run this year. Need to run the table and root against UCF.

Overall, Tulsa has had a really easy strength of schedule and haven't played all that well. All of the analytics sites rate us as a much better team.

Offensively, Tulsa has a great WR and a decent QB. The weakness of the team is their O Line, which causes their team to struggle at times. They don't block all that well against the run and give up a ton of sacks. The SMU defense is going to have the opportunity to create a lot of negative plays and get off the field. I would not be surprised at all to see SMU play very aggressive defensively and risk giving up some explosive plays just to put Tulsa in negative situations. Paul, Levelston, and Samuels should have a pretty big impact on the game. I'd love to see some third and long situations where 11 and 58 line up on the edge and make things happen.

The SMU offense is really what needs to shine in this game. Our offense is rated significantly better than theirs, while their defense is just kind of okay. They play a 3-3-5, but unlike the other teams that we have played, they don't have the team speed to be able to stop the run in that formation. In that regard, this is a perfect game to play Stone, because opportunities will be there for Wheaton, and all of the other running backs, and in the passing game if they are going to sit 8 in coverage, scrambling lanes are going to be there. It is just really important that we don't get stuck behind the chains with negative plays and penalties.

Overall, this is a game SMU should win, and honestly, if it weren't our bugaboo team and we didn't have injuries or an unknown at QB, I think we would win it pretty significantly. If we lose this game it is our own fault - turnovers and penalties.

As it stands, I'll predict a solid SMU away win, 31-21.