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W2W4 - USF

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W2W4 - USF

Postby JasonB » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:22 pm

Another game, and another offensive shootout ahead of us. USF overall is terrible. Their record is terrible, their team ratings are terrible. It isn't good. But, that said, their offense is okay, and USF keeping games closer than they probably should be (reference the Florida and Cincy games). It is important to keep in mind that despite the record, they are just behind SMU in the conference Total Team Composite rankings (there is a decent gulf, but still, they are next in line). So, to this point in the season, they have significantly underperformed the talent on the roster.

Offensively, their numbers are okay. Everyone knows they lost the starting QB, but at first glance, it almost appears to be a good thing - the new QB has thrown fewer INTs, less dangerous passes, has a higher completion percentage, and a higher yards per attempt. The difference is in the mobility. While Marsh throws a much better deep ball than Bohanan, a high percentage of pressures become sacks. In 7 games,. Bohanan ran for for 406 yards and a 7.1 carry with 3 TDs. Marsh has only 49 yards in 5 games, with a 4 yard average and 3 fumbles. The lack of a QB run threat is a big deal.

Outside of that, they have probably the best RB in the conference in Battle, and a couple of good WRs. Overall depth at WR isn't great, and they drop passes. The TE group is terrible. The OL has a couple of players that are okay, but a tackle and guard who have struggled a bit. That said, they do a terrific job in short yardage situations, and they don't give up a lot of sacks. The main reason why they fail to consistently produce is turnovers - they already have 10 fumbles and 17 turnovers on the season.

I would expect that USF is going to be able to move the ball against us. They have a good running game, and if we come out of the 4-2-5 to stop it, they can hit some deep shots. I would expect us to go into a 4-2-5 and give up the running yards and short passes a bit and wait for them to make a mistake. If they get behind the chains for any reason (negative run, a sack, or a drop), they will struggle. I think it will a little frustrating to watch because they will move the ball and eat clock. We need to stop the explosive plays in the running game. Our LB corp is going to have to play a lot better than they did against Houston.

On the other side of the ball, USF is absolutely terrible defensively. They aren't good in a single metric that I have found. They don't have a lot of depth as a team, the dline doesn't do well, their safeties are horrible. Drops, turnovers, injuries, penalties are their biggest paths to stopping us. But I would expect our offense to continue to roll in this game.

I kind of expect SMU to come out a little sluggish - a lot went into last week's game, and it is only inevitable to have a little bit of a let down. USF is going to be able to move the ball, so I expect the game to be close early. But eventually, SMU pulls away and wins 45-31.
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Re: W2W4 - USF

Postby ponyboy » Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:28 am

Ah, W2W4 = what to watch for. Great stuff.
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Re: W2W4 - USF

Postby SMU_Alum11 » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:11 pm

Look forward to a JasonB W2W4 on Tulane.

Looking at their previous games, they aren't world beaters. They have a good defense and their offense is average. I would think we could outscore them. I think when you look at our last 3 games we only had 1 turnover on downs (last game), FG and 1 punt otherwise it was all TDs.

With the weather conditions though, this seems to be more favorable to defenses so curious to see your take.
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Re: W2W4 - USF

Postby PerunaPunch » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:04 am

Shockingly accurate
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