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Thoughts on the USF game

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Thoughts on the USF game

Postby JasonB » Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:18 pm

As I suspected, we came out a little slow, USF was able to keep the game close with ball control and run clock, and then we pulled away in the second half. I had us 45-31 going in, so we actually outperformed that expectation even if we barely beat the thread.

Look, there are two ways to look at the game. We came out sloppy - 6 drops in the first half, 2 missed 4th down conversions that gave USF the ball in great field position, and a missed field goal. There were complaints that RL was over-aggressive, and that is what kept the game close and gave them opportunities to score, so we effectively gifted them a tie game at half.

The other way to look at it is that we were clearly a much better team. Even with all of the mistakes listed above, the game was ONLY tied at half, which showed how bad USF is. The aggressive calls were in line with analytics, you were trying to put them to the sword early, and aggressive calls like that just increase the total number of possessions in the game, and the higher total possessions, the more likely that the better team wins. The only real problem I had was the number of 3rd down pass routes that were short of the sticks. Outside of that, the game played out about how I expected.

I'm going to start out on the defensive side, and I want to point out some major improvements. First, less than 50% pass completion rate, a yards per attempt of only 5.7... those are really good numbers. Second, in the running game, we allowed one run of 20 yards and that was IT as far as explosive plays are concerned in that area. That is a major improvement for us, and against a really top back in Battie. All goodness.

What I don't love is the 3 man front we are starting to play a lot of. I mean, I get it, it does match our personnel a little bit better because without 92 playing, we don't really have a backup for Levelston at the 3 technique in a down 4. And Levelston and Aho and even Jones are better fits as ends in a 3 man front. Also, another player off the line allows us to collapse on the run better, which is probably why we didn't give up long runs. It covers for the lack of speed at LB. And Paul had a really good game yesterday as that standup player who was off the line. So, I understand why we are doing it. The reason I hate it is that in a down 4, Paul, Samuels, Smith, and now Abiara are absolute beasts off the edge. It was nice to see Abiara out there for a couple of plays for the first time all season - you can see he is long, has size, has a good push. Throw all the NIL at those guys, because Samuels, Abiara, and Smith are just going to be an amazing, NFL caliber set of DEs for the next 3 years. They are going to be pure hell for anyone to deal with, especially with what the conference is going to look like next year.

Still continue to be frustrated with the LB corps. Phillips was good and aggressive yesterday, and Slade had his best game of the season probably, but neither are great in coverage, and there were several plays were Reid is just holding back. On the stretch a couple of times he had the chance to cut in on the backside and take a guy down, but instead let the back continue to drift and eventually found a hole. He didn't even engage on a goalline play. It just isn't good enough from him. This is just a problem area for us right now because we don't have the level of athlete that Symons needs to run his defense, and it is going to prevent us from taking that snext step as a defense. I was glad that in the end some of the younger players got in there - Farrar, Goree, and both Burns got a few snaps. J Burns got beat on the pass for the TD when he underestimated how much space the TE had on the route, but I like his aggressiveness and athleticism. It is a step up. Goree flashed some speed. I feel gutted for Farrar - he was actually doing pretty well and then after the injury to the QB he backed off and I don't think he hit anyone the rest of the game. That needs to be an area of focus in recruiting.

At corner, starting to see some progress with Rogers. He still has problems with technique and footwork, and he got saved by some bad passes. But overall, they were only 1/5 throwing in his direction and he had a pick. Just need him to continue to develop. Westfall probably had his best game yesterday. And Hall played really well in his return to significant playing time. Some of that had to do with quality of opponent, but the group did much better and showed a little development progress.

Safety continues to be a struggle. Roberts probably had his best overall game, but struggles in pass coverage. Massey is really good in pass coverage and had the big PBU again, but his tackling is awful still. I love that he got out to the flat on the stretch run early in the second half and he blew up the play, but don't just launch a shoulder at the guy, you have to at least try and wrap up. Adimora got more playing time than previous games, but he just doesn't show up and make plays yet. The guy who I thought looked great was Moses. Really starting to fly back there. Had a nice sack, and on a running play, he aggressively came in and dove and dripped the RB up to prevent a TD run and limit to a ten yard gain. He is starting to flash a bit.

On the offensive side, Mordecai was great. They raved about him on the broadcast, especially that long TD to Kerley. But he was 19/27 with 6 drops by my count. should have been 25/27. That dude is absolutely on fire. Him being healthy makes a big difference, but I think also there are two big factors. First, he is no longer looking over his shoulder and worried about Stone. Second, when he was out, he saw Stone going through reads and trusting secondary players. TM is coming off Rice way, way, way more quickly than he did prior to sitting out. Super important development.

Another major development is Kerley. Finally healthy, and he provides a legit second option on the field. Kerley, Goffney, Maryland, Daniels, and Dixon have all popped at different points the past couple of games, and that is a significant step forward for the offense. Their snaps are coming at the expense of Upshaw, but we needed more explosive players on the field, so the switch was important.

Interesting to note that with Redding out, they actually played Erwin at TE a couple of times to add an extra blocker, both in the running game as well as to create max protect situations in the passing game. Will be interesting to see how that deployed the next couple of games, especially in the red zone against a tough Tulane defense.

Take it with a grain of salt because it was against USF. But yesterday was the best performance of the OL in the season. Condon, Hickman, Bryant, Thomas, Bissinger all got fantastic ratings, and for the first time this season it wasn't just in pass blocking - they were great in the running game. Really a dominant performance. Nice to see Condon put it all together for the first time this season.

Which leads us to the running backs. Lavine, yes, awesome, love watching him. But wow, Camar. Now we all see what's up. Both players hit the hole extremely hard and fast when they make a decision, which is the big difference between them and the other backs we have on the team. With our other backs, they take their time and it allows the second level to fill a hole after a 2 or 3 yard gain. With these guys, they are through to the next level before the LBs can react, and it results in a lot of explosive plays. Those 3 yard gains are now 7 and 8 yards. All of those complaints early in the season about why is Camar taking this other guy's snaps... now we understand. Completely different level of player.

So, now we have a fully operational battle station - healthy QB, improved OL, healthy RB, and stud secondary receivers. Tulane is a good team with a really good defense. The matchup on Thursday is fascinating. But SMU looks like we are putting things together at the right point in the season. I *think* that if we win out, and Cincy loses to Tulane, and Houston wins out, then we win a 4 way tie because of head to head amongst the 4 teams. But we have to beat Tulane next week for any of it to have a chance to play out.
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby Arkpony » Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:43 pm

Thanks again for such a great analysis!
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby AusTxPony » Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:49 pm

^Ditto^ Agree or disagree, Jason is thorough and interesting.
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby Charleston Pony » Sun Nov 13, 2022 5:29 pm

WRs running routes short of the sticks was one of the 1st things I noticed. It's one thing to do that if you are in plus territory and planning on 4th down conversions but our guys were short in bad field position. Definitely something that needs to get fixed
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby Topper » Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:07 pm

If Camar can stay healthy he will have a remarkable career. Can he handle a little more bulk or is he playing at the right weight?
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby peruna81 » Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:26 pm

Rogers still has trouble staying on task with coverage. No doubt he will get more thrown against him this Thursday. Secondary is going to be tested on RPO plays by Tulane.
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby PerunaPunch » Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:41 pm

JasonB wrote:Massey is really good in pass coverage and had the big PBU again, but his tackling is awful still. I love that he got out to the flat on the stretch run early in the second half and he blew up the play, but don't just launch a shoulder at the guy, you have to at least try and wrap up.

I love Massey's athleticism, but he tackles like a man with no arms.
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby Arkpony » Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:54 pm

PerunaPunch wrote:
JasonB wrote:Massey is really good in pass coverage and had the big PBU again, but his tackling is awful still. I love that he got out to the flat on the stretch run early in the second half and he blew up the play, but don't just launch a shoulder at the guy, you have to at least try and wrap up.

I love Massey's athleticism, but he tackles like a man with no arms.

He plays Bump and Run.
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Re: Thoughts on the USF game

Postby Pony78 » Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:33 pm

Arkpony wrote:
PerunaPunch wrote:
JasonB wrote:Massey is really good in pass coverage and had the big PBU again, but his tackling is awful still. I love that he got out to the flat on the stretch run early in the second half and he blew up the play, but don't just launch a shoulder at the guy, you have to at least try and wrap up.

I love Massey's athleticism, but he tackles like a man with no arms.

He plays Bump and Run.

Must have forgotten to finish - ...away.
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