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W2W4 - Tulane

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W2W4 - Tulane

Postby JasonB » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:07 pm

I think this is a really big game for both programs. Tulane is still in the drivers seat for winning conference, which is huge for them. Additionally, if they lose against us and Cincy, people will say they pulled a Sonny or that they weren't that good to begin with after three straight losses. It is big for SMU, not only to have a chance to win conference (I know the chances of us reaching the conference championship game aren't great, even if we win out. We need a lot of other results to go our way.), but also to establish a ton of momentum heading into the offseason, recruiting, and expansion. The more noise we can make, the better.

Tulane is a really good football team. I know, people look at the southern miss loss and the record from last year and it casts doubts. But the southern miss game was a freak loss - multiple missed 4th downs deem in USM territory, multiple missed field goals, a pick six... statistically they dominated that game. And they went on the road and beat K State, who is in the running for the Big 12 championship. As much as we can say "we played an undefeated TCU team close", they beat the second place team in that conference, away. They played UCF a hell of a lot closer than we did. They are really good.

Tulane gets a lot of press for their defense, but the offense is good as well. The numbers aren't going to blow anyone off the chart, but they are very efficient and chew clock to get the most out of their defense. They are balanced with an effective offense in both the running and passing game. You can see this being a game with very few 3 and outs, where our 4-2-5 prevents explosive plays, but they are able to get yards on a steady basis and march down the field. Stiffening and getting stops in the red zone is going to be incredibly critical in this game. Pratt is a really good quarterback who doesn't make many bad throws or decisions. He runs the show. He gets sacked a little more frequently than you would like, but he has been really good this season. He is also really good running the ball. if SMU drops 8, he is going to try and find something, and then he will take off to get a few yards rather than force a throw. It keeps the offense moving, and that scramble drill is going to be frustrating to watch tonight. They have two nice recievers, good tightends, solid line, solid backs. Just a good team across the board. Spears is probably the one big stud they have on offense, at RB. Very good runner, and has also been effective out of the backfield. Good RB, Good QB, solid line - they don't get explosive plays, but they will consistently move the ball against our defense. They also do great running the ball in short yardage situations, and our team struggles defensively there. We are going to have to force them into FG instead of TD, which is something we haven't been great at this season, and I don't really like our ability to do in this game because of how good they are in short yardage. The one area is the sacks. They give up a high sack rate when they are behind the chains and force to pass. So, if we can get some stops and get 11 and 58 in the game, that is our opportunity to create a sack and get off the field. We have to take advantage of those situations.

Flipping the script, their defense is really good. Last week they struggled with Plumlee, and we don't have that running threat to give them problems. Both teams are very efficient per play, and while we generate a ton of explosive plays, they limit explosive plays really well. They force a lot of 3 and outs, and we don't go 3 and out. The weaker part of their defense is against the running game. It still isn't bad, but SMU is going to need to have success running the ball in order to try and open things up. I suspect Tulane will come out with a pretty vanilla defense to see if they can keep a focus on pass defense and manage to stop our running game. We are going to have to push them out of that mindset to be effective. The improved power running game of Lavine and speed of Wheaton is going to have to continue to show out. If we are forced to throw the ball all game long, it isn't going to work out very well for us.

At the heard of their defense is a very good LB corps. This is what allows them to both stop the run and defend the pass. They have a really good corner, a good safety, and some okay edge rushers. But really, the DL is their weakness. They rely on the LBs to drive their run stops, and they don't create a lot of pressure when the other team passes the ball - it just shows you how good the secondary is. For SMU to be successful, we are going to need to win at the line of scrimmage, and Lavine and Wheaton are going to have to hit the second level before the LBs fill the gaps. We need to force them to respect the run and come out of their base pass protect defense. They are good enough in the secondary to take Rice out of the game for large stretches. Kerley and the other secondary options are going to need to have a big game. Drops aren't going to cut it. One thing to watch is extended plays - if the options are covered in the passing game, and they aren't generating pressure, is TM going to scramble to get yards? Is he patient enough to allow players to work their way open? There should be some times in this game where we are able to take advantage of their inability to generate sacks.

I do really like where the offense is. I think the big question is that against Maryland, TCU, Cincy, and UCF, our offense struggled from time to time because we didn't have a successful running game and we were trying to force the ball to Rice. This is the game where we are going to find out if we are really doing a good job of coming off of Rice and if the running game is actually fixed... or if we were just playing some really bad defenses.

I want to be wrong about this, but I think the difference in the game is LB. They have great ones that can help shut down running plays and help in the passing game, while ours haven't been consistent all season long. So I have Tulane winning 35-31.
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Re: W2W4 - Tulane

Postby BUS » Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:35 pm

Nice info but I think the oline shines and thus the running game opens up to Pass!
I can see 42 to 27 8)
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Re: W2W4 - Tulane

Postby PerunaPunch » Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:23 pm

YES! Been waiting for this all day. Now I can call Vegas. :P
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Re: W2W4 - Tulane

Postby PerunaPunch » Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:24 pm

JasonB wrote:but also to establish a ton of momentum heading into the offseason, recruiting, and expansion. The more noise we can make, the better.

More noise = better bowl too.
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Re: W2W4 - Tulane

Postby JasonB » Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:47 pm

BUS wrote:Nice info but I think the oline shines and thus the running game opens up to Pass!
I can see 42 to 27 8)


I hope so! We are going to certainly find out tonight if Houston and USF are signs of the running game becoming dominant, or if those teams just have really bad defenses.
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Re: W2W4 - Tulane

Postby tristatecoog » Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:09 pm

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... _Stats.pdf

* Tulane outscores its opponents 180-94 in the first half and 79-30 in the first quarter.
* Their punter is solid. He's only had four returns all season for a total of eight yards. Tulane has returned 15 punts for a 14 yard average.
* They score TDs 69% of the time in the redzone while opponents score TDs 50% of the time.
* Their students will be lively and wasted.
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