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W2W4 - Memphis

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W2W4 - Memphis

Postby JasonB » Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:31 pm

To start out, I want to warn you guys - Memphis is a better team than you think. They got blown out by Mississippi State during that team's hot start, lost heartbreakers to Houston and ECU, and lost close games at Tulane and home to UCF. They don't have any quality wins this year, but they also have beaten all the bad teams on the schedule. They roll into Ford with the same record as SMU, and just looking to close the season out on a high note before the bowl.

Now, you can argue with me that the Tulane game wasn't really that close, because they got down early. However, I'll point out that even though they had a ton of turnovers and went down big in the first half, they actually fought back. And really, if you look over their games this season, turnovers are a huge factor - when they turn it over, they lose, and when they don't they win. The defense creates turnovers in every game, it is just a matter of whether the offense will hand it back. This game is basically a toss up by the stats.

Offensively, while Memphis doesn't have that "special" player, they have a good QB, good stable of RBs, and one of the better TEs in the league. Henigan has simliar statistics as TM - 64% completion, 3000 yards, 18 TD, and 7 INT (TM is 63%, 3053, 29, and 9). He runs better than Mordeci (although I wouldn't say he is a "threat", he is just mobile enough), and the big difference in the TD count is because of explosive plays and having to settle for field goals. The WR corps is just kind of okay. Their weakness is that they have one Tackle and one Guard on the OL that really struggle, especially in pass blocking. They have a high sack rate and they struggle in short yardage situations. That said, the offense is good enough to move the ball unless we get negative plays through the OL. That is going to be the key to being able to stop them.

Defensively, Dorian Williams and Nick Anderson at LB are their best players. They have a couple of really good safeties as well, and a good edge rusher. The defense as a whole really isn't all that bad, they just get killed by the offensive turnovers, and they don't have a great defensive line overall, so they don't generate a lot of negative plays. That said, the defensive metrics are really pretty good, and the things that stand out is that they do a good job of limiting explosive plays, and their run defense is better than our run offense. But when TM goes back to pass, he is going to have a lot of time to throw the ball.

Another area to keep your eye on is that their special teams are actually pretty good, so they will have an advantage in that part of the game.

What is going to happen tomorrow? Well, keep your eye on the weather. It is going to be chilly, for sure, and our team hasn't exactly handled tackling in cold weather well this season. At some point in the afternoon it is going to stop raining, but the wind is going to pick up after the cold front comes through. The wind isn't going to be Cincy bad, but it may have an impact on the game. And with our recent history, the cold, wet football and some wind would foretell some drops and a little bit of an inconsistent passing game. To win this game, SMU is going to need to put up 40 points. In a shootout, I like the SMU OL being able to protect TM while we get some sacks and force turnovers off of hurries. But if this becomes a game where you absolutely have to run the ball, I like their ability to run over ours. My mind is concerned about the weather, drops, and poor tackling, and wants to predict Memphis 35-31.

But my heart says this is the last game for TM and RR, the team is embarrassed and eager to overcome the loss of last week when they had such a short turnaround between games, and has had a few extra days to prepare for this one. So, I'll call for SMU to pull it out, 42 - 31.
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Re: W2W4 - Memphis

Postby peruna81 » Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:35 pm

From your mouth (or keyboard) to God's ear...
stable-boy for the four horsemen of the apocalypse
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