SoCal_Pony wrote:JasonB wrote:Reduces the chance we get into the Pac 12, but it increases the chance of top programs getting together to form a 6th major conference.
How so?????
The 12 team format was inevitable and from what i read, the odds of it being in ‘24 were greater than 50/50 as they would strong arm the Rose Bowl if necessary, which apparently they did.
Every source that I’ve read has never mentioned any correlation between the ‘24 expansion date and expansion.
Without CFP expansion, there was a race for survival between the Big 12 and Pac 12, and that drove a lot of the expansion talk. Once CFP expansion was reported, it reduced the pressure. The Big 12 finalized their deal first because they needed to lock in their schools before the size of the PAC 12 contract came out. Now the PAC 12 can take their time.
Now that CFP expansion is finalized, PAC 12 expansion is purely a monetary decision. It isn't competitive (access to recruiting grounds or need another top football school). In fact, UW and UO are looking at it and thinking they have a damn good chance of being in the playoffs every year. They want to maximize per school revenue, so they will only agree to expansion if it will increase their contract size. The California schools look at it and now they don't have to sacrifice their academic integrity at all. So they can keep the ruffians out.
So, now you are looking at a situation where SMU would need to raise the overall value of the PAC 12 contract, but then the PAC 12 would only want to pay SMU by the amount that they raise the overall contract value. But again, I think there is a good chance that the pressure to expand is off unless the media partners tell the PAC 12 that there is enormous value in having games in central time zone, which would require multiple teams in the central time zone, and we haven't heard anything about that being a strong possibility.
Regarding the creation of a super conference out of the G5 remnants, the 6th best conference becomes a big deal. The AAC was set to become that prior to Houston, UCF, and Cincy leaving, which now is a real shame because I think the current AAC would drive a hell of a media deal with CFP expansion. The question is really whether the MWC can put together a big enough media contract to pull SMU and Memphis out of the AAC. Conversely, can the AAC get a large enough contract to pull Boise and Colorado State.
The final piece to keep an eye on is the ACC. When the PAC 12 gets their new contract and it is paying significantly more than the ACC contract, and after already seeing that the Big 12 got a decent deal without UT and OU, it may become obvious to those schools that if they void the current contract, even if Clemson and Miami leave to go elsewhere, the leftover schools will be able to expand and still be able to get more money than what they are getting today.