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Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby JasonB » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:48 pm

Overall, not unexpected. Homeruns in the transfer portal and mostly developmental projects in high school. Keep in mind that the staff as a whole hasn't been in Texas for a long time to earn the trust of the high school coaching community, and on top of that TCU has momentum, Houston made the jump, and Baylor and Tech both have staffs with massive Texas ties, so it isn't unexpected. I thought I would walk through position by position about where we stand right now.

QB: We lose a big recruit with TM, but Preston was a higher rated recruit and will be great next year. Jennings showed a lot in his time, and Keldric is actually a higher rated recruit than Jennings. We need 4 QBs just in case something bad happens, so I anticipate that we will add a senior transfer later in the cycle or the spring to serve as a third string QB. Someone who played at a lower level and wants a quality grad degree or an older QB who has been a reserve for a long time and is looking at an MBA or something.

RB - We know we are losing TJ, who would actually be the 6th highest rated recruit on our roster right now (although he was a solidly rated recruit). We gain Knighton, who was a stud HS recruit, is going to do really good things here, and is only behind Wheaton in terms of recruiting rating. In recruiting strength order, we have Wheaton, Knighton, Dawson, Gardner, Epton, Siggers, Lavine. More than enough numbers. Everyone has heard the smoke about the A&M RB, which would certainly imply that others are leaving at some point. I would expect to get to 5 one way or another. We have definitely upgraded the roster.

WR: We definitely lose Rice (the 5th highest rated recruit on our roster), Wiggins (6th), and Upshaw (16). Maybe Corrales as well (13th). We add #7, 8, 10, 12, and 14. We have 13 left if Corrales stays, which is enough numbers-wise. While Smith and Lavender are both very nice recruits, the others are just solid recruits. Lonnie Johnson is the lowest rated recruit, rated DITR by Rivals, but is okay by ESPN and 247, and had 2 P5 offers, so he isn't a nobody. So we have increased numbers, and don't really have any reaches, but we haven't replaced the talent level of Rice or Wiggins from a strong recruit standpoint. I know we tried but missed on the Arkansas WR, and I wouldn't be surprised if we are very active in the portal trying to get a top end WR. Otherwise, the position group has taken a step back.

TE: Maryland is great. We lose Redding, who was a DITR recruit. Who knows if Gonzalez and Matthews are coming back, and Allen hasn't shown anything so far. Tripp rates as our third highest TE (behind Maryland and Matthews), and is a very nice recruit. Technically we have 5, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us bring another through the portal in if Matthews or Gonzalez move on. We have upgraded the talent of the group, but we need to add an experienced TE if Matthews and Gonzalez aren't going to be able to play.

OL: Out of 17 players we lose Condon (2), Bissinger (7 and I think he doesn't have eligibility left?), and Thomas (16). We add White (3), Woods (5), Gill (11), and Scott (17). Scott and Gill are DITR (although 247 likes gill). Woods as our 5th rated recruit is part of the problem - he is a solid recruit, don't get me wrong. But in other positions he would be middle of the pack rather than at the top end. We pretty much broke even, maybe a slight upgrade. Right now it seems like we have 14 on the roster, but Osborne, White, Sparks, Hickman, Bryant, and Ervin are the players I would consider really ready to play in a two deep. We all know about the A&M player, which would be a great add, and would be a 7th member of the 2 deep. How the staff views the development of Robinson, Waller, Larson, and Perdue is going to dictate whether or not we add more transfers, because we need to get up to 10 solid players. I would expect us to add two more (hopefully including the A&M player).

DT: Out of 12 right now (I am for now considering Roberts a DT and not a DE), we are losing Aho (7), Brown (8), and Newman (10). We bring in Roberts (2), Miller (6), and Allen (11). Definitely upgraded the room even though Allen is a true DITR. The challenge is that we only have two 1 technique players on the roster right now - Roberts and Sandjo. I expect that we will bring in one more transfer 1-technique. The 3 technique is set with Chatman running ahead of Wright and Roberts, and a whole slew of players that can play either DT or slide out to strong side DE.

DE: We lose Fite (7), Sneed (8), Coxe (11), and Wiley (12) out of 12 players on the roster. We gain Wimberly (4) and Flowers (9). Wimberly is a good recruit, who might be a strong side DE, might end up at DT. We probably upgraded the overall talent. This is a really stacked group with Levelston, Samuels, and Jones on the strong side and Paul, Smith, and Abiara on the weak side. Feel very good here going into next season and don't need to add anyone else.

LB: technically we add depth but downgrade talent (from a recruiting rating perspective). Out of 10 players, we lose ISM (1), Reid (3), and Phillips (9). We add Kilgore (6), Mayazona (8), and Walker (10). Walker is a true DITR, but his history at Liberty obviously suggests otherwise. With 7 on the roster, I am pretty confident that we will add more transfers here, because LB can play a big part on special teams. If we see the number of RB shrink, we may see the number of LB grow. The two Burns, Goree, Kilgore, and Farrar are all nice level recruits, but with very limited experience, and we saw Keke play NB a little in the bowl game. Walker is a really nice addition, but we need another with experience. Another thing to keep in mind is that shifting Levelston to DE, Chatman to the 3, and bring in true NT at the 1 will make our LB crew look a whole lot better.

Corner: Out of 10 players, we lose Lawton (4), Armani (7), and Westfall (9). We bring in Sanders (3), Muhammad (5), and Woods (10). We definitely upgraded. Woods came out of nowhere but was all Big 12 preseason and it a massive upgrade. This is an area we haven't recruited very well in the past, but we are finally up to 4 solid recruits (Rogers, Davis, Sanders, Muhammad). Woods and Sanders are your starters, Rogers has nice athleticism as a backup, Davis, McMorris, and Hall have shown flashes, and Muhammad is a nice recruit. We are replacing Armani and Westfall with a 2 year starter at Fresno who looks really good and an All Pac 12 player. Definitely an upgrade. I think we have good numbers here, are at a good talent level, and won't see any additional players come in.

NB: Really the only players we had this year were Crossley and Clay. Roberts was initially brought in to compete with Crossley and bounce between NB and S, but when Massey picked up the injury preseason it forced him to play safety. I can see us doing the same thing with McGill this year, who is a higher rated recruit than Crossley and a multi-year starter at Stanford. I have no idea if Clay is returning or not, and we also don't know if Keke is going to move back here. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't add more players here and move one of the corners (Hall?) over here during the spring, since we have 7 over there.

S: This is the big unknown. We know we lose Roberts (3) and Cromartie (5). Is Adimora going to return? What about NWO? Roberson I think has another year, but as hard as he works, he is a backup. Moses was a good recruit and is a starter going into next year, probably next to Massey, who was originally a DITR and was never fully healthy. Between S and NB, we need to go three deep, so we need 9 players. You need a full group because these guys can do well on special teams. Right now, we have Crossley, McGill, Clay, Adimora, NWO, Moses, Massey, and Roberson. A corner or Keke moving over makes in 9. McGill is an upgrade over Roberts, for sure, so we have upgraded the room, but there are a lot of unknowns on who is coming back. We had a last minute switch that went to Colorado, so I am guessing that we will see some additional attrition here, and that we will bring in someone to replace them. Unless there is a HS prospect that they like to immediately contribute (like Moses or the guy who went to Colorado), I suspect we will add a transfer to the group.

So, downgrades: QB room but we are fine, WR room and need transfer, LB and we need another transfer.

Upgrades: RB, TE but need another transfer, OL but need another transfer, DE, DT but need another NG transfer, CB, and S but need another transfer.

Overall team upgrade, and probably at a level to compete for the conference title in the downgraded AAC, but need to add some additional pieces in order to become the clear favorite to win the AAC next year, compete against OU and TCU, and become part of the national conversation.

Everyone contribute to NIL in order to make it happen :).
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby crispy_taco » Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:48 pm

I feel like we will be completely fine at WR. Moochie Dixon and Teddy Knox are staying I believe?? I would expect Knox to take a big step forward this season to duel with Dixon for targets. Keyshawn Smith looks like an impact receiver through the portal as well. I'm not worried about taking a step back at WR. Rashee was amazing but can't help but wonder what his numbers would have been like minus those key drops he had this season.

Also, let's say:
1. Wheaton really gets going
2. Knighton reverts back to how he played under Lashlee
3. Mustangs land LJ Johnson
4. Mustangs land PJ Williams

In that scenario, you've got a three headed monster running behind a revamped O line with the big additions being Williams and Hyrin White. Now not all of that is necessarily probable to happen... but it could. Think you could also add in Preston Stone being a formidable threat with his legs. Not sure we want that after what happened this season but hey nice to have.

What I'm trying to get at here is that the offensive style could be completely different next season. We could see a LOT more rushing plays. Tempo would still be high and that would be easy to do because you would always have fresh RBs. This would hopefully make it MUCH easier on the WRs to get open with opposing teams trying to prevent the run.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby JasonB » Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:50 pm

I don't disagree - I think you see with the QBs coming in that you have more of a dual threat look and we will certainly run the ball more. I love the QB room and the running back room. We need another blocking TE. At WR, Dixon, Kerley, Knox, Goffney, Smith have a ton of potential. But Bailey and Daniels are really the only ones who have show it consistently in games, and I saw a lot of covered receivers in the bowl game.

The big question is the OL. Osborne, White, Bryant have all shown they can play at a high level. Hickman isn't perfect, but he is capable. Sparks I hear really good things about, and he locks fine in games, but he is a bit of an unknown. That is our starting 5 right now, and while White will be an upgrade at RT over Condon, Sparks is a little step down right now from JT or Biss. I would like our ability to pass block, run off tackle, and run between the tackle and the guard on the right hand side. But we will struggle to run between G and C on both sides as well as the G-T gap on the left (I am assuming Osborne is playing RG).

PJ Williams is a great talent, but zero college time and would be a RS Frosh. I would put him in the same boat as Robinson, Erin Smith, and Waller as players who have talent but haven't shown anything yet. Perdue shows flashes of being okay, but then will get dinged and really struggle, so not sure if he will develop beyond being a backup. Larson is a little bit of a project and needs time. Ervin is a solid backup, but don't think he has upside beyond that.

The thought that we will be run first, pass second, so we can rely on speed in the passing game when the other team adds players to the box is awesome, but we need a really good run blocking OL and blocking TE to pull it off. We need a transfer TE, C, and G to have enough competition and depth to pull it off.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby DallasMustang11 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:24 am

Wow thanks a lot for that breakdown Jason. Incredibly informative. I have read that we are in on the UNT transfer TE Jake Roberts. If we land him that would clearly solidify the TE room IMO.

I am mostly concerned about the WR room. I know we have talent but when rashee wasnt on the field this year the offense really took a step back. I'm worried about putting PS out there and not having that go to guy. Hopefully we can land another receiver in the portal as well.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby BUS » Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:55 am

Maybe P. S. Can look around the field and find someone open.

I see the lines as the place that needs more,better depth.

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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby EastStang » Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:46 am

Preach Bus. Never can have enough big uglies. Dominant offensive lines mean more time for QB, fewer injuries of skill players. Dominant defensive lines leads to turnovers and holds. I always harken back to the Super Bowl 22 and 26 Redskins and the Hogs. In 22 they opened holes so wide you couldn't see a defensive player. In the season leading up to 26, Mark Rypien was sacked only 11 times the whole year. The line made a mediocre QB into a Super Bowl calibre player. LIkewise on defense look at the Ravens line in Super Bowl 35, totally dominated the opponents all year long. Skill players are great, but you win or lose games in the trenches.
UNC better keep that Ram away from Peruna
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby horsemanx » Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:48 am

JasonB wrote:So, downgrades: QB room but we are fine, WR room and need transfer, LB and we need another transfer.

Upgrades: RB, TE but need another transfer, OL but need another transfer, DE, DT but need another NG transfer, CB, and S but need another transfer.

I admit I am not too familiar with all of the renovations and upgrades to the various football facilities, but does each position really have its own room?
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby JasonB » Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:05 pm

BUS wrote:Maybe P. S. Can look around the field and find someone open.

I see the lines as the place that needs more,better depth.

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Yeah, I agree with this. PS runs through progressions a lot quicker than TM, and that will help. My priority order would be: LB, NT, S, TE, OL, WR, RB.

If we get the UNT TE, the Stanford OL, the A&M OL, and the A&M RB, I would prioritize the defensive spots way over another WR.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby SoCal_Pony » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:46 pm

Jason, enjoy your inputs, even though i feel you are too optimistic at times

Having said that, what are your thoughts on the bottom of this class?

To me, it has a Phil Bennett DITR vibe which is surprising given our recent success plus more importantly our Boulevard $$$
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby ponyboy » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:51 pm

High school class was meh. Transfer class setting up to be fantastic, best in the current AAC, one of the best in the country.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby SoCal_Pony » Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:42 pm

ponyboy wrote:High school class was meh. Transfer class setting up to be fantastic, best in the current AAC, one of the best in the country.


I wouldn’t say meh as SMU landed some good local talent. 

Having said that, On3’s current ranking of next years AAC has SMU in 4th place, closer to 5th place Temple than 3rd place Tulane, which is not good.

At the top is UTSA. 

Given our Boulevard Collective that is paying every player $36k per year, that is unacceptable. I seriously doubt any conference mate is remotely matching our $$$

I did notice that On3 has 0 4-star recruits committing to any AAC school, just another reason we need to leave.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby ponyboy » Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:34 pm

As I see it, we are getting a helluva lot of nice players coming in. Far and away the best in the new AAC. For reference, what I called our “meh” high school class still ranked ahead of the second best in the remade American, UTSA. Add the transfers and it’s not even close.

But agreed we have to get out at just about any cost.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby BUS » Fri Dec 23, 2022 10:06 am

From what I read surfing the internet, the recruiting class was around 70th ranked. The portal class was ranked 13th.

Maybe we are going to grow some talent and portal the needs we find necessary.

We need your help ponysportsdtx.com

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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby JasonB » Fri Dec 23, 2022 11:37 am

SoCal_Pony wrote:Jason, enjoy your inputs, even though i feel you are too optimistic at times

Having said that, what are your thoughts on the bottom of this class?

To me, it has a Phil Bennett DITR vibe which is surprising given our recent success plus more importantly our Boulevard $$$


I agree with you, I was surprised at the low ratings of the lower end of the class. Very DITR.

These are the reasons:
- Our staff doesn't have a ton of experience recruiting Texas. They are building new relationships, and that takes time. We have a good staff who puts the work in, and this will improve as the positive results come in. I think Lashlee is also going to be able to go to the HS coaches and tell them that he didn't run kids off like Deion did, which will give him credibility. This is a work in progress.
- When you look at the TCU, Baylor, and Tech staffs, there are a lot of Texas HS ties in there, and so the competition has increased over the last year or so.
- We don't pay NIL to HS players. Boulevard pays money to the roster, but we don't pay NIL to HS like we do with transfers. It is a really smart strategy, but it will absolutely have an impact on HS recruiting.
- Also, don't discount the fact that 247 lost half their scout analysts to on3. These services were already struggling to keep up with providing a transfer rating with the thousands of kids entering the portal. But now they have less or less experienced resources they are having to bring in to fill out the staff and are stretched thin. Allen is a great example of where things are - he had a great senior year, candidate for the Landry award. He is a good college prospect. But he has no rating on Rivals or 247 or ESPN because those analysts just haven't caught up yet. And even when they do get to him, they are going to throw a lower rating at him because he is committed to SMU (although it is important to note that on3 has an 87 rating, which makes him a very nice recruit for us). The creation of On3 has created a lot of churn, and the HS rating process has suffered because of it (at least for this year).

Overall, the hope I had was that we would move from the old days, where under PB and JJ we would have a handful of good recruits, but the bottom half of the class was DITR, to a situation where we would keep the 10-15 good recruits, and then instead of reaching on DITR we would go into the transfer portal and get excellent players.

As NIL is evolving, I don't think that will be the case. I think we are going to get studs from the portal (half of our class every year, 10-15 recruits). But because we don't pay NIL directly to HS recruits, I expect us to split a HS class of 15 recruits with 10 solid recruits and 5 DITR, which is kind of where we were at this year. As this staff builds stronger relationships with the HS coaches and builds a reputation, we can climb that up to 15 solids. But I think every 4 star is probably getting paid, and we aren't in that game. Instead, we are looking at the Alex Kilgore's who are undervalued high 3 star players.

Where we will always have an advantage with transfers over other programs is that not only can we offer NIL, but because of our academic reputation, older players who aren't only thinking about the NFL will always find us more attractive than many other schools across the P5 and G5. Williams and Bissinger are great examples of good transfers that came here not only for NIL but also because of Cox. Tech, TCU, Baylor and certainly the schools in the AAC can't offer that.
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Re: Post Signing Day Roster Analysis

Postby SoCal_Pony » Fri Dec 23, 2022 1:34 pm

Thanks Jason for that reply.

Obviously our coaching staff is aware of this and i also expect improvement over time.
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