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From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby FroggieFever » Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:31 pm

Topper wrote:FF was never the immature, adolescent style baiter like that PurplePimple guy who seemingly spent most of his time composing odes to Zach Evans and trash talking our team on this board. Until we demolished the frogs in Fort Worth. On the other hand, FF clearly wanted to convey the impression that he is a signicant presence at TCU who just wanted to let us all in on the inside scoop regarding, welll, just about everything to do with our own and anyone else's business. Can't imagine anyone meeting that description wasting time on Ponyfans.


I appreciate the comments but became cocky in my own right when posting as of late bc I have been involved in these discussions (not from a decision-making standpoint, just advisory - and full disclosure I am not remunerated by TCU nor do I work for the institution) and the push back was chipping away against my ego. Pride is the trap of ego pleasure.

I apologize. Hugging the cactus.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby orguy » Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:50 am

Crawl back in your hole ugly frog. Seek attention somewhere else.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby bubba pony » Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:31 am

FF is not a [deleted]. His information isn't nasty and I am OK with his input. It's no more inaccurate as other articles and posting.
Sometime fellow ponyfans, maybe tone it down.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby Dukie » Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:52 am

bubba pony wrote:FF is not a [deleted]. His information isn't nasty and I am OK with his input. It's no more inaccurate as other articles and posting.
Sometime fellow ponyfans, maybe tone it down.

Ditto
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby Comet » Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:23 am

I'm here to also say I'm a fan of FF. Do stay and continue to contribute to the community.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby EastStang » Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:52 am

FF is okay. We all look at things through our school's lenses. Purple is a weird colored lens, LOL.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby JasonB » Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:29 pm

FroggieFever wrote:
Topper wrote:FF was never the immature, adolescent style baiter like that PurplePimple guy who seemingly spent most of his time composing odes to Zach Evans and trash talking our team on this board. Until we demolished the frogs in Fort Worth. On the other hand, FF clearly wanted to convey the impression that he is a signicant presence at TCU who just wanted to let us all in on the inside scoop regarding, welll, just about everything to do with our own and anyone else's business. Can't imagine anyone meeting that description wasting time on Ponyfans.


I appreciate the comments but became cocky in my own right when posting as of late bc I have been involved in these discussions (not from a decision-making standpoint, just advisory - and full disclosure I am not remunerated by TCU nor do I work for the institution) and the push back was chipping away against my ego. Pride is the trap of ego pleasure.

I apologize. Hugging the cactus.


I've been around long enough to vouch for FF.

Nobody does business in isolation. Despite what our preference is, SMU would be a fool to only talk with one conference - we are in open conversations with the PAC, ACC, and Big12 for the same reason that the Pac12 teams are engaging with the Big12, ACC, and Big10 - nobody wants to be left at the alter if the deal falls through. But that doesn't change the fact that the PAC12 leaders want to stick together, and currently plan on adding SMU. They are all reaching out to see what the other options are "just in case". The easy button is the Big12, but the reason the ACC + PAC12 merger talks have sprung up is because they are looking at backup options.

The undercard here is the ACC getting 8 schools to kill their current commercial agreements, and then leaving to form a megaconference with the PAC12. The ACC would lose a couple of schools to the SEC or Big 10, but the combined TV package would be much better than what the ACC makes today and what the PAC12 could get independently, and nobody would have to sacrifice their academic prestige like they would if they joined the Big12.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby Dukie » Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:04 pm

JasonB wrote:The undercard here is the ACC getting 8 schools to kill their current commercial agreements, and then leaving to form a megaconference with the PAC12. The ACC would lose a couple of schools to the SEC or Big 10, but the combined TV package would be much better than what the ACC makes today and what the PAC12 could get independently, and nobody would have to sacrifice their academic prestige like they would if they joined the Big12.


Jason, would you elaborate on this a little bit? Are you counting to 8 ACC schools because that's the number that it would take to form a majority vote to undo the current GOR through 2036? If I'm following that thinking correctly, it's very difficult for me to figure out which schools are going to lead that (versus which schools are going to separately go to the SEC or Big 10). It's pretty easy to figure out which schools are most at risk of being left behind, on the other hand.

I think the inertia for keeping things frozen in place would be very strong, just based on prisoner's-dilemma-style uncertainties.

Now the ACC as it is joining with the PAC as it will be to create some sort of added financial overlay on top of the existing ACC money, that I could see (for the conferences; not sure about the TV/streaming interest). I'm afraid any other deal is so complicated as to fall apart--and therefore leave the ACC GOR intact, at least for a while longer.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby orguy » Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:21 pm

Comet wrote:I'm here to also say I'm a fan of FF. Do stay and continue to contribute to the community.


Lots of support for a "cordial" toad. Always creepy when frogs come around to
troll. Did you all collectively get together for activities when TCwho crapped the
bed on national TV against Georgia? Glad none of you represent SMU in an official
capacity or we would be debating the merits of joining the Sunbelt conference.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby carolina stang » Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:55 pm

Welcome back FF!
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby Insane_Pony_Posse » Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:17 am

orguy wrote:Lots of support for a "cordial" toad. Always creepy when frogs come around to
troll. Did you all collectively get together for activities when TCwho crapped the
bed on national TV against Georgia? Glad none of you represent SMU in an official
capacity or we would be debating the merits of joining the Sunbelt conference.


You do realize there are SMU fans trolling on the TCU message board? Some out in the open and some "under-cover" so to speak. Across college football among rivals it's really not that unusual.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby JasonB » Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:54 am

Dukie wrote:
JasonB wrote:The undercard here is the ACC getting 8 schools to kill their current commercial agreements, and then leaving to form a megaconference with the PAC12. The ACC would lose a couple of schools to the SEC or Big 10, but the combined TV package would be much better than what the ACC makes today and what the PAC12 could get independently, and nobody would have to sacrifice their academic prestige like they would if they joined the Big12.


Jason, would you elaborate on this a little bit? Are you counting to 8 ACC schools because that's the number that it would take to form a majority vote to undo the current GOR through 2036? If I'm following that thinking correctly, it's very difficult for me to figure out which schools are going to lead that (versus which schools are going to separately go to the SEC or Big 10). It's pretty easy to figure out which schools are most at risk of being left behind, on the other hand.

I think the inertia for keeping things frozen in place would be very strong, just based on prisoner's-dilemma-style uncertainties.

Now the ACC as it is joining with the PAC as it will be to create some sort of added financial overlay on top of the existing ACC money, that I could see (for the conferences; not sure about the TV/streaming interest). I'm afraid any other deal is so complicated as to fall apart--and therefore leave the ACC GOR intact, at least for a while longer.


Let's take the worst case scenario, where some teams leave from the ACC to the Big10 and SEC. If the TV deal that the remaining ACC teams + PAC 12 teams could get (keep in mind, if that happened, odds are that OU and UW head to the Big 10 as well as part of an expansion) would exceed the $35M the ACC contract pays (after bowl payouts are included), then it becomes financially viable for teams to pull out of the ACC contract.

At that point, ESPN loses a contract, and they become a primary bidder to the joint ACC + PAC12 league, with a ton of different timezones. the ESPN + Amazon/Apple bid becomes significantly larger than what the ACC or PAC12 could get independently.

Under this worst case scenario, I'll take a stab that OU, UW, UNC, UVA head to the Big 10, and then FSU and Clemson go to the SEC.

So the new ACC-PAC12 becomes BC, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, VT, Wake, WSU, OSU, Stanford, Cal, ASU, UA, UU, Colorado, SDSU, SMU, Rice, Tulane. Does that drum up enough investment to justify pulling that ACC apart?

Probably not right now. I think what we end up with is that the PAC 12 signs a 6 year deal in mid-march, adding SDSU and SMU, and then at the end of the six year deal this scenario above plays out.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby Dukie » Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:29 am

JasonB wrote:Let's take the worst case scenario, where some teams leave from the ACC to the Big10 and SEC. If the TV deal that the remaining ACC teams + PAC 12 teams could get (keep in mind, if that happened, odds are that OU and UW head to the Big 10 as well as part of an expansion) would exceed the $35M the ACC contract pays (after bowl payouts are included), then it becomes financially viable for teams to pull out of the ACC contract.

At that point, ESPN loses a contract, and they become a primary bidder to the joint ACC + PAC12 league, with a ton of different timezones. the ESPN + Amazon/Apple bid becomes significantly larger than what the ACC or PAC12 could get independently.

Under this worst case scenario, I'll take a stab that OU, UW, UNC, UVA head to the Big 10, and then FSU and Clemson go to the SEC.

So the new ACC-PAC12 becomes BC, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, VT, Wake, WSU, OSU, Stanford, Cal, ASU, UA, UU, Colorado, SDSU, SMU, Rice, Tulane. Does that drum up enough investment to justify pulling that ACC apart?

Probably not right now. I think what we end up with is that the PAC 12 signs a 6 year deal in mid-march, adding SDSU and SMU, and then at the end of the six year deal this scenario above plays out.


I've been in the past a pretty strong proponent of the notion that GOR agreements can be overcome, but if Texas and OU can't break the Big 12 GOR to leave more than one year early, then I'm pretty sure no ACC school can break the ACC GOR at what would be 13 years early today. Or even 7 years early, six years from now. This would all have to happen at once, and the schools leaving for the B1G, the SEC, and this new ACC-PAC would all have to come out better off. FWIW I don't think that's all of the remaining ACC; there's no way BC or Syracuse or Wake make the cut, and there's a big group of iffy schools as well. Hell, I'm not even sure a majority of schools can break the GOR, or if a minority or even a single school can hold everyone else to it.
Last edited by Dukie on Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby SMUstang » Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:20 pm

Dukie wrote:
So the new ACC-PAC12 becomes BC, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, VT, Wake, WSU, OSU, Stanford, Cal, ASU, UA, UU, Colorado, SDSU, SMU, Rice, Tulane. Does that drum up enough investment to justify pulling that ACC apart?

Probably not right now. I think what we end up with is that the PAC 12 signs a 6 year deal in mid-march, adding SDSU and SMU, and then at the end of the six year deal this scenario above plays out.


Or not, who knows what the media will be willing to invest in six years from now? Maybe the above ACC-PAC12 will attract enough money for the media to invest. Maybe streaming will be mature enough for college football by then. Let's worry about today and not six years down the road. Today a Pac-12 investment in SDSU and SMU makes sense. And the ACC GOR remains firm. Six years ago I wouldn't have given SMU much chance of joining the Pac-12. Circumstances change.
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Re: From "Big 12 insider" and "CFB expansion expert"

Postby EastStang » Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:32 pm

I don't see a Dukie's plan going through. (1) UVA will have a huge problem leaving VT behind. Gov. Youngkin (who is a Rice grad and married to an SMU grad) would have difficulty selling something that benefitted those schools to the detriment of VT. It would be dangerous for him and probably the same in Carolina. (2) UVA and UNC are not good in football. You only mentioned 4 schools who would leave. Why would the others want to get away from Clemson and FSU? And why would Clemson want to leave a conference where they are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the Playoffs for the foreseeable future. So, I really don't see it happening.
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