Dukie wrote:JasonB wrote:The undercard here is the ACC getting 8 schools to kill their current commercial agreements, and then leaving to form a megaconference with the PAC12. The ACC would lose a couple of schools to the SEC or Big 10, but the combined TV package would be much better than what the ACC makes today and what the PAC12 could get independently, and nobody would have to sacrifice their academic prestige like they would if they joined the Big12.
Jason, would you elaborate on this a little bit? Are you counting to 8 ACC schools because that's the number that it would take to form a majority vote to undo the current GOR through 2036? If I'm following that thinking correctly, it's very difficult for me to figure out which schools are going to lead that (versus which schools are going to separately go to the SEC or Big 10). It's pretty easy to figure out which schools are most at risk of being left behind, on the other hand.
I think the inertia for keeping things frozen in place would be very strong, just based on prisoner's-dilemma-style uncertainties.
Now the ACC as it is joining with the PAC as it will be to create some sort of added financial overlay on top of the existing ACC money, that I could see (for the conferences; not sure about the TV/streaming interest). I'm afraid any other deal is so complicated as to fall apart--and therefore leave the ACC GOR intact, at least for a while longer.
Let's take the worst case scenario, where some teams leave from the ACC to the Big10 and SEC. If the TV deal that the remaining ACC teams + PAC 12 teams could get (keep in mind, if that happened, odds are that OU and UW head to the Big 10 as well as part of an expansion) would exceed the $35M the ACC contract pays (after bowl payouts are included), then it becomes financially viable for teams to pull out of the ACC contract.
At that point, ESPN loses a contract, and they become a primary bidder to the joint ACC + PAC12 league, with a ton of different timezones. the ESPN + Amazon/Apple bid becomes significantly larger than what the ACC or PAC12 could get independently.
Under this worst case scenario, I'll take a stab that OU, UW, UNC, UVA head to the Big 10, and then FSU and Clemson go to the SEC.
So the new ACC-PAC12 becomes BC, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, VT, Wake, WSU, OSU, Stanford, Cal, ASU, UA, UU, Colorado, SDSU, SMU, Rice, Tulane. Does that drum up enough investment to justify pulling that ACC apart?
Probably not right now. I think what we end up with is that the PAC 12 signs a 6 year deal in mid-march, adding SDSU and SMU, and then at the end of the six year deal this scenario above plays out.