W2W4 - LT

[JasonB]

Normally, I drop these the day before or day of the game, but I'm travelling ahead of the holiday weekend so it is coming early. Sad to miss the game this weekend, but I'll be watching on TV and provide my comments afterwards. I do expect us to win and cover the 20 point spread pretty easily.

- Last week, LT struggled early on defense, but then really shut down FIU allowing only 4 passing yards and less than 100 yards rushing after the first quarter. They adjusted by narrowing the splits on the DL and run blitzing from the LBs. The corners for LT played great all game - the FIU QB was awful, but the outside corners look really good.
- To counter the run blitzes, in the run game I think you are going to see SMU go to a power running game using the H-Back (Stone Eby and Chatman). The dominant play to look for is going to be off the right side, with Osborne and White taking out their defensive linemen, the H-Back taking out a blitzing LB, and then it is off to the races for the RB.
- I would also closely watch Hickman. This is a game where he can show if he is just going to be an average AAC lineman or if he has really taken a step forward. We are going to have a clear strength in the running game hitting the hole between guard and tackle, or off tackle. But I really want to see if Hickman can create a seal on the NG so that we can actually run between the center and guard on short yardage situations. If we can get that push, we can get 3rd and 1 almost every time, and it really helps on the goal line as well. In those short yardage situations, if you can run effectively behind the guard, or between guard and center, it is quick hitting. It forces the defense to collapse inside, and that is what opens up the off tackle run in short yardage situations for the big runs. Back in the day, this is what the Cowboys did with Stepnoski and Larry Allen. They were guaranteed to get that short yardage up the middle if you didn't crowd it. Once you did, they would run Emmitt off tackle for a huge gain on a 3rd and one. Is Hickman good enough to win short yardage inside without the help of an H-back is a big question that can be answered here - if he can do it against LT, it doesn't mean it will work against OU and TCU, but it does mean he will probably be able to pull it off in conference.
- Next to Hickman, watch Parr at LG. I was really impressed at first look. If he can play really well, and we are an equal threat to run behind him and Bryant as we are with Osborne and White on the other side, that is trouble for the opposing defense. Same with short yardage - if we can run behind either him or Osborne, that becomes a big problem. I'm interested to see if he can really win at the point of attack in the running game, or if he is just kind of okay. I think he can actually win.
- I think there is a good chance that with this OL, we become a power running game first, and then pass off of the success of the running game. Two years ago against LT, we passed 48 times and ran it 38. If the OL and running game is as good as I think it is, I would not be surprised at all to see us, in an 85 play game, run it 55 times and only pass it 30.
- In the passing game, the key for Preston is going to be patience. They have good corners, and the run blitzing is going to leave holes over the middle. Will he not force the ball outside and take the easy pass to a TE or slot over the middle? The deep slant from the slot will also be there, and if he can hit Bailey or Daniels in stride it will go a long way. As the game goes along, the safeties will sneak up, so can we hit a deep post or a TE over the top to take advantage of it? Stone has been fantastic in practice hitting WR deep on the fly pattern, but I don't think those opportunities will come this game.
- I'm also going to be interested in how much RPO is run and how that goes along. I can see a situation where the run/pass balance goes more pass heavy just because in the RPO, the run blitzes shown will force a quick pass out to the WR. It has an opportunity to be effective - LT's safeties don't seem particularly fast, so once a WR gets past the corner, we could break some long plays. I wouldn't be surprised to see Keyshawn Smith play an important role as a blocker on these plays, and I bet they use Daniels as the receiver. I'm interested to see how much Lashlee goes with the RPO versus just the power running game. I would guess power running until the team settles in a bit, and then hit the RPO.
- Defensively, I want to see us completely dominate the DL. I think Roberts, Miller, and whomever is playing 3 tech are going to be impossible for LT to handle. They really struggled to run the ball consistently against FIU, and I think we have the ability to bottle them up even more. If Roberts is as good as I think he is, he will dominate the strong side of the line in this matchup.
- in the running game, I am interested to see if Miller is good enough to demand a double team on every single play. LT was forced to double the FIU NG, so I am sure the same will be the case here. If that does happen, Levelston and Chatman should make a significant impact at the other DT position. Chatman may have a monster game now that he is playing next to a true NG. It is going to be really important to watch how Miller's backups play against those same double teams - can they handle it, or does it open up for running down the middle. If they can't handle it in this game, depth at NG will be a problem all season.
- In passing downs, keep your eye on Roberts and the Bandit position. I want to see if we can generate pressure off the edge when only rushing 4 players. Will Roberts be as effective in the pass rush as he will be in the running game? And can Paul, Smith, or Robertson be that guy off the other edge. I think we will generate plenty of pressure up the middle as well, but the edge is going to be what determines our success against the big teams. If our bandit position can't generate consistent pressure, that is going to be what prevents the defense from becoming elite rather than just an average defense.
- I don't think the QB has the arm strength to really impact us outside. I am really interested to see how Crossley and Sanders do against their best receiver, Smoke. The only throws they made last game were to Smoke in the slot or over the middle short to the TE, The ability of our slot corners to take away Smoke early and our improved speed at LB to take away the short TE pass is what will allow our DL to get sacks on the LT QB. Lots of sacks mean we are good enough to play aggressive. If we allow him to get rid of the ball quickly and avoid sacks, that will be an indication that we still don't really trust our defense and are protecting against the long play. I'm hoping for the former, of course. But last year, there is no way we would have trusted our LBs in coverage or our safeties to protect the deep play, so we would play off everywhere and give away the underneath routes. The Liberty defense is much more aggressive than that, and this matchup is going to be a good indication of how aggressively we are going to play in conference this season. I would like to see us playing aggressively enough to force more than 20 pressures over the course of the game.

I'd like to see us win this game with us scoring in the upper 40s or 50 and LT below 20. Scoring less than 40 or allowing more than 20 would be disappointing, IMHO, with the team we expect to have this season.

[BUS]

Thank you as always for the break down!

48 to 17 then. I'll change my prediction.

[ojaipony]

Very good points all around and especially about Hickman. That's why I'm disappointed in Clark coming in out of shape. I think he could be a difference maker in the run game in sealing the NG. But, like you said, we'll see. Pony up!

[crazy horse]

Great analysis.
I am so ready for football I watched part of the Tulsa and UAB games.