W2W4 - TCU

[JasonB]

I'll start this off by stating that I fully understand the reasoning behind why TCU is ending the rivalry with SMU.

The fact is that once UT and OU leave the Big12, there is no big name brand within the conference that is going to attract attention. A portion of TCU's season tickets come from alumni, who are going to remain dedicated to the brand. But another portion comes from people who want to see big time college football. With the status of the Big12 declining, in order to generate both interest and revenue, TCU is forced to move to a model where they host all of their non-conference games and they schedule teams from lower leagues in order to walk into conference every year with an undefeated record and some hype behind the brand, similar to the approach Baylor took a decade ago. Unfortunately, SMU moving to the ACC means there is an even lower likelihood of TCU extending the series. The first reason to end it was because of the need for more home games. The second is that now SMU is too high level of competition. It sucks for the TCU fanbase, because their non-conference is going to loaded up with Arkansas State and the like every single season.

Moving on, here are my thoughts on the game:
- The 3-3-5 that TCU runs is really, really hard to play against. Especially for a young QB. And especially for the RPO. The nature of that defense is that everyone is back off the line of scrimmage and gets a running start to swarm to the ball. This is why the run defense is so good. But it is also hard because to the naked eye, it looks like there are only 6 in the box every play, and then after the snap, everything moves. If you are running an RPO, it seems like you should run pre-snap and then all of a sudden a ton of players are crashing the line and you are stuck with a 2 yard gain.
- The same thing happens in the passing game - you think the short out or the pass to the flat is open and then suddenly everyone races up and makes the play. Dink and dump and running the ball on first down don't work against this defense. They are at their best when they are tricking you into running the ball, and then pressing forward to get you behind the chains, and then they can drop 8.
- Another thing - don't roll your eyes when Rhett says the talent is better than last year. Last year's TCU team got Duggan to overachieve and they won a ton of close games. But it had a lot of talent. And they have reloaded in the portal. The overall talent is just as good or better than it was last year. Everyone has a lower opinion because of the Colorado game. But Colorado is actually the perfect matchup against this defense. If you have elite players at skill positions, and you pass when they think you are running, so you have space behind the defense, or you run when they think you are passing so you have an elite RB getting the ball in space, that is where they can get beat. Colorado doesn't have a lot on the offensive line. But they have two super athletic stud receivers, a RB who operates really well in space, and a mobile QB. Perfect matchup against this defense.
- For us this week, when they are playing the run, we are going to have WR 1v1 versus their corners, and we need someone to step up and win that matchup. Rice kept the game close on his own last year by winning against Tomlinson over and over again. We are going to be very reliant on Hudson, Brinson, Kerley, and Smith on winning on the outside. This is a very big concern of mine, because I am not sure if we are there yet.
- If that isn't working, the other thing we have seen recently is the slot going deep. And then we haven't really seen us send Maryland deep this year. I would look for those routes to be run a ton in order to keep the safeties honest. Again, if you are using your TE and slots on short routes, that just plays to TCU's strength because they can keep everything in front of them. You have to push them deep and stretch the field.
- They are susceptible to misdirection. The flea flicker in the OU game and the playaction to Daniels last game - those are plays that were run to prepare for this week. I would expect to see us run misdirection quite a bit.
- If we can actually show that we can stretch the field and be dangerous, that is going to open up opportunities for Rooster and Camar in the flat as well as Stone to scramble. But we need to make some downfield plays first.
- Finally, the running game. We have struggled all season to block LBs that are supporting the run. If that is the case against TCU, it is going to be a really long day for the running game. I would guess that we are going to come out throwing the ball a bit, and using the pass to open up the field so that we can start runing the ball.
- On the other side of the ball, OU helped us out a little bit by calling a conservative game, because they were extremely confident in their defense. That will not be the case with TCU. The word is out now about our defensive line, and I don't think TCU will take the chance of getting behind the ball. I expect a lot of playaction early to slow down the pass rush and try to get our safeties to bite. They will attack us over the middle with their TE if our safeties come in too much. If our DL doesn't respect the playaction, then they will pull some screens together and get the ball in the hands of the RBs.I am also expecting a lot of rollouts from Morris to get him out of the pocket and again reduce the impact that our DL has, and put pressure on the LBs.
- I also expect that they will target Megginson, especially early in the game, and force us to adjust. Lots of quick routes over there. Then he will play tight, we will roll a safety to help, and they will start trying to send their slot long.

When you look at Roster talent in the Big12, there is OU, Texas, TCU, and then everyone else is way behind. Our roster talent is better than a lot of the other teams in the Big 12, but we are still behind those big three. The scoreline of the TCU - Houston game does not reflect how much TCU actually dominated Houston in that game. Granted, we are better than Houston, but it was impressive. Our DL showed that it could win against the OU OL, even though OU tested it over and over again. TCU isn't going to make that same mistake. I expect they will come out aggressive and throwing the ball. And offensively, we are going to have to get pretty creative, because TCU has a good defense - they were just exposed by the absolutely elite skill position players on the Colorado team.

Also, don't overlook that this is a massive game for TCU. They recognize the momentum lost to SMU on the recruiting trail and the impact of the ACC announcement. They have this game circled, and if TCU has any chance at all to get separation during the game, Dykes is going to take every opportunity to run up the score.

I think our lack of an elite WR prevents us from really stretching the TCU defense, and our offense is forced to grind things out similar to the OU game. This eats clock, and the defense keeps us in the game, but TCU tacks on a TD late and wins 35-24 as we hopefully get JO and some others healthy headed into conference play.

[Topper]

This is one of those games involving a ton of emotion. I agree that TCU is loaded with talent, but some experts are saying that our QB is better than theirs and that is always a game changer if true. An errant pass here, a fumble there, a missed snap, a blocked field goal or any number of unexpected bounces of the ball could turn this game either way. Against OU Rhett demonstrated that he likes to slow the game down against the big boys and rightly so. Hoping this is not a track meet and that the breaks go our way this time. I hope that we focus on a tight, ball control style passing attack to open up the field a bit for the rbs.

[JasonB]

This is one of those games involving a ton of emotion. I agree that TCU is loaded with talent, but some experts are saying that our QB is better than theirs and that is always a game changer if true. An errant pass here, a fumble there, a missed snap, a blocked field goal or any number of unexpected bounces of the ball could turn this game either way. Against OU Rhett demonstrated that he likes to slow the game down against the big boys and rightly so. Hoping this is not a track meet and that the breaks go our way this time. I hope that we focus on a tight, ball control style passing attack to open up the field a bit for the rbs.

Yeah, definitely not saying that we don't have a chance.

In the Big 12 this year, there are clearly 4 tiers. First is UT and OU, both of which are going to be top 10. Next is TCU, who will lose to them but are clearly a top 25 team. Next tier are K State and Kansas, and I think we fall in that tier. Absolutely a chance to win against the upper tiers, but also clearly an underdog. Everyone else falls below that.