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Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby JasonB » Sun Oct 01, 2023 1:37 pm

Just finished the rewatch. Overall, things held true to what we knew going into the game - Charlotte had some big players on defense, but weren't fast, and have nothing on offense outside of the QB. As annoying as the last bit was to watch, it is important to remember this thing was 27-3 at one point.

- I really like that Rhett added the Miami Dolphins motion play into the playbook on the first drive. I bet we see that more moving forward.
- Bryant struggled with number 0 at LT on the first drive, then got pulled for Williams. Not sure if that was due to injury or performance, but something to watch.
- Sparks struggled inside with the very good DT for Charlotte. That is something where if Osborne was able to play, you don't see as much pressure on Stone. The sack on the second drive, Our tackles do a good job forcing the ends wide, and Stone goes to step up in the pocket, but Sparks was pushed so far back that he couldn't step forward.
- First drive, Preston threw a corner of the endzone ball to Kerley. Kerley went up, but then waited for the ball to come to him and the corner slapped it a way. Those are plays where in the past you see a Proche or Rice reach out with their hands to grab the ball earlier and you either get to the ball before the DB does or it forces interference.
- The long QB run they had was a defensive alignment issue. Everyone was lined up on the strong side, the weakside was wide open. Really nice play design, but a great job by the coaching staff to make sure it didn't happen again.
- Against an athletic QB, your LBs are really put under stress, and for the most part they played really well. Walker was fantastic. Wilson lacks a little size and gets pushed back sometimes, but he is quick to the ball and not afraid of contact. Burns struggled a little, with the holding call and just overall not in the right spots and not physical enough.
- Third offensive series, Williams came over to RT and Bryant was back at LT. Williams got the blocking assignment wrong and let the player go free on Stone for the sack. Later he got beat for another sack on third down. Doesn't look near as good on that side.
- The late hit call against Chatman was awful.
- I haven't watched interviews of what happened with Camar, but Gardner did well in his place. You can see he has the flash of acceleration. Just would be nice if he lowered his shoulder sometimes - he backs out of contact and it hurts us on the runs inside.
- We heard all spring and fall about Chatman at H-Back and then never saw it. Finally busted it out today, and oh my god, wow. He is just a fantastic, punishing blocker. Focus on him every time he gets in the game. That H-Back look hasn't done the job yet with Eby in there, but Chatman blocking makes a huge difference. He sealed the edge on the 95 hard TD run.
- When we had to settle for our first FG, we had first and goal on the two. Second down, Preston keeps it on the read but should have handed that ball off. Third down, Daniels has to make that catch. But Stone he had Bailey on the slant on that play early and also Smith in the flat but couldn't pass to him because again our RT (this time White) blocks inside and leaves 0 (their best player) free to rush the passer. The blocking schemes really need to be cleaned up, it is sloppy and to this point it already cost us several sacks and now a FG instead of TD.
- The illegal downfield call on the TD they took away for K Smith was awful. Sure, White is blocking like it is a running play. But he was engaged in blocks the entire time and was really close to the 3 yards, and it had no impact at all on anything.
- On Stone's INT, yes RJ cut the route off, but still there was safety coverage, he should have never made that through. He knew it immediately and said "my bad", but that was a poor decision. That said, this should have been 24-3 at half.
- NWO and Moses were fantastic. To be honest, Moses might be our best safety. That play he made when he shoots from safety to cut down Jones for a loss at the end of the half was such a great play. Not only was he a missile, but both 34 and 8 had covered the back out of the backfield and so someone (I think 8) lost the QB responsibility. if Moses doesn't have his head in the game, that run could have gone a long way.
- Second to last play of the half should have been intentional grounding against their QB. He threw the ball out of bounds but there is no way it went out in front of the line of scrimmage.
- Paul has come such a long way in terms of his ability to play against the run. He is a really good compliment to Roberts on the other side.
- The 95 yard run is the first time all year we have blocked the H-Back run the way it is supposed to work. The HBack takes the DE, the RG seals inside, and the LG pulls so that he and the RT can block the LBs at and open the next level. Every single time we run it, Either the H-Back misses or the OL can't find a guy to block. This time, Williams and Parr both found their guys, Knighton hit the right hole, and it was a home run.
- They should have called a PI on the deep pass from Stone to K Smith. K Smith is starting to show a little bit, maybe he can emerge as that top WR.
- Don't forget the only reason we got stopped on that FG drive when we make it 27-3 is the bad snap.
- When they put their passing QB in, we sat Walker and the LB play took a big step back. 8 struggled a bit with his positioning. He got called for holding on 3rd and 18, then blocked out of the play on the next run. That said, that roughing call on Wilson was terrible. After that double penalty, we put Myzano and Kilgore at LB and they made back to back great plays to force 4th down.
- That should have been targeting on the late hit on Stone.
- The holding penalty against Williams after that call was terrible and well behind the play and had no impact at all. Terrible call that killed that drive.
- Besides Burns, the other player who really struggled when he came in was Massey. Great straight line speed, but misses a lot of tackles.

After I left the game last night, my overall feeling was "meh". I thought we played well defensively early, were sloppy defensively late, and things didn't click on offense all that well.

After re-watching, I feel a ton better about how we did. We sat Walker for Burns and that allowed them to grind out a couple of drives. When the game mattered, however, the defense was great. On offense, we had some self inflicted mistakes, but it wasn't as bad as I thought. If a couple of really bad penalties aren't called, this game is 41-10, which everyone would feel a lot better about. That was absolutely our best game of the season running the ball - Charlotte has a good DL, we were without Camar and LJ, and we still went over 200. It is a great sign of things to come. Add Osborne to that mix after the bye week, more Chatman at H-Back, and this running game should be pretty dominant the rest of the season. ECU has been much worse than expected this season and their offense is terrible. Temple is not good either. We should be 5-2 with a couple of blowouts by the time we play our next home game against Tulsa before Halloween.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby Pony78 » Sun Oct 01, 2023 2:40 pm

Thanks, JasonB. Always enjoy your analysis. I’m sure you are right on most/all these issues especially after a rewatch, but you had me at “meh.”
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby mtrout » Sun Oct 01, 2023 3:44 pm

I'm kinda worried. But then again we don't play anyone else in the top 90 except Memphis so I'm not worried.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby AusTxPony » Sun Oct 01, 2023 4:02 pm

I felt a big "meh" as I left Ford as well. Just hoping this offense will soon get clicking. I will rewatch per Jason's report and perhaps be more optimistic. Right now, don't see us beating Memphis or Tulane (if opportunity avails). Nice time for a bye week, though. Get well, get tougher, get it together.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby Arkpony » Sun Oct 01, 2023 5:15 pm

After seeing 5 games and the offense not performing well, I am now hoping for at least an 8-4 season.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby ALEX LIFESON » Sun Oct 01, 2023 5:48 pm

JasonB wrote:Just finished the rewatch. Overall, things held true to what we knew going into the game - Charlotte had some big players on defense, but weren't fast, and have nothing on offense outside of the QB. As annoying as the last bit was to watch, it is important to remember this thing was 27-3 at one point.

- I really like that Rhett added the Miami Dolphins motion play into the playbook on the first drive. I bet we see that more moving forward.
- Bryant struggled with number 0 at LT on the first drive, then got pulled for Williams. Not sure if that was due to injury or performance, but something to watch.
- Sparks struggled inside with the very good DT for Charlotte. That is something where if Osborne was able to play, you don't see as much pressure on Stone. The sack on the second drive, Our tackles do a good job forcing the ends wide, and Stone goes to step up in the pocket, but Sparks was pushed so far back that he couldn't step forward.
- First drive, Preston threw a corner of the endzone ball to Kerley. Kerley went up, but then waited for the ball to come to him and the corner slapped it a way. Those are plays where in the past you see a Proche or Rice reach out with their hands to grab the ball earlier and you either get to the ball before the DB does or it forces interference.
- The long QB run they had was a defensive alignment issue. Everyone was lined up on the strong side, the weakside was wide open. Really nice play design, but a great job by the coaching staff to make sure it didn't happen again.
- Against an athletic QB, your LBs are really put under stress, and for the most part they played really well. Walker was fantastic. Wilson lacks a little size and gets pushed back sometimes, but he is quick to the ball and not afraid of contact. Burns struggled a little, with the holding call and just overall not in the right spots and not physical enough.
- Third offensive series, Williams came over to RT and Bryant was back at LT. Williams got the blocking assignment wrong and let the player go free on Stone for the sack. Later he got beat for another sack on third down. Doesn't look near as good on that side.
- The late hit call against Chatman was awful.
- I haven't watched interviews of what happened with Camar, but Gardner did well in his place. You can see he has the flash of acceleration. Just would be nice if he lowered his shoulder sometimes - he backs out of contact and it hurts us on the runs inside.
- We heard all spring and fall about Chatman at H-Back and then never saw it. Finally busted it out today, and oh my god, wow. He is just a fantastic, punishing blocker. Focus on him every time he gets in the game. That H-Back look hasn't done the job yet with Eby in there, but Chatman blocking makes a huge difference. He sealed the edge on the 95 hard TD run.
- When we had to settle for our first FG, we had first and goal on the two. Second down, Preston keeps it on the read but should have handed that ball off. Third down, Daniels has to make that catch. But Stone he had Bailey on the slant on that play early and also Smith in the flat but couldn't pass to him because again our RT (this time White) blocks inside and leaves 0 (their best player) free to rush the passer. The blocking schemes really need to be cleaned up, it is sloppy and to this point it already cost us several sacks and now a FG instead of TD.
- The illegal downfield call on the TD they took away for K Smith was awful. Sure, White is blocking like it is a running play. But he was engaged in blocks the entire time and was really close to the 3 yards, and it had no impact at all on anything.
- On Stone's INT, yes RJ cut the route off, but still there was safety coverage, he should have never made that through. He knew it immediately and said "my bad", but that was a poor decision. That said, this should have been 24-3 at half.
- NWO and Moses were fantastic. To be honest, Moses might be our best safety. That play he made when he shoots from safety to cut down Jones for a loss at the end of the half was such a great play. Not only was he a missile, but both 34 and 8 had covered the back out of the backfield and so someone (I think 8) lost the QB responsibility. if Moses doesn't have his head in the game, that run could have gone a long way.
- Second to last play of the half should have been intentional grounding against their QB. He threw the ball out of bounds but there is no way it went out in front of the line of scrimmage.
- Paul has come such a long way in terms of his ability to play against the run. He is a really good compliment to Roberts on the other side.
- The 95 yard run is the first time all year we have blocked the H-Back run the way it is supposed to work. The HBack takes the DE, the RG seals inside, and the LG pulls so that he and the RT can block the LBs at and open the next level. Every single time we run it, Either the H-Back misses or the OL can't find a guy to block. This time, Williams and Parr both found their guys, Knighton hit the right hole, and it was a home run.
- They should have called a PI on the deep pass from Stone to K Smith. K Smith is starting to show a little bit, maybe he can emerge as that top WR.
- Don't forget the only reason we got stopped on that FG drive when we make it 27-3 is the bad snap.
- When they put their passing QB in, we sat Walker and the LB play took a big step back. 8 struggled a bit with his positioning. He got called for holding on 3rd and 18, then blocked out of the play on the next run. That said, that roughing call on Wilson was terrible. After that double penalty, we put Myzano and Kilgore at LB and they made back to back great plays to force 4th down.
- That should have been targeting on the late hit on Stone.
- The holding penalty against Williams after that call was terrible and well behind the play and had no impact at all. Terrible call that killed that drive.
- Besides Burns, the other player who really struggled when he came in was Massey. Great straight line speed, but misses a lot of tackles.

After I left the game last night, my overall feeling was "meh". I thought we played well defensively early, were sloppy defensively late, and things didn't click on offense all that well.

After re-watching, I feel a ton better about how we did. We sat Walker for Burns and that allowed them to grind out a couple of drives. When the game mattered, however, the defense was great. On offense, we had some self inflicted mistakes, but it wasn't as bad as I thought. If a couple of really bad penalties aren't called, this game is 41-10, which everyone would feel a lot better about. That was absolutely our best game of the season running the ball - Charlotte has a good DL, we were without Camar and LJ, and we still went over 200. It is a great sign of things to come. Add Osborne to that mix after the bye week, more Chatman at H-Back, and this running game should be pretty dominant the rest of the season. ECU has been much worse than expected this season and their offense is terrible. Temple is not good either. We should be 5-2 with a couple of blowouts by the time we play our next home game against Tulsa before Halloween.



All three of our tackles got abused by their defensive ends. You mentioned Sparks getting knocked back, Parr suffered the same fate at times. Too bad Stephon Wright is never going to be available it seems, his inside depth, could ensure more Chatman at H-Back. On Kerley, the coaches have preached ad nauseam, for him to high point the ball and or secure it, the message is not getting home. Speaking of Jordan, heard he had a concussion last night, per protocol, I wonder if that means he will miss East Carolina.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby JasonB » Sun Oct 01, 2023 9:26 pm

I figured it was a concussion after he never came back.

From the OL, There were missed assignments, especially early in the game. Parr didn't get pushed like Sparks. There is a significant difference between the two. PFF ratings are significantly different as well. But to your point, White and PJ both got rated pretty low at tackle.

Lots of chatter about offense, but from an efficiency perspective:

Drive 1: TD
2: TD
3: Punt (Williams sacks)
4: FG (missed blocking assignment)
5: INT (bad call pulled the TD back and then bad decision by Preston)
6: TD
7: FG (bad snap)
8: Punt (terrible holding call against Williams)
9: TD
10: Punt (running out clock at end of game)

1) Scoring on 6 out of 10 drives isn't bad at all. Keep in mind that Charlotte goes at a very slow pace - pre clock rules and against decent paced teams, we would get 14 or 15 possessions every game, which leads to a lot more points. 34 points on 10 drives is nice, anything over 3 is great on points per drive.

2) According to Beta Rank (which excludes the lower competition like the PV game), we are 31st in offensive beta rank in the country, first in conference. Drive efficiency is 12th, also first in conference. Explosive rank is 92, which is very meh and I think what has people most concerned. Play efficiency is 12th in the country (first). We are up to 42 now in effective rush (4th in conference), and 35 in effective pass (second in conference). The fact that our non-scoring drives are our own mistakes means there is a lot of upside to where we can be.

3) According to both FPI and Beta Rank, we are a significant favorite every game the rest of the season. We have us at over 80% chance to win against every team except Rice (77%) and Memphis (64%). None of the analytics and nobody watching these games would expect us to do anything other than run the table the rest of the season. The Beta Rank predictors are going to shift even more as the season goes along, because they only have 4 games worth of data for our new defense, and they continue using some of last season's statistics until you have 6 games worth of data.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby EastStang » Mon Oct 02, 2023 9:26 am

Offensively we scored more points against these guys than Florida an SEC team. They have a legit defense. They will not go winless this year in conference. They have no offense and we gave up points when they changed their offense to a passing offense. It took a while for us to adjust. So, we need to shore up some things, we can be 5-2 in a few weeks and on our way to a 9-3 or 10-2 record. We don't play Tulane unless both of us get to the championship game. We do have to beat Memphis and ECU and Temple and Tulsa and Navy and UNT and Rice. So, one game at a time. Our next challenge is ECU who is the best team we've ever played. If we keep that mindset, we will have a chance to have a special season.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby docabel » Mon Oct 02, 2023 3:05 pm

ZERO 3 and out series for a game ( except the last drive to run out the clock) is something we haven't seen in a long time I bet.
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Re: Thoughts on the Charlotte game

Postby malonish » Tue Oct 03, 2023 8:53 am

My favorite player was the guy with the ballcap. He sure got a lot of time in the spotlight. Good for him. He made a ton of great throws.
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