PF.com preview: Can Mustangs sink Pirates?

[PonyPride]

PF.com preview: Can Mustangs sink ECU Pirates?
SMU faces East Carolina at 6:30 (CST) Thursday

What’s the best way to approach Thursday’s SMU game at East Carolina?

On paper, it might be tempting to assume that the Mustangs (3-2 overall, 1-0 in American Athletic Conference games) will roll into Greenville, N.C., and cruise home with a win over the Pirates (1-4, 0-1).

But that mistake has been made before. A raucus crowd is expected for Thursday’s 6:30 (central time) game at Bagwell Field ant Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, and the hosts have asked their fans to show up for the nationally televised (ESPN) game in all black ECU gear.

The last time the teams met, in 2020, the Mustangs had a far superior record but ran into an ECU buzzsaw. The Pirates raced out to a 45-7 halftime lead and held on for a 52-38 win over the Ponies that was not as close as the final score.

SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee said the Mustangs expect to face an opponent that is significantly better than its record Thursday, and said he predicts a tough challenge for his team.

“I think that knowing where we’re going,” SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee said. “We need to win on the road — that’s what you have to do if you want to compete for your league (title). They probably have the best atmosphere in our league. I think if you just look at their history, last year UCF went up there and (ECU) beat (UCF) by three or four scores, I think (34-13). I know the last time SMU went up there, it was 45-7 at half, and (ECU was) a 2-6 team.”

ECU leads the all-time series between the schools, 5-4. The Pirates’ 45-24 win in 2014 was their first game in the AAC.

The Pirates’ record is not what they would like, but they have played stout competition. They opened the season with a 30-3 loss at Michigan and then fell at home to Marshall, 31-13, before heading back on the road and dropping to 0-3 with a 45-28 setback against Appalachian State. ECU got its only win so far in a 44-0 pounding of Gardnwe-Webb, before falling last week, 24-17, at Rice in the AAC opener for each team.

Lashlee said that being dismissive of the Pirates’ record would be a mistake.

“I think you look at their schedule, and it can be deceiving,” Lashlee said, “because obviously, they played at Michigan, the played at App State which — we all know how good they are and it was a tight game — they played Marshall, who just lost their first game this week … so they’ve played good people, and they lost a one-score game to open conference.”

After the loss at Rice, the Pirates regrouped during an off-week, which head coach Mike Houston said the Pirates used to analyze their performance through their first five games.

“We looked back at all the games we've played so far,” Houston said. “Obviously, you can look at some areas where we need to play better and really identify them. We scripted out practice to where we were good on good for those different situations. You look at last week's practice all three days, we really put the kids in competitive situations in doing the things we need to improve on. I thought it was a very positive week to come out of and got a lot of great, teachable film from all the things and scenarios we addressed last week.”

The blowout of Gardner-Webb skews some of the numbers for the 2023 Pirates. ECU has lost four of five, but thanks to that massacre, is only being outscored by an average of 25.6-21.0 points per game. ECU picks up more yards through the air (846) than rushing (675), but the first downs are nearly even and actually favor the ground game: 42 rushing and 40 through the air.

The Pirates have run the ball slightly better than their opponents: 135 yards per game to 121 yards per game for their opponents, with a slightly better yards-per-carry average: 3.9-3.5. But the real difference is through the air: ECU averages 169.2 passing yards per game, compared to 210.4 yards per game for its opponents, who are outgaining the Pirates and making more of their opportunities. ECU averages 5.0 yards per passing attempt and 9.6 yards per catch, while opponents bump those numbers to 7.3 yards per attempt and 12.1 yards per catch.

Unlike their NFL counterparts, college coaches are not required to release a depth chart before each game … but virtually every coach in the country does it. Houston does not. That said, many of the key players are clear.

The ECU offense is led by a pair of quarterbacks. Redshirt junior Alex Flinn (6-1, 233 pounds), a versatile multi-dimensional athlete who has played in all five games, starting three. He leads the Pirates in pass attempts (112), completions (55) — 49.1 percent — and passing yards (611), but his inaccuracy has gotten him into trouble: he has thrown five interceptions, compared to just one touchdown. Sophomore Mason Garcia (6-5, 249) also has played in all five games this season, starting the first two against Michigan and Marshall. He has been more accurate than Flinn — Garcia has completed 32 of 55 passes (58.2 percent) for 234 yards. He also has thrown a single touchdown pass, and has two interceptions.

The ECU ground game is led by junior running back Rahjai Harris (5-11, 211), who leads the Pirates in carries (57), yards (217) and rushing touchdowns (4). But he’s more of a grinder back than he is a breakaway threat, with a pedestrian average of 3.8 yards per carry and a season-long carry of 21 yards. Four Pirates have higher yards-per-carry averages (freshman Javious Bond is second on the team with 187 rushing yards and gets yards in chunks, averaging 6.7 yards per carry).

Through five games, just one Pirate has 20 receptions: senior Jaylen Johnson (6-2, 194) leads the team with 20 catches and 206 receiving yards (10.3 yards per catch). Freshman Chase Sowell (6-2, 187 — from Humble, Texas) has 15 receptions for 148 yards, while senior Jsi Hatfield has caught 14 passes for 202 yards.

The most telling stat about the passing game: in five games this season, the East Carolina offense has managed two passing touchdowns. For context: the Mustangs have 13 touchdown passes through the same five games.

The Pirates’ offensive line is, if nothing else, huge — especially on the right side of the line, where tackle Owen Murphy measures 6-6, 312, guard Jacob Sacra is listed at 6-6, 313 … and go ahead: name another team that starts a 6-7 center, as ECU does in Hampton Ergle.

ECU’s offense has been inconsistent, but like many, is at its best when it shows balance: in their only win of the season, the Pirates ran for 182 yards and threw for 184 against Gardner-Webb.

Defensively, the Pirates consider themselves a 4-3 team, but play a lot — maybe even a majority — of snaps in a 3-3-5 that allows an extra defensive back in coverage.

Senior free safety Julius Wood (6-1, 194) leads the defense with 36 tackles — two more than linebacker Mike Edwards’ 34.

The ECU defense has mustered four sacks through five games — one each from Edwards, cornerback Shavon Revel, defensive end Chad Stephens and linebacker Jeremy Lewis. Strong safety Teagan Wilk and cornerback Antoine Jackson have the Pirates two interceptions, while opponents have picked off seven ECU passes.

The defense forces turnovers, thanks to the creation of a lot of chances: while the ECU offense has only fumbled once, the defense has forced 13 fumbles, recovering seven.

On the other hand, the Pirates will make mistakes: they have been flagged for 43 penalties for 380 yards this season, compared to just 24 infractions called against the opposition.

[HorsePower]

I always worry when we play someone who doesn't look like much on the stat sheet -- they seem to think SMU is a good time to wake up. But if ECU's passing game really is weak, is it too simple to say "stop the run and we win"?

[HorsePower]

ECU is on pace for 4.8 passing touchdowns for the entire season. Preston Stone had 5 against Prairie View.
Hope that doesn't wake up ECU passing game tonight.