W2W4 - ECU

[JasonB]

This is a really interesting game for a variety of reasons.

- Keep in mind that SMU hasn't played well on the road this season. Yes, we played against high caliber teams, but with a young QB going into a hostile environment, who hasn't really played well on the road, it is something to watch.
- The ECU defense really changes things up, and it can be a challenge for a young QB. We have walked through some of the challenges that Preston had with the RPO against TCU. We may dial back the RPO and move to more prescribed running plays.
- That said, the bye week provides young QBs the chance to watch video and work on themselves rather than another team. I'm looking forward to seeing where Preston takes a big step forward. I am hoping that we see an improvement with his pocket presence and progressions that we see in practice. That is the biggest change I would have my eye on - does he have confidence in his line where he will sit in the pocket and run through progressions rather than back up 20 yards to buy space when it isn't necessary.
- Elsewhere, what other rotations will change on offense? Chatman saw 7 snaps at H Back against Charlotte. Does that number go up? If Kerley plays, does K Smith push him for the starting spot? On the other side, did the bye week give Hudson the opportunity to push past Moochie and Brinson and become the starter? Hudson and Brinson both had over 20 snaps against Charlotte and both had more than Moochie, who was the starter at the beginning of the season. We need someone to step up and be "the guy" at WR, and I'm interested to see if Hudson used the bye week to make his move.
- ECU has an okay defense. They have played a hard schedule, so the numbers are a little skewed. They don't have the star players that Charlotte has. But they have a solid front 7. The yards per carry for the most part haven't been bad. I would expect SMU to have to grind out a running game - Rice couldn't run at all against them, and both Marshall and Michigan had 1 big run that skewed the numbers a little but only ran for 3.8 per carry even with those big runs included. They are going to start the game by forcing SMU to throw the ball in a tough road environment and load up the box. I bet that SMU throws a couple of WR screens and a deep ball early to try and open things up a bit. But don't go into this game thinking SMU is going to blow ECU off the ball and have a field day. The running game will be a grind.
- Defensively, I think we are going to match up really well against ECU. The strength of the team is the DL, and the weakness of ECU is their OL. They really struggle at the tackle position. Roberts I think is the guy to watch in this one, he may have a really huge game.
- ECU has some talent at running back. It could be a problem if the DEs are so focused on pressuring the QB that they don't stay home and leave gaps in the running game (Cowboys versus Cardinals a couple weeks ago).
- Outside of that, I think SMU will be able to handle the running game, force ECU into third and long, and then just dominate the line of scrimmage on passing downs. ECU might get creative early to try and grind things out to stay ahead of the chains, or mix in some screen passes to slow down the pass rush. But as a whole I think SMU will contain them pretty well.
- Just like on the offensive side of the ball, we always look at some freshman to step up and get more time after the bye week. I'm going to be interested to see if Kilgore grabs the starting LB spot next to Walker, and if he plays the most snaps in that spot. When Walker left the Charlotte game, Burns played in his spot, so I think they are opening things up for Kilgore to play next to Walker. Wilson played really well against Charlotte, so maybe he keeps his spot, but this is something I've got my eye on. Especially if you think ECU is going to try and grind out a running game, it might be an opportunity for the physical Kilgore to play a lot of snaps.

Overall, I think the SMU defense presents quite a challenge for ECU. ECU is going to have a tough time getting 300 yards of offense in the game, and I would be disappointed to see SMU give up 20 points. The big question is what SMU will do on the offensive side of the ball, and I think it either goes one of two directions. Either we get nervous Preston and have to grind out points in a low scoring game, or Preston and Hudson have big games. I have a feeling that with Osborne back in the lineup, we are going to see a much more settled Preston Stone. Hudson steps up to shine as the elite WR we have been looking for, the defense forces turnovers, and SMU pulls out a 42-10 win.

[GiddyUp]

Thanks for the analysis. Your summary and the score don't really line up. You make me very worried about the offense.

[Topper]

Jason your analysis is the best. But given how long Preston has been hanging around the program and given that he has now started quite a few games I have trouble thinking of him as a "young" QB anymore.

[Terry Webster]

I think that the off week gave the coaches a chance to smooth out the offense to fit Prestons strengths. I hope that things start to click a bit more this week.

[Charleston Pony]

So with an off week/extra week to prepare, this just might be a test for the coaching staff as much as anything? The extra week gives important time for nagging injuries to heel as well. Hopefully we see our guys best effort tonight.

[JasonB]

Jason your analysis is the best. But given how long Preston has been hanging around the program and given that he has now started quite a few games I have trouble thinking of him as a "young" QB anymore.

If you watch him run the offense in practice, he doesn't look like a young QB. He stays home and runs through progressions.

He needs game experience to settle him down to the point that working in the games is similar to working in practice.

My bet is that with a week off working on his own game instead of worrying about an opponent, and getting his best OL back, we are going to start seeing the Preston we see in practice at the games.

[JasonB]

Thanks for the analysis. Your summary and the score don't really line up. You make me very worried about the offense.

I get it. Look, if Preston struggles again, it is going to be another grind it out performance from the offense, where we see consistent movement, but a lack of explosive plays and some challenges in the redzone.

My bet is that we see Preston take a big step forward this week, and that Hudson starts to really star in the offense.

[HarvCrimYaleBlue]

Ridiculously accurate assessment. Once again a great read and phenomenal insight. Maybe you can get a headset and lead the sidelines from now on?