W2W4 - Tulsa

[JasonB]

Regardless of records, there are things that make me nervous about this game. It will be colder that it has been all year, which you can't simulate and can give receivers the drops. Rooster struggles with fumbling and may be handling a wet ball. We haven't seen Preston throw in weather before, so that is a big unknown as well. Upsets happen with missed tackles, drops, penalties and turnovers, and the first weather game of the season can be a prescription for that stuff to happen. Just some things to watch for, and would cause me to believe this game ends up closer than expected.

- Overall, SMU is rated by PFF as the top team in the conference, and Tulsa is middle of the pack. They are a significantly better team that Temple, so don't expect that. And with the weather issues, this game is probably going to be closer than expected early.
- At QB, Tulsa has bounced around a little. Bradon Braxton started the season, threw two picks on the first two drives and they moved to Cardell Williams. He struggled against Washington, so Fuller started against OU and threw a bunch of picks so back to Cardell. Cardell had a big breakout game against Temple that got everyone excited, then struggled badly against FAU and got benched. Braxton started the Rice game, but is a turnover machine and they went back and forth and even played both at the same time on some drives. The bottom line is that they have a lack of stability at QB, but when they started switching back and forth and playing both at the same time, Rice gave up some chunk plays. I would expect things to be a little unconventional on Saturday.
- What is interesting is that Tulsa actually does a decent job in pass protection. They just don't have many playmakers at WR and the QBs have been poor throwing. The QBs will go ahead and scramble if the pass play breaks down.
- Tulsa is at their best offensively when they can run the ball, which they have had a bit of success at. SMU needs to stop the run and the play action on early downs to force Tulsa into clear passing situations. I expect that Tulsa will do a lot of misdirection, play action and creative things to get the running game moving. Both QBs for Tulsa are mobile, so this could look a little like the Charlotte game with the offense chewing up clock. Again, chewing up the clock and the weather may keep the game close early.
- Defensively, Tulsa is not good. The one thing to keep an eye on is their pass rush - they put pressure on the QB, led by number 00 Kopenski, who is their best player overall.
- They play a 4-2-5 defense and have trouble defending both the run and the pass. If they don't get sacks, penalties, or turnovers, they really struggle stopping the other team. They are not very deep, so if we are able to go at tempo we will really be able to take advantage of the second string.
- The corner play is especially poor. In the Temple game, we saw our receivers take a step forward. Hudson and Brinson on the right side, in particular. This is a great opportunity for Hudson and either Kerley or Smith to have big games and keep that momentum.
- Against Temple, SMU aggressively called pass plays and moved away from the RPO and wasting early downs running the ball. I'm interested to see if we take that same approach against Tulsa, especially considering the weather conditions. We could see a heavy emphasis on the running game early and then pass more in the second half as weather clears out. The Preston Stone we saw against Temple, with quick decisions getting rid of the ball, and not just going deep every time, will tear Tulsa apart and not allow their pass rush to impact the game.
- The biggest question I have is whether SMU can establish a running game early when the weather is bad and we know that Tulsa will probably play up to defend the running game. Tulsa's safeties are not great in supporting the run, so if we can get past the first level, we can break off some explosive plays.

My prediction is that SMU starts the game off slow - a couple of drops, maybe a turnover, Tulsa early adds some wrinkles to this dual QB thing that surprise us and lead to some drives that churn clock, similar to what we saw in the Charlotte game. As the second quarter rolls on, SMU starts to establish a consistent running attack. Once the weather clears, SMU blows the game open. SMU wins 38-13, covering the spread but frustrating the folks who want to see a repeat of the Temple game.

[BUS]

Thank you. Im looking for our d to do better than that. Maybe some int,s.

[carolina stang]

As always, great analysis Jason. Thanks so much for your overviews!

[PonyTime]

They won’t screw it up in front of Eric Dickerson. We got this.

[HubbaHubba]

- The biggest question I have is whether SMU can establish a running game early when the weather is bad and we know that Tulsa will probably play up to def SMU wins 38-13, covering the spread but frustrating the folks who want to see a repeat of the Temple game.

I'm not that frustrated.