W2W4 - Rice

[JasonB]

This is going to be one of the most interesting games of the season so far, from the fact that we are going up against the best passing team we have played, and we have more strong passing teams coming up with UNT and Memphis. We thought LT would be good throwing the ball, but they aren't. OU did not attack us in the passing game, were still coming into their own in that regard, and are ranked behind Rice in passing efficiency. TCU is ranked behind Rice in both total yards and efficiency, and Morris put up a very efficient game against the Mustangs. This game is going to give us a really good indication of how the defense will perform against UNT, Memphis and either Tulane or UTEP in the conference championship game.

- In the first game of the season, Rice was absolutely manhandled by UT. If you watched that game, you know that Rice was dominated on both sides of the line, and their offense couldn't get anything going. It could be a precurser of the success our outstanding DL will have against their OL, but I wouldn't put too much stock in the game - it was their first game with Daniels at QB, and they took a really conservative approach.
- The other game to ignore is UConn. Rice fumbed 3 times in that game, and as one of the coaches mentioned this week, it was a fluke. Rice dominated that game outside of the turnovers.
- That said, I also wouldn't put much stock into the result against Tulane either. Tulane dominated Rice statistically and were up 27-7 at one point. Tulane threw what was basically a pick 6 (down at the three), punted after a sack, had to settle for a field goal after a sack, and then effectively ran out the clock. Credit Rice for coming back, but Tulane was the much better team.
- What Rice can't do is run the ball. They are 124th in the country in rushing yards per game, and the efficiency ranking is poor as well. SMU is 27th in yards allowed per game on the ground with really strong efficiency numbers. The Rice running game should not be a factor.
- So, that leaves us with the Rice passing game (top 30 in the country) against the SMU pass defense (top 10 in yards and one of the top teams in efficiency). As a passer, Daniels is interesting. The analytics don't love him as a QB even though his numbers are solid, and the primary reasons are the lack of Big Time Throws and his refusal to throw to the outside. 165 of his 272 attempts are in the middle of the field (over 60% of his throws), and 57% are within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. As a comparison, Preston throws more than half of his passes to the outside, and only 46% are under 10 yards. The short throws are a problem for Rice because they just don't have the playmakers to make something happen after a short catch.
- JT really struggles the most when he is under pressure. Rice has give up 98 pressures this year (compared to 64 for SMU). That difference is even larger when you take into account that he throws a lot of short passes and gets rid of the ball much more quickly than Preston does.
- That is really the key to stopping Rice - pressure up the middle. They really struggle at Center and Guard, especially in pass protection, and it is where UT took advantage. This game is a big opportunity for Chatman, Levelston, Roberson, and Miller to have huge games. The pressure up the middle is the key to keep Rice off balance, forcing sacks, incompletions, and turnovers. The three good defenses Rice played, UT, ECU, and Tulane, each held Rice under 300 total yards. I would like to see SMU do the same.
- At receiver, McCaffrey has by far the most targets, receptions and yards on the team. Very highly regarded prospect who is putting up some great numbers. He will line up mostly in the slot, but also shifts outside a quarter of the time. His yards per reception at almost 17 is way higher than a slot receiver traditionally has, and they do a great job of mixing up throwing to him on quick slant routes and letting him run versus deeper routes over the middle. He is a stud. Connors does well out of the backfield, MacNeil and Walker are used on the outside, with MacNeil running deeper routes. The receiving corps is solid outside of McCaffrey. Groen is the big TE who provides a good safe target over the middle. Outside of McCaffrey, none of them are big play threats but can contribute to a possession passing game, especially when Daniels has the chance to get into rhythm.
- One thing to watch for SMU is our depth, especially at safety. McCaffrey does most of his damage over the middle of the field. If Crossley doesn't play again, and with McMorris being out, Sanders will get most of the snaps at nickel and be backed up by McGill. Sanders has been fantastic and has gotten better every game, but this is his first test with a ton of snaps against a stud player. If he can take McCaffrey away, that eliminates most of the Rice offense. McGill needing to play more nickel back will mean Moses is going to get a ton of playing time against Rice, especially if Massey is still out, and that is another spot to watch. Hall will also end up seeing more time at safety, which is new for him. The depth at safety is going to be tested.
- Of course, SMU has looked great at both safety and with our LBs in pass defense. In theory, this is a strength versus strength matchup with McCaffrey and the Rice TE across the middle versus our safeties and LBs. I do think that this is an area SMU can control for the most part, and eliminate some of the short easy routes, which will allow the interior DL to take advantage of a bad interior OL and get to the QB pretty frequently. There will be opportunities for negative plays (sacks and turnovers) and SMU needs to take advantage.
- On the other side of the ball, Rice is 97th in passing yards allowed, 73rd in rushing yards allowed, and the efficiency levels for both are bad. This is another area where the matchup for Rice is bad - they are one of the worst pass efficiency defenses in the country, and SMU is one of the best. Rice has improved a bit over the last few games, but honestly it is mostly because their offense has been able to sustain long play drives in the second half which cuts down on the number of possessions per game for each team. And they played against Tulsa and ECU, two really bad offensive teams. They have one solid DT a solid edge, a solid LB, a solid corner and a solid S. But the other starters are just not good at all. They are not a deep team at all and play a ton of snaps. They will spend most of the game in a 4-2-5. If you remember back to the Temple game where we picked on their weakest corner, in this game, we will throw away from number 2. I expect to see SMU take the pass-first approach that we have run with for the previous two games.

This game represents a pretty nice opportunity for SMU. If you listen to a lot of the media this week, the Tulane result has Rice perceived as a decent team, when the reality is they are not. SMU started the week as only a 9 point favorite, which has crept up to 12 even though the over has stayed below 60. In my opinion, this is actually a great matchup for SMU. I think Preston is going to have a field day on offense with the red-hot passing game lining up against a bad pass defense. I think their best receiver will line up against the strength of our defense most of the time, and our interior DL is the best one a struggling OL has played against this season.

Rice will slow the game down as much as they can to limit possessions, which might keep the score down a little bit, but SMU found a way to score over 30 against Charlotte and ECU, and Rice is much worse than they are on that side of the ball. I have SMU winning 52-13, really making a statement that they have both the best offense and best defense in the league, and starting to make some noise on a national level.

[crazy horse]

UTEP?

I assume you mean UTSA?

[Terry Webster]

That is an incredibly optimistic prediction. Hope it happens.

[JasonB]

UTEP?

I assume you mean UTSA?

Yes

[JasonB]

That is an incredibly optimistic prediction. Hope it happens.

I know. Rice will get in a shootout against UTSA, and probably beat Charlotte and FAU to close the season. But I don't think they can stop us defensively, and that matchup up the middle is going to be a huge problem for Daniels. Rice isn't bad, we just have the right pieces to make their life miserable. It will be interesting to see if they take McCaffery out of the slot and line him up wide against Megginson, that is what I would try and do. But when a pocket passer QB has constant pressure up the middle there isn't much they can do, and that is what I see happening tomorrow.

[ponyte]

Appreciate the analysis. Not disagreeing just looking at history.

Not long ago we played a weak Rice team at Ford and by the end of the game turned a third string TE into a Heisman candidate. We played a very weak Navy team in Annapolis and by the end of that game turned a third string QB, who the week before the game was a Piccolo player in the band, into a Heisman candidate. We just seem to lose disciple against teams like this.

On a different note, the last time SMU played Rice with potential post season consequences for both teams was 1980. Its been a while since this game had real meaning for the post season for both teams. Both teams have that motivation.

I am very optimistic for our D as it has been a consistent performer against all levels of talent this year.

And if Rice can't run the ball, the potential to slow the game down is diminished which helps our O.

[dalpony]

Thank you again Jason B - another outstanding analysis

[redpony]

Jason- many thanks for the analysis. We appreciate all the hard work and time you put into doing your analysis. This is a real benefit for PF readers.

[BUS]

Every week... post of the week!

[AusTxPony]

Hope you are right, Jason. I agree the Defense has turned the corner. Something magical is happening out there. You could see it in the Tulsa game. Joy, pride, seeing the field sideline to sideline and goal line to goal line. They grew into a TEAM!