Thoughts on the Rice game
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2023 11:17 pmWow, that was a close one, and it really, really shouldn't have been anywhere near that close. I will point out what happened below, and do what I can to not comment on the refs or the announcers.
- The announcers thought the SMU defense struggled. 290 yards allowed, 3 forced turnovers, 4 sacks, and 9 tackles for a loss might disagree with that. On the rice touchdown drives, they made unsustainable plays - the throw by Daniels on the first TD drive to the left side for 30 yards against blanked coverage was just a great throw. And the last TD drive the crazy throw and catch to the outside. Freak plays. The defense wasn't a problem. The objective was to hold them under 300 yards, and they did it.
- So how in the world did Rice you get 31 points? Well, blocked punt TD, a KO return that led to a 39 yard drive, and then a FG that came off of a 55 yard run. The 55 yard run was a shock - that and the screen pass that got called back came when the SMU defense stopped rallying to the football and looked slow and tired. Even though the final numbers were okay, that was the first game the defense didn't feel in control this year.
- Before the injury to Daniels, the front 4 dominated the line of scrimmage, as I thought they would before the game. Outside of the TD drive with the fluke passes, Rice had a total of 55 yards in the first half (39 of those on the TD after the KO return). Next to nothing. When Daniels went out and the backup was in, our game calling completely changed. Instead of continuing to play our base defense against that offense, we were really over-aggressive. We blitzed heavily with tight coverage, and it left 1v1 matchups all over the field. IMHO, there was no reason to do it - against our base defense, their running game wasn't going anywhere, and there was no way that kid was going to hit passes consistently. The blitzing turned it into more of a playground game, and he was able to make some plays. The 55 yard run and the screen that got called back were situations where we played over-aggressive and got caught. Hopefully this is a big lesson to both the staff and the players to take the game seriously and not get out of the great defensive techniques that got you here.
- Offensively, 484 yards isn't bad. 223 yards rushing isn't bad. But man, that was shaky. Lots of stalled drives, and lots of field goals. Some of that was due to holding penalties, which were a problem for the first time this season. But the other issue we have is that when a team drops 8 and forces us to run the ball, our running game isn't consistent enough to dominate the entire drive, and our passing game makes too many mistakes to run it twice and pass once. Daniels made a great catch on his TD, going after the ball aggressively. But Kerley waited for a ball to fall into his lap instead of jumping towards the ball and allowed the defender to break it up. The very next play I think Smith went up too soft and the defender broke up another TD pass. We had fourth downs that we should have completed. LJ dropped a ball in the flat and could have ran for a while. There are just too many mistakes in the passing game for the run-first approach to be effective.
- Preston took way too much time before making decisions. Dropping 8 certainly makes the decision making more complex. But you have to get rid of the ball quickly, when receivers are in the flow, and let them make some plays. I think we have seen the last two weeks when Preston is getting the ball out on time, there are a lot fewer drops. When he holds the ball and everyone is in a scramble drill, we see a lot more difficult passes and drops. We also played a ton more H-Back and RPO than we did the past two weeks, and Preston doesn't process things as well in that look. He is clearly at his best when RJ is in one slot, we have three WR and a RB. We aren't doing great with the RPO, and the H-Back just takes another good skill position player off the field.
- When we were ahead 14-7, we forced a punt, failed to connect on a 4th and 2, and then missed a FG after a fumble. We had the chance to blow them out in that sequence and missed the opportunity. Everything is completely different if you put the game away on those drives.
- In my game preview, I completely ignored the third part of the game - special teams. Blocked punt for a TD, a horrible failed fake punt that didn't cost us, A long KO and penalty that led to another TD, a missed FG, and a missed PAT. 18 points and a completely different game.
Lots of missed tackles, some drops, and bad special teams.... SMU got away with it, winning a game in conference on the road when they didn't play well at all. Hopefully this serves as a big time wakeup call. North Texas isn't good, but they put up yards against everyone, and if we mess around like this, they will punish us more than Rice did. And Memphis will definitely beat us if we do that stuff. Tulane only has UTSA left, and will have 0 or 1 loss at the end of the conference season. UTSA has Tulane and Rice, but odds are finishes with only 0 or 1 loss. Memphis has SMU and then two gimmies. If SMU gets a loss in conference, it is unlikely that we make the conference championship game. It would be a real shame if the best team SMU has put together since the death penalty can't get that done.
- The announcers thought the SMU defense struggled. 290 yards allowed, 3 forced turnovers, 4 sacks, and 9 tackles for a loss might disagree with that. On the rice touchdown drives, they made unsustainable plays - the throw by Daniels on the first TD drive to the left side for 30 yards against blanked coverage was just a great throw. And the last TD drive the crazy throw and catch to the outside. Freak plays. The defense wasn't a problem. The objective was to hold them under 300 yards, and they did it.
- So how in the world did Rice you get 31 points? Well, blocked punt TD, a KO return that led to a 39 yard drive, and then a FG that came off of a 55 yard run. The 55 yard run was a shock - that and the screen pass that got called back came when the SMU defense stopped rallying to the football and looked slow and tired. Even though the final numbers were okay, that was the first game the defense didn't feel in control this year.
- Before the injury to Daniels, the front 4 dominated the line of scrimmage, as I thought they would before the game. Outside of the TD drive with the fluke passes, Rice had a total of 55 yards in the first half (39 of those on the TD after the KO return). Next to nothing. When Daniels went out and the backup was in, our game calling completely changed. Instead of continuing to play our base defense against that offense, we were really over-aggressive. We blitzed heavily with tight coverage, and it left 1v1 matchups all over the field. IMHO, there was no reason to do it - against our base defense, their running game wasn't going anywhere, and there was no way that kid was going to hit passes consistently. The blitzing turned it into more of a playground game, and he was able to make some plays. The 55 yard run and the screen that got called back were situations where we played over-aggressive and got caught. Hopefully this is a big lesson to both the staff and the players to take the game seriously and not get out of the great defensive techniques that got you here.
- Offensively, 484 yards isn't bad. 223 yards rushing isn't bad. But man, that was shaky. Lots of stalled drives, and lots of field goals. Some of that was due to holding penalties, which were a problem for the first time this season. But the other issue we have is that when a team drops 8 and forces us to run the ball, our running game isn't consistent enough to dominate the entire drive, and our passing game makes too many mistakes to run it twice and pass once. Daniels made a great catch on his TD, going after the ball aggressively. But Kerley waited for a ball to fall into his lap instead of jumping towards the ball and allowed the defender to break it up. The very next play I think Smith went up too soft and the defender broke up another TD pass. We had fourth downs that we should have completed. LJ dropped a ball in the flat and could have ran for a while. There are just too many mistakes in the passing game for the run-first approach to be effective.
- Preston took way too much time before making decisions. Dropping 8 certainly makes the decision making more complex. But you have to get rid of the ball quickly, when receivers are in the flow, and let them make some plays. I think we have seen the last two weeks when Preston is getting the ball out on time, there are a lot fewer drops. When he holds the ball and everyone is in a scramble drill, we see a lot more difficult passes and drops. We also played a ton more H-Back and RPO than we did the past two weeks, and Preston doesn't process things as well in that look. He is clearly at his best when RJ is in one slot, we have three WR and a RB. We aren't doing great with the RPO, and the H-Back just takes another good skill position player off the field.
- When we were ahead 14-7, we forced a punt, failed to connect on a 4th and 2, and then missed a FG after a fumble. We had the chance to blow them out in that sequence and missed the opportunity. Everything is completely different if you put the game away on those drives.
- In my game preview, I completely ignored the third part of the game - special teams. Blocked punt for a TD, a horrible failed fake punt that didn't cost us, A long KO and penalty that led to another TD, a missed FG, and a missed PAT. 18 points and a completely different game.
Lots of missed tackles, some drops, and bad special teams.... SMU got away with it, winning a game in conference on the road when they didn't play well at all. Hopefully this serves as a big time wakeup call. North Texas isn't good, but they put up yards against everyone, and if we mess around like this, they will punish us more than Rice did. And Memphis will definitely beat us if we do that stuff. Tulane only has UTSA left, and will have 0 or 1 loss at the end of the conference season. UTSA has Tulane and Rice, but odds are finishes with only 0 or 1 loss. Memphis has SMU and then two gimmies. If SMU gets a loss in conference, it is unlikely that we make the conference championship game. It would be a real shame if the best team SMU has put together since the death penalty can't get that done.