W2W4 - North Texas

[JasonB]

After a close win at Rice last week, how will SMU fare against UNT? I'm going to assume that Stone is out, so expect a little nervous energy and plenty of away support at Ford Stadium Friday evening. This might be a little closer game than we would like.

- Keep in mind that headed into the game, UNT is coming off losing to three of the top teams in the AAC in close games - Tulane won by 7, Memphis by 3, and UTSA by 8. The only game UNT lost by double digits was their opener to Cal, where Chandler Rogers didn't start. That history wouldn't lead you to predict a blowout.
- Offensively, UNT runs the ball just as well as they throw it. They are 11th in total offense, 13th in passing, and 35th in rushing. Their efficiency numbers are good as well. The balance gives every team trouble, and I would not expect SMU to completely shut them down.
- Their offensive line is very good up the middle. Not as good at tackle, which leads to pressure but they make up for that by getting the ball out quickly. Rogers does a great job of throwing accurately and is at his best when he is in rhythm and making quick reads. 21 TDs with only 3 picks is obviously very good. They do give up pressures on about 30% of their dropbacks, which is a high rate, and the sack rate of 25% on hurries is also really high. Getting pressure from the edge is the way to slow the team down. If you can't get pressure, Rogers can throw a good deep ball and pick you apart short with his accuracy. I would look for another huge game from Roberts.
- The receiving corps is deep. They will play a bunch of guys, but three players stand out - Ward, Maclin, and Burns. Maclin is the deep ball threat with a 17 yard average and 11 TDs. He will be the best outside WR SMU has played against this season, and the matchup will be really interesting. Burns is the slot receiver, and Ward plays as the other outside WR.
- Maclin lines up on their left side, which means he will be going against Megginson the entire game, and this is the key matchup for SMU defensively. Sanders has been playing extremely well and shut out the main Rice WR last week, so he should be able to handle Burns in the slot. Rogers should match up well against Ward. Maclin is going to test Megginson early and often. If Megginson struggles, we could see Smoke pretty early to use his size and speed against Maclin. IMHO, this is the most important matchup of the game on defense.
- At RB, Adeyi has had a great season, and all of the backups have a high yards per carry average as well. The balanced attack really helps the offense gel. And don't sleep on Rogers ability to scramble out of the back, although he does fumble at times. The offense is at its best when they establish the pass, spread the opponent out, and then run the ball in space. Adeyi is kind of a thick back who is strong enough to get through arm tackles but does better in space than he does a full defensive front. I think SMU in our base defense will handle their running game just fine. I'm interested to see in the 4 WR sets that UNT runs if we stay in our 4-2-5 with Adimora or Wilson taking a slot player or if we actually go to a dime with 4 safeties on the field.
- The key against their offense is getting pressure. Once Rogers decides to run, he tucks it early, so if you have a spy you can pick it up and shut him down. Or he will release the ball quick to the backs and you have an opportunity for tackles for a loss. In the Tulane game, they moved the ball well early, but at some point had a negative play and drives stalled out. The QB also really wants to throw the ball quickly; the longer he holds it the better off you are. I expect SMU to press tight and rush the QB to get sacks and force him to hold the ball longer and run through progressions. We will end up giving up some deep passes to Maclin, but it is better than giving too much space and letting them creep down the field. When UNT came back against Tulane, it was because Tulane played off the WR and let the QB make easy decisions. His accuracy allowed him to tear them apart, and then they were able to run the ball with Tulane playing prevent as well. A lot of their running yards come when the other team is playing a prevent defense.
- Also, keep your eye on aggressive play calls. They went for it early and often against Tulane and recovered an onside kick. They will play aggressively with the understanding that they have to take chances in order to stay with SMU.
- Defensively, UNT really struggles. They play a 3-3-5, and while their DL and blitz can generate pressures, they don't have depth on the line and they aren't big enough up front to stop the run. Their DL is not that big and leaves a lot of gaps. Brown and Edwards are good in terms of generating pressure, but they don't have the size to defend against the run. The 3-3-5 they play is different than other systems we have seen, because really one of their safeties plays more like an LB. Usually in the 3-3-5, you try and trick the other team into running, and your 3 DL and 3 LB have the size and speed to take on blockers and allow the secondary to collapse on the ball. They don't have the size or speed to make it work, and it can be painful to watch.
- The corners of UNT are not very good either. Even though they play the 3 man front, this isn't like what we saw against Rice where they would often drop 8. They typically move players around and try to blitz, but with the lack of speed in the secondary it gets rough. If Preston were playing on Friday, he would tear this defense apart.
- The key against UNT is to be aggressive and establish the pass. If they expect you to run and you run, they will stop it - they blitz the LBs and will keep the safeties close and it puts 9 in the box. If SMU comes out with Jennings and goes to the H-Back set and is stubborn about establishing the run, IMHO it is a mistake. Spread them out, keep extra players out of the box and then the running game will be there. Or pass out of running formations. Once the team gets spread, then you can run, the safeties aren't good and you can really punish them at the second level. In the Tulane game, Tulane would run the ball just fine, but when UNT gambled and expected the run, they stopped it. When UNT dropped 8, Pratt had all day to throw and just waited for players to run free, or scrambled. When the 3-3-5 is at its best, the team has a ton of speed to read, react, and collapse. UNT doesn't have that, so they have to gamble to be successful defensively.
- With Kerley out, Hudson will move to the left, alternating with Smith, and then Brinson and Moochie will operate on the right. I'm interested to see how much of the route tree Hudson really knows, or if they will have to just kind of work him in on that side a little at a time.
- When SMU executes an RPO-based offense, they tend to send the outside WR deep and allow the Slot and TE to operate underneath. For Preston, we had moved away from that a bit as the season has progressed, in order to open up the passing game. I *think* we will see more RPO with Jennings. Remember, early in the season when he came into games, he would roll out and had a throwing option up the line that he was really good at connecting with. We might see more of those types of plays rather than the standard offense. I would expect us to take some deep shots on the outside early and make it easier to hit RJ and Bailey across the middle as the game goes along. This should allow Moochie to operate more effectively. But those receivers are going to need to make some plays early on the outside.
- On the offensive line, don't sleep on the Williams injury. He has come in and played snaps every week at both tackles. With him out, Johnson takes those snaps, and I think there is a pretty significant dropoff there. If Bryant or White go out for an extended period of time, that might be an issue.
- Another note - Clark was held out of the Rice game, which means he can play in each of the last three games and still redshirt. I would not be surprised at all to see him get some extended time at Center or Guard, especially if Parr misses the game.

This game will be really interesting to watch. Rice was the first passing team we have played this year, and we held up because the matchup was fantastic - a weak interior OL and their best WR was in the slot. This is completely different - UNT has a good interior line and their best WR matches up against our worst corner. UNT also doesn't throw interceptions, so you have to get stops by getting negative plays in the running game and sacking the QB - they are at their best in the quick read short passing game and occasionally throwing the ball deep to Maclin.

That said, we do have a better defense than Tulane - they have a very young secondary right now and played more conservative than we do. I expect us to perform better than they did.

Offensively, Jennings of course is a huge unknown. He has done well when we have seen him, and looks great in practice, but starting is completely different, and it took Preston a couple of games to settle in as a starter. If he struggles, and the defense gives up an early score, you can certainly see a situation develop where SMU presses too much and UNT gets an upset.

I don't think that will happen, however. I have SMU winning 38-24 with Jennings at QB. With the line creeping up during the week, I think bettors are assuming Stone is going to play; in that case we will score over 40. But one thing is clear - even though their defensive numbers are terrible, UNT fights, They will continue to fight all the way to the end of the game, even if SMU pulls ahead early. Don't be surprised if the game is closer than expected.

But I think what establishes SMU as the best team in the league is why I think we win this game by a larger margin than UTSA, Memphis, and Tulane - our depth on defense will allow SMU to keep the pressure on and get stops the entire game. When the other teams sent in their backups, UNT found their rhythm and came back. They shouldn't have that opportunity against us.

[JasonB]

One thing to add - I do think our special teams get cleaned up because of our added roster size when we play at home. Memphis is going to be a huge test in that regard.

[ALEX LIFESON]

After your preview and predictions against Rice last week, I don't blame you, for greatly tempering your expectations this week.

[dalpony]

Thank you JasonB - great analysis as usual - I’m in the camp who thinks that Preston will start

[Charleston Pony]

I've got that same 38-24 prediction. This game could become a track meet but I think our D will get enough stops and we might slow tempo a bit. I do think our guys will take control in the 4th quarter and win comfortably after some very uncomfortable moments

[JasonB]

After your preview and predictions against Rice last week, I don't blame you, for greatly tempering your expectations this week.

If you go back and watch the video of that game, it really was just "one of those games". On defense, there were some warning signs for sure with missed tackles, the long run at the end, and the screen that was called back. Things we haven't seen all season, and things that I don't think Symons will allow to repeat. Lots of tape to learn from.

All of that said, IMHO the offense is what regressed in that game. We should have put them away early and never looked back. The game should have been 28-7 after the first quarter, but we dropped a pass when got the ball back at 14-7, and then after we forced a fumble we had another drop and missed a FG. We had the matchups and the early events to absolutely blow them out as expected.

UNT is a completely different beast. They have found a way to play 3 straight quality opponents close after almost getting blown out in all 3 games. The interior offensive line is really good, and they have their best WR matched up against our third best starting corner. I think we will end up giving up more yards and points on defense than we have seen all season - they get 500 yards against just about everyone, and if we hold them to 400 or lower that is a great performance.

I just think our defensive depth can hold them in check, and eventually our offense will click and score enough points to make it a two score game.

[Topper]

So this game could very well be a track meet. Do we exploit their poor run defense to play keep-a-way with the time of possession or do we go to the air early and then often throughout the game in order to score as many points as possible?

[Mustangs_Maroons]

I agree. We should win this game by double digits. The key will be not to commit silly turnovers and our special teams not giving away points and/or bad field position.

[ShorePony]

Great stuff. Thank you.

[EastStang]

You know they will come after our punter. So, be prepared. And please no fake punts.

[JasonB]

So this game could very well be a track meet. Do we exploit their poor run defense to play keep-a-way with the time of possession or do we go to the air early and then often throughout the game in order to score as many points as possible?

Air first. From what I have seen, if they play you to run, they will creep the 3 LBs and a couple of safeties up and play it with numbers to keep it in check. So if you come out and run first, eventually they will adjust and get stops and get you behind the chains. If you attack the passing game, they have to drop 8 because they don't have enough speed and individual. So if they aren't playing pass, they are vulnerable. When they eventually do drop 8, the QB scramble is wide open and they don't have the athletic players - Pratt would pick up chunks of yards at a time. And then you can run against them when they are backed off the line.

If I were UNT, I would challenge Jennings to beat me and would play the run to start the game.

After Jennings proves himself, we might see a similar approach to what they did against Tulane. They would back into the 3 man rush shell defense when Tulane was on their side of the field, and Tulane would run the ball and gash them 8 yards at a time. All of a sudden, when they got to midfield, they started to run blitz post-snap out of the shell and Tulane would have a negative play, get behind the chains, and it would slow them down. Bend and don't break approach, forcing Tulane to find TDs in the redzone every time. They give up a ton of yards, but not a ton of chunk plays in the air. The chunk plays come on the ground when they are in their protect defense.