W2W4 - Memphis

[JasonB]

We are finally here. Coming into the season, we all felt like Memphis would be the big game to determine if we went to the Conference Championship, and here we are - winner is probably headed to the championship game.

- One of the keys to the game is going to be turnovers. SMU is one of the best teams in the country in protecting the ball. Memphis forces turnovers at a top 10 rate. Memphis is +6 in turnovers, which is how they stop teams and stay in games. SMU is only +3 because we don't force a ton of turnovers (or at least didn't the first half of the year).
- SMU holding onto the football is the key to the game on offense because the Memphis defense is terrible. The statistics are bad, but the analytics are bad as well. In the conference, SMU and Tulane are the top defenses, then you have UTSA, ECU, and Navy as decent. FAU is pretty bad. And then the rest are all about the same - Rice, Charlotte, Memphis, Tulsa, USF, UAB, UNT, and Temple are just terrible defensively, and SMU has averaged over 45 per game against those teams. Memphis has an equally bad run and pass defense. I would be shocked if SMU scored less than 35 points, it would take a lot of turnovers to do it.
- Memphis gives up a ton of explosive plays, and one of the reasons is that their tackling is terrible. If Memphis can clean up the tackling issue, they can keep explosive plays down, but it has been an issue all season and I wouldn't expect that to change this week.
- They play most of the game in a 4-2-5, although they will switch it up at times.
- They have one really good LB, 1 S, and one edge that will cause problems. The LB, Cantin-Arku is all over the place, will blitz some, but makes plays and forces fumbles. Blair is the Safety, and is the one player in the secondary who does a solid job supporting the run and also has 2 picks and is good in coverage. Allen is the edge player who gets a couple pressures a game, but is much better in pass rush than he is in run defense.
- The rest of the line really struggles, and they are vulnerable straight up the middle. I am guessing that JO will play tackle with Parr-Hickman-Sparks up the middle. We should be able to run the ball pretty consistently with that lineup, which dominated the second half against UNT.
- As far as the missed tackles are concerned, outside of Blair, the rest of the secondary can't tackle well at all. Do not be surprised to see more off tackle runs than we are used to seeing, as well as the pop pass and the WR screen. We want to force their safeties and corners to make plays. I also wouldn't be surprised to see more of Rooster/Wheaton - backs that can make people miss in space to try and generate explosives.
- I think because of the tackling issues, and the fact that their safeties are decent in coverage, it is going to be really critical for Preston to dump the ball off to the TE or RB in the flat. Force Memphis to come up and make plays. We saw a positive progression against Temple and Tulsa, and then a regression against Rice and UNT in this regard. The underneath passes are going to be there and Stone needs to take advantage of it rather than absorbing pressure. You can run around in the backfield against UNT and Rice, but the DL of Memphis is way more athletic than those other teams and will make you pay for it if you let them.
- Especially after the success of the Rice game, I think SMU might go run-heavy in the beginning to test things out. Running at will can really demoralize a home crowd.
- On the other side of the ball, the Memphis passing game is much more efficient than their running game.
- Memphis has a really good RB in Watson, but the OL does a much better job pass blocking than run blocking, and it impacts the consistency of their running game. I would expect Memphis to pass the ball to set up the run. Force the defense to back off and then run into space.
- The Memphis offense is going to use a TE most of the time, so they aren't going to cause the problems we saw early against UNT with 4 wide sets and having to figure out man versus zone. They are going to go 3 wide, and they don't have a ton of rotation at WR.
- Roc Taylor (3) is the main guy to watch on the outside - he is their deep threat and he also has a ton of YAC. He will have at least one explosive play in the game, it won't be avoided. Not only does he get a lot of YAC, but he is also great with pulling down contested balls.
- Opposite him they use Drake and Scates as possession WR. When they go 4 wide, Drake comes into the slot and Scates stays out wide. Scates is more of a downfield threat than Drake, but Drake is more consistent. Taylor is the guy you want to shut down as much as you can, though.
- Out of the slot, Bankumsee is their second leading WR, and makes plays both short and long. He does drop passes, however. In the slot, Sanders has been dominating everyone lately, and taking Bank out of the Memphis offense will really impact their consistency.
- While Memphis will also use the TE in the passing game, the huge threat is Watson out of the backfield. Most teams are so concerned with the WR that they don't have the ability to focus on Watson from sneaking out and he absolutely tears teams up.
- With Henigan not a running threat, I would expect a ton of man from SMU. The nickel taking out the slot option is going to be a key, but in order to allow the safeties to help on the outside WR, our LBs are going to have to be able to mark the TE and keep an eye on the RB out of the backfield. I also would not be surprised to see Memphis run 4 wides more than they usually do after watching SMU struggle with that look early against UNT.
- Speaking of Henigan, he is fantastic. High completion rate, gets rid of the ball quickly, and when he does get pressured his sack rate is pretty low. He can throw a pick or two, especially when he is feeling pressure. But if you try and blitz to generate the pressure, he will make you pay with a quick decision.
- So, that leads us to the matchup of the game. Against UNT, the DL was slow to impact the game, possibly concerned in the first half with the scrambling ability of the QB and the RBs of UNT. In the second half, we played more aggressively and had a huge impact on the game, disrupting the QB. The SMU secondary has benefited from the DL causing chaos all year, because you don't have to hold coverage as long. But the Memphis OL does a great job in pass block. As long as SMU can generate pressure, they can force Henigan into some bad decisions and disrupt the passing game. But if Seth has time to sit back and scan the field, the receivers are talented enough to get open.
- Also, keep your eye on special teams. Memphis can make some plays on KR and PR, and can punish SMU on a bad night like we had against Rice. We don't travel as many players on road games, and that can impact the special teams. I think the big thing to watch is the SMU kickoff return game. 50% of the Memphis kickoffs get returned. SMU hasn't made a big play returning kickoffs all season, but they might have a chance to in this game.

Look, while we can talk about the Memphis defense, the fact is that their only losses this year are 7 points against Missouri and 10 at home to Tulane. Sure, they looked terrible against Navy, but they won, and they beat Boise, and Tulane had to drive a huge comeback. This is a pretty good 8-2 team, and we have to play them in a road game. There is a reason why this is the matchup that probably determines who gets a spot in the conference championship game.

The road jitters we have seen from the SMU offense on the road this year could come back to bite us as well, and is probably something to keep an eye on.

However, I think we are the best team in the league, by far. The eye test would indicate that we are much better than Tulane, who already won at Memphis. The AAC hasn't seen a combo of offense and defense like SMU has since the great Cincy teams.

At the end of the day, I think the only way we lose this is special teams mistakes and turnovers. Both Mizzou and Tulane were able to contain the Memphis running game and become a pass-only team. SMU will do the same. Memphis allowed 17 pressures and 3 sacks against Tulane and a couple more sacks against Mizzou. Eventually, the DL will get to Henigan and slow the Memphis offense down. I think SMU knows what is in front of them and will come out playing this game to win, pulling away for a 38-24 victory.

[dalpony]

Thank you JasonB - once again excellent!

[BUS]

Thank you Jason!
Game are better after reading you lay out the matchups.
Go Mustangs.

[Arkpony]

Jason nailed our score but missed the Memphis college score

[JasonB]

Jason nailed our score but missed the Memphis college score

Yeah, I really thought our defensive line would cause more problems than it did. Credit to the Memphis OL.